Tokyo Market Morning Outlook (Tue, 9/29) Ex-Dividend Day: US stocks adjust, led by semiconductors; slight risk-off sentiment due to rising oil prices, interest rates, and VIX

1. Market Overview (NY Market Trends)

Good morning. Today’s Tokyo market is likely to see a cautious start typical of an ex-dividend day, characterized by ‘US stock adjustment × renewed oil price hikes × rising interest rates × rising VIX × yen depreciation to the 157 range × nearly flat CME futures’.

Last night’s NY market saw

1. US stocks fall across the board (selling centered on semiconductors and growth stocks)

2. Renewed inflation concerns due to rising oil prices (WTI in the $93 range)

   • Although negotiations regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz continue, President Trump has rejected the latest proposal. → Oil prices have risen further, and ‘inflationary pressure → expectations of additional rate hikes’ are being reconsidered.

3. US interest rates rise, strengthening expectations for additional Fed rate hikes

4. VIX (Fear Index) rises to the 16 range (+over 8%)

   • VIX: 16.08 (+1.21, +8.14%) → Volatility is gradually increasing, and market sentiment is shifting from ‘pure optimism’ toward a more cautious stance.

5. Semiconductors and growth stocks are generally soft, with only NVDA bucking the trend due to a share buyback

   • NVDA: +1.68% (supported by increased share buyback)

   • AMD, TSLA, META, MDB, SNOW, etc., all fell. → Broad-based adjustment selling in growth stocks, including memory, cloud, and gaming.

NY Market (9/28) Closing Prices

• Dow: 51,481.51 (-347.11, -0.67%)

• Nasdaq: 26,820.38 (-248.34, -0.92%)

• S&P 500: 7,683.69 (-59.72, -0.77%)

• VIX: 16.08 (+8.14%)

• US 10-Year Treasury: 5.243% (up)

• Dollar-Yen: Mid-157 yen range (yen weakness maintained)

• WTI: Low $93 range (rising oil prices)

☆ What is an ex-dividend date?

An ex-dividend date is the day when investors who held shares until yesterday can still receive dividends or other rights even if they sell their shares today. Therefore, selling for profit-taking and position adjustment becomes extremely active today.

2. Summary of Major Indicators (9/29 06:12)

3. Today’s Key Points (Tokyo Market)

📈 Tailwinds/Support Factors

• CME Nikkei futures are almost flat compared to the previous day’s cash close → A downward push by the theoretical value is unavoidable on the ex-dividend date, but it is not a ‘sharp drop in US stocks,’ so it has not tilted toward excessive pessimism.

• Yen weakness maintained in the 157 range → Still a positive factor for export stocks such as automobiles and electronics. Once the semiconductor adjustment runs its course, the resilience of foreign-demand-related stocks is likely to be recognized.

• NVDA’s increased share buyback (bucking the trend) → A message to the entire semiconductor/AI theme that ‘structural growth expectations continue.’ In the Tokyo market, the perspective of targeting dips remains.

📉 Headwinds/Cautionary Factors

• SOX -1.6% and general growth stock adjustment → This is an extension of the trend in yesterday’s Tokyo market where semiconductors turned from ‘protagonists to culprits,’ and the market environment remains prone to selling on rallies today.

• Rising oil prices + rising interest rates + rising VIX → Renewed inflation concerns → Speculation of additional rate hikes → Headwinds for high-valuation growth stocks. Short-term trading is also prone to volatility due to rising volatility.

• Ex-dividend day (beware of declines exceeding theoretical values) → The index will theoretically see a decline of several hundred yen. → It is important to gauge the opening order book and price movement to determine if it is due to the “dividend drop” or “actual selling pressure.”

4. Today’s Scenario

◆ Main Scenario (Confidence: Medium to Medium-High)

“Decline due to ex-dividend drop → Selling on rallies prevails in semiconductors and growth stocks → Banks and insurance stocks are relatively firm due to rising interest rates”

◆ Risk Scenario

• Case where significant selling hits semiconductors and growth stocks again → Selling on rallies accelerates due to the SOX decline and the memory of yesterday’s sharp drop in the Tokyo market. → Risk that the Growth 250 index will not recover to 800pt but will instead search for new lows.

• Case where the decline continues to exceed the “theoretical value” despite it being an ex-dividend day → If selling exceeds the dividend drop due to the external environment (rising oil prices, interest rates, and VIX), the deterioration in sentiment is likely to be prolonged.

5. Sector-Specific Strategy Points

• 🟥 Semiconductors, AI, and Growth (Weak tone, caution against selling into rallies)

  • SOX down 1.6%, with growth stocks like MDB, SNOW, and RBLX seeing significant declines across the board.

  • In the Tokyo market, the trend of yesterday’s shift from ‘market leader’ to ‘market culprit’ is likely to continue. → In the short term, we see selling into rallies as dominant, so we will carefully check the strength of any rebound after the opening.

• 🟩 Banks and Insurance (Relatively strong, benefiting from rising interest rates)

  • The environment of rising US interest rates and domestic long-term rates in the 3% range is a tailwind for expectations of wider interest margins. → As this sector bucked the trend yesterday, we will keep an eye on it today as a ‘relative safe haven’.

• 🟦 Automobiles and Exports (Supported by a weak yen)

  • With the dollar-yen in the mid-157 range, the currency environment remains favorable. → Depending on the overall market tone, we will watch these as a factor supporting the index.

• 🟪 Materials, Resources, and Steel (Slightly heavy due to high oil prices and rising interest rates)

  • High oil prices are a positive for some resource stocks, but they act as a drag on cyclical stocks through inflation and rising interest rates. → Stocks without individual catalysts are likely to fall in tandem with the index.

• 🟫 High-dividend stocks/Defensive stocks (Candidates for dips after ex-dividend date)

  • Since there will be downward pressure due to the dividend payout on the ex-dividend date, if the decline is down to the ‘theoretical value + alpha,’ it is worth considering as a dip-buying opportunity. → However, since rising interest rates can be a headwind for some defensive stocks, stock selection is important.

6. Today’s Important Schedule

<Domestic>

<Overseas> (Tue, 9/29)

• 18:00 Eurozone September Consumer Confidence

• 18:00 Eurozone September Economic Sentiment Indicator

• 22:00 US S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index (July)

• 22:00 US FHFA House Price Index (July)

• 23:00 US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index (September)

• 23:00 US JOLTS Job Openings (August)

Important events for this week (Reconfirmation)

• 9/30:

  • China PMI (Manufacturing/Non-Manufacturing)

  • US ADP Employment Report

  • US Personal Income, Personal Consumption Expenditures, PCE Deflator

  • Micron Earnings (MU, key event for semiconductors)

• 10/1:

• 10/2:

  • US Employment Report

7. Summary

The main scenario for today’s Tokyo market, given the combination of the ex-dividend day, US stock adjustments, and rising oil prices, interest rates, and VIX, is likely to be “downward pressure from the theoretical dividend drop + selling on rallies in semiconductors and growth stocks.”

On the other hand, with support from the yen remaining in the 157 range, NVDA’s share buybacks, and the interest rate benefits for banks and insurance, it is likely to be a day where sector strengths and weaknesses are clearly divided rather than a full-scale risk-off environment.

While carefully assessing whether the opening decline is due to “the dividend drop or actual selling pressure,” I would like to explore the market’s “next move” for today by checking:

• The depth of the adjustment in semiconductors and growth stocks

• The shift of funds into banks, insurance, and high-dividend stocks

• The extent of the decline in the Growth 250 and TOPIX

I would like to explore the market’s “next move” for today.

Disclaimer

*This article is an individual analysis and does not recommend buying or selling.
*Information and figures may contain errors.
*Please make investment decisions at your own risk.