Tetchama Investment Research: Today's Stock Strategy – US Stock Top 10 – Monday, September 21, 2026

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Today’s US Stock Strategy
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・US Stock Day-over-Day Comparison: New entries: Apple, Coinbase Global, Microsoft / Continued entries: Nvidia / Excluded: Amazon.com, Alphabet, Oracle, Mastercard

■ Today’s Conclusion (US Stock Quick Reference)
【Active Buy】Nvidia (NVDA), Microsoft (MSFT), Apple (AAPL)
【Waiting for Pullback】None
【Sell Recommendation】None
【Sell Watch】None
【Watch】Coinbase Global (COIN)
■ Long Candidates
【1】Nvidia (NVDA) ★★★★★
・Forecast Period: Approximately the next six months
・Price Movement Forecast: ↑ Rise
・Data Source: News
・Rationale: Fact: The CEO directly refuted pessimism and risks of human extinction due to AI, re-emphasizing the strength of AI infrastructure demand. Analysis: Given its overwhelming share of data center GPUs and continuous demand, the long-term growth trend is likely to remain a market focus.
・Purchase Timing: Gradual accumulation during market-wide adjustments.
・Exit Strategy: Long-term holding for at least six months until the target price is reached.
・Terminology: GPU (Graphics Processing Unit; currently the core chip essential for AI learning and inference)

【Tetchvidia AI Assessment】
Comprehensive Rating Breakdown: Performance ★★★★★ / Supply & Demand ★★★★☆ / Thematic Appeal ★★★★★ / Undervaluation ★★★☆☆ / Macro ★★★★☆
Rationale Classification: □ Earnings □ Policy □ Supply & Demand □ Short Selling □ Technical □ Institutional Investor Trends ■ News
Reason to Buy Now: AI infrastructure demand remains extremely strong, and sustained earnings growth is expected.
Maximum Risk: Supply chain constraints or moves by major customers to curb investment.
Counter-argument: If delays in ROI for AI investments by major customers become apparent, there is a risk that growth expectations will fade.
Rating Change Condition: If major cloud providers announce significant downward revisions to their capital expenditure plans.
Next Confirmation Event: 2026/09/24 08:30 Unemployment Claims
Confidence Level: High (Reason: Strong fundamentals from news and earnings outlook are aligned)

【2】Microsoft (MSFT) ★★★★☆
・Forecast Period: Approximately the next six months
・Price Movement Forecast: ↑ Rise
・Data Source: News
・Rationale: Fact: Advancing the integration of cloud services and AI platforms, strengthening its dominance in the enterprise market. Analysis: With a stable revenue base and expected full-scale AI monetization, it is likely to attract long-term institutional buying.
・Purchase Timing: Limit orders during recent minor stock price adjustments.
・Exit Strategy: Medium- to long-term holding while monitoring quarterly earnings progress.
・Terminology: Enterprise (Market for organizations and corporations such as large companies and government agencies)

【Tetchvidia AI Assessment】
Comprehensive Rating Breakdown: Performance ★★★★☆ / Supply & Demand ★★★★☆ / Thematic Appeal ★★★★☆ / Undervaluation ★★★☆☆ / Macro ★★★★☆
Rationale Classification: □ Earnings □ Policy □ Supply & Demand □ Short Selling □ Technical □ Institutional Investor Trends ■ News
Reason to Buy Now: Stable cloud business revenue and smooth monetization of AI services.
Maximum Risk: Profit margin compression due to a surge in costs for data center construction.
Counter-argument: If the adoption speed of corporate AI tools falls below expectations, it could lead to sluggish stock price performance.
Rating Change Condition: If the growth rate of the cloud business significantly misses market expectations.
Next Confirmation Event: 2026/09/24 08:30 Unemployment Claims
Confidence Level: High (Reason: News and business stability are aligned at a high level)

【3】Apple (AAPL) ★★★☆☆
・Forecast Period: Approximately the next two weeks
・Price Movement Forecast: ↑ Rise
・Data Source: News
・Rationale: Fact: Growing perception that new product sales trends and service sector revenue remain solid. Analysis: Its aspect as a defensive stock against macroeconomic uncertainty is being recognized, likely providing support for the downside.
・Purchase Timing: Buying on dips near short-term support lines.
・Exit Strategy: Short-term profit taking within two weeks or a decision to continue holding.
・Terminology: Defensive (Attributes of stocks that are less susceptible to economic fluctuations and have relatively stable performance)

【Tetchvidia AI Assessment】
Comprehensive Rating Breakdown: Performance ★★★☆☆ / Supply & Demand ★★★☆☆ / Thematic Appeal ★★★☆☆ / Undervaluation ★★★☆☆ / Macro ★★★☆☆
Rationale Classification: □ Earnings □ Policy □ Supply & Demand □ Short Selling □ Technical □ Institutional Investor Trends ■ News
Reason to Buy Now: Strong customer base and stable cash flow are being valued by the market.
Maximum Risk: Deceleration in demand for new products or geopolitical risks in the main supply chain.
Counter-argument: If replacement demand in the overall smartphone market remains sluggish, the stock price will face upward resistance.
Rating Change Condition: If negative reports regarding initial shipments of new products continue to emerge.
Next Confirmation Event: 2026/09/24 08:30 Unemployment Claims
Confidence Level: Medium (Reason: General market evaluation based on news articles)

■ Short Candidates
(None)

■ Watch Candidates
【1】Coinbase Global (COIN) ★★☆☆☆
・Forecast Period: Approximately the next two weeks
・Price Movement Forecast: ↑ Rise
・Data Source: News
・Rationale: Fact: Institutional investor entry and treasury holding trends in the crypto asset market like Bitcoin are attracting attention. Analysis: Because it is directly linked to the volatility of crypto asset prices, it is difficult to determine a clear direction, requiring careful assessment.
・Purchase Timing: Entry after confirming a clear trend.
・Exit Strategy: Due to high volatility, strictly adhere to short-term profit taking and stop-loss.
・Terminology: Volatility (An indicator representing the intensity of price fluctuations)

【Tetchvidia AI Assessment】
Comprehensive Rating Breakdown: Performance ★★☆☆☆ / Supply & Demand ★★☆☆☆ / Thematic Appeal ★★★★☆ / Undervaluation ★★☆☆☆ / Macro ★★☆☆☆
Rationale Classification: □ Earnings □ Policy □ Supply & Demand □ Short Selling □ Technical □ Institutional Investor Trends ■ News
Reason to Buy Now: It has thematic appeal where large price swings can be targeted depending on crypto asset market trends.
Maximum Risk: Sharp decline in crypto asset prices and a decrease in trading volume due to stricter regulatory environments.
Counter-argument: If moves to strengthen regulations intensify, the impact on performance will be very significant.
Rating Change Condition: If crypto asset-related bills are rejected in major countries or if stricter regulations are officially announced.
Next Confirmation Event: 2026/09/24 08:30 Unemployment Claims
Confidence Level: Low (Reason: High uncertainty as it is based on only one news article)

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Direct Related Company Watch
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Regarding today’s US Stock Top 10 companies, we list only direct business and partnership relationships with Japanese companies that can be confirmed through official announcements, timely disclosures, etc.
※ Having a business relationship is separate from stock price correlation and does not guarantee a rise.
【NVDA】

・Advantest (6857)
　Rationale: October 2025, official announcement of a technical partnership to integrate NVIDIA’s AI technology into Advantest’s semiconductor test systems. A major supplier handling the testing process for NVIDIA AI chips.
　Source: Advantest official announcement (2025/10/6)
・Tokyo Electron (8035)
　Rationale: July 2026, CEO attended a dinner for semiconductor supply chain executives during NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang’s visit to Japan. Direct supply relationship for semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
　Source: Various media reports (2026/7)
・Kioxia Holdings (285A)
　Rationale: CEO attended the same dinner. Direct supplier of NAND flash memory.
　Source: Various media reports (2026/7)
・Shin-Etsu Chemical (4063)
　Rationale: Executives attended the same dinner. Direct supplier of silicon wafers.
　Source: Various media reports (2026/7)
・Fanuc (6954)
　Rationale: July 2026, announced a formal partnership with NVIDIA in the AI robotics field.
　Source: NVIDIA/Various media reports (2026/7)
・Yaskawa Electric (6506)
　Rationale: July 2026, announced a formal partnership with NVIDIA in the AI robotics field.
　Source: NVIDIA/Various media reports (2026/7)
・Toyota Motor (7203)
　Rationale: Expansion of partnership with NVIDIA in the fields of autonomous driving and factory simulation (July 2026).
　Source: Various media reports (2026/7)
【MSFT】

・Sakura Internet (3778)
　Rationale: A core partner in Microsoft’s $10 billion investment in Japan announced in April 2026. Provides AI-focused GPU computing infrastructure (Stock price +20% on the day of announcement).
　Source: Microsoft official announcement (2026/4/3)
・SoftBank (9434)
　Rationale: Same as above, joint provider partner for AI computing infrastructure.
　Source: Microsoft official announcement (2026/4/3)
・NTT Data (9613)
　Rationale: Same as above, one of five partners for AI talent development.
　Source: Microsoft official announcement (2026/4/3)
・NEC (6701)
　Rationale: Multi-year strategic partnership started in July 2021 (ongoing). Adopted Azure as the priority cloud infrastructure, collaborating in AI/IoT fields.
　Source: Microsoft/NEC joint announcement (2021/7/13)
・Fujitsu (6702)
　Rationale: 5-year global strategic partnership announced in May 2023 (ongoing). Joint cloud development aimed at expanding the Fujitsu Uvance business.
　Source: Microsoft/Fujitsu joint announcement (2023/5/30)
・Hitachi (6501)
　Rationale: One of five partners for AI talent development in Microsoft’s $10 billion investment in Japan announced in April 2026.
　Source: Microsoft official announcement (2026/4/3)
【AAPL】

Directly related companies: Cannot be confirmed
【COIN】

Directly related companies: Cannot be confirmed
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【Disclaimer】
This report is for informational purposes only and does not recommend investment in any specific stock. Please make investment decisions at your own responsibility. ━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 by Tetchvidia
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【AI Analysis Scope】
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Information checked this time
✓ News articles related to earnings and timely disclosures
✓ Short selling balance data from Karauri Net
✓ Estimation of institutional investor trends based on volume patterns (not confirmed information like 13F)
✓ Price data for NI225, DJI, SPX, DXY, GOLD, USOIL, VIX
✓ Comparison with the previous day’s long/short/watch candidates
✓ Forex Factory economic calendar (high to medium importance indicators for USD/JPY, latest 5 items)
✓ SEC EDGAR latest 8-K (important facts) disclosure list (US stocks only, based on breaking news across all stocks)
✓ Business Insider/MarketWatch US stock-related news headlines (based on latest 12 RSS items)
Unconfirmed information (not reflected in this report)

□ Content of earnings briefings (audio/slides)
□ Analyst reports/target prices
□ Position trends in the options market
□ Confirmed institutional investor holdings (actual data from 13F/large holding reports; ARK and volume analysis are both estimates/reference information)
□ Confirmed earnings announcement date API for individual stocks (the economic calendar covers only macro indicators from Forex Factory and does not include individual company earnings announcement dates)
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