Outsider Trading Journal September 29, 2026 (Tue): Stocks and Gold Fall, US Interest Rates at 5.24%—Rising Oil Prices Burden Companies
■ Market Environment
Selling spread across stocks and precious metals.
In the US market on the 28th, the S&P 500 fell 0.77% to 7,683.69, and the NASDAQ Composite fell 0.92% to 26,820.38.
The Dow dropped 0.67% to 51,481.51, and the semiconductor index SOX fell 1.61%.
After rebounding in the previous trading session, the market turned downward again.
Consumer staples, healthcare, and energy rose slightly, but consumer discretionary and communication services saw declines in the high 1% range.
In Japan, the Nikkei 225 fell 486.58 yen to 65,877.62 yen, and the TOPIX fell 0.40% to 4,112.00.
Buying interest weakened not only for the Nikkei 225 but across the entire market.
This morning’s OSE Large contract is at 65,650 yen, and the CME yen-denominated contract is at 65,660 yen, both below the previous day’s cash closing price.
However, because there are individual stocks with mixed standards before and after splits, the significant decline shown cannot be taken as a direct indicator of a market crash.
In Europe, the DAX fell 0.13% and the FTSE 100 fell 0.10%, while the CAC 40 rose 0.01% and the Euro Stoxx 50 rose 0.10%, showing little movement.
In Asia, the South Korean KOSPI fell 2.70%, the Shanghai Composite fell 1.67%, and the CSI 300 fell 2.22%.
Hong Kong rose 0.54% and the Australian ASX 200 rose 0.17%, showing divergence in strength across the region.
In the commodity market, NY gold fell 4.00% to $4,148.5, and silver fell 5.83% to $61.023.
Copper also fell 2.34%, but WTI crude oil futures rose 0.98% to $93.32.
The US 10-year Treasury yield was 5.243%, and the Japanese 10-year yield was 3.103%.
The dollar-yen rate was 157.378 yen.
The VIX rose 8.07% to 16.07, and MOVE, which indicates expected volatility in bonds, rose 6.06% to 101.82.
The Japan VI reached 27.51, an increase of 35.52%.
It was a morning marked by caution regarding interest rates and price movements, in addition to falling stock prices. [1][8]
■ Outlook for This Morning
Companies face two burdens: raw material costs and financing costs.
If crude oil prices rise, it affects fuel and transportation costs, and if interest rates rise, conditions for new borrowing and refinancing become stricter.
Companies that struggle to pass costs on to sales prices will have to absorb the increased expenses from their profits.
For companies continuing to invest in growth, securing long-term funding is also critical.
On the other hand, information regarding the financial strength of individual companies has emerged.
NVIDIA announced on the 28th that it would add $150 billion to its share buyback program.
The remaining authorized amount is $235 billion, and the company expects to execute this through fiscal year 2028.
The company’s stock rose 1.68%, contrasting with the falling semiconductor index.
However, the authorized amount is not the actual amount repurchased.
The entire announced amount did not necessarily become stock demand on that day. [2]
Meta fell 4.79%, Intel fell 5.67%, and Arm fell 8.70%.
Even within the same AI/semiconductor theme, stock price movements are not uniform.
With caution toward indices and individual company news overlapping, the direction of capital is diverging.
Today’s Japanese market will also be influenced by both the decline in overseas semiconductor stocks and supportive news for individual stocks. [1]
In US-China trade, there were moves to ease costs.
The USTR announced on the 27th that it had recommended approximately $30 billion worth of non-sensitive items from each side for future tariff treatment improvements.
This includes agricultural products, medical equipment, and household goods.
If tariff burdens on these items decrease, it would work to suppress corporate procurement and consumer goods prices, contrary to the effect of rising oil prices.
However, this is the scale of trade subject to the proposal, not an announcement that an equivalent tax cut has been immediately implemented.
Domestic procedures and the timing of application will determine the effect. [3]
Middle East supply concerns, interest rate burdens, and trade easing factors coexist.
Not all companies with falling stock prices have seen their profits deteriorate, nor does the ability of a company to announce a buyback guarantee the strength of the entire market.
There is a divergence in financing conditions and the ability of companies to absorb increased costs.
■ Macro Brief
Why gold fell on a morning of rising oil prices
While oil rose, gold fell 4%.
This price movement shows that on a day with strong inflation concerns, gold does not necessarily rise in the same direction.
Reuters cited inflation concerns due to rising oil prices, expectations of monetary tightening, and rising dollar and US Treasury yields as the background for gold selling during trading on the 28th. [4]
What the market is concerned about is not just the rate of price increases.
How central banks respond to those prices and the interest rates at which companies and households borrow funds also change asset valuations.
If high oil prices persist and the timing of monetary easing is delayed, it could weigh on both stocks and gold simultaneously.
This morning, not only gold and silver but also stocks fell, and US long-term interest rates rose to high levels. [1]
The Fed raised its policy rate to 3.75–4.00% on September 16.
The Bank of Japan’s rate is around 1.25%, and the ECB’s deposit facility rate is 2.50%.
If oil prices continue to rise, the early interest rate cuts expected by borrowers will be difficult to achieve.
However, central banks do not decide their next rate hikes based solely on oil price movements. [5]
ECB President Lagarde explained on the 28th that while the Eurozone’s August headline inflation rate was 3.2%, the index excluding food and energy was 2.4%.
Significant secondary effects on wages have not yet been seen, and the growth in compensation per employee fell from 3.6% in the first quarter to 3.3% in the second quarter.
There is a range in how much energy price increases spread to other prices. [6]
For companies, if they can pass on high fuel costs to sales prices, they can protect their earnings, but this puts pressure on household spending.
If they cannot pass on the costs, profits will be eroded, potentially reducing their capacity for investment and hiring.
With the addition of high interest rates, the cost of deferring these burdens through borrowing also increases.
One cannot judge that inflationary pressure has weakened just by looking at the decline in gold.
These price movements reflect how oil, prices, and interest rates are affecting companies and asset prices through different channels.
■ Credit Spreads
The US high-yield bond OAS from FRED, which could be confirmed, was 2.80% as of September 24.
This is an expansion of 7bp from 2.73% on the 23rd, and an expansion of 10bp from 2.70% on the 17th, exactly one week ago.
The investment-grade bond OAS was 0.79% on the same day.
This was an expansion of 2bp from the previous reading and 1bp from one week ago. During the period that could be confirmed, the risk premium for lower-credit corporate bonds rose more significantly than for investment-grade bonds. [7]
However, this observation is as of the 24th, and it has not yet been confirmed how the corporate bond market reacted to the stock price decline on the 28th.
In its review on the 25th, the Bank of Japan pointed out that the targets for private credit loans and fund designs have diversified, changing the nature of the risks.
Japanese financial institutions and institutional investors are also involved through investments and loans, and apart from public corporate bonds, lending conditions and liquidity terms have become points of contention. [9]
■ Sources and Data Standards
[1] Market data obtained 9/29 06:01–06:04 JST
[2] NVIDIA company release, 9/28 07:00 ET: https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2026/09/28/3369756/0/en/nvidia-announces-a-150-billion-share-repurchase-authorization-increase.html
[3] USTR, 9/27: https://ustr.gov/about/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2026/september/ambassador-greer-issues-statement-announcement-recommendations-us-china-board-trade
[4] Reuters, 9/28 during trading: https://www.marketscreener.com/news/gold-hits-seven-week-low-as-oil-surge-fuels-rate-hike-bets-ce785adcde89f322
[5] FRB: https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260916a.htm / BOJ: https://www.boj.or.jp/ / ECB: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/economic-bulletin/html/eb202606.en.html
[6] ECB President, 9/28 testimony: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/key/date/2026/html/ecb.sp260928~a875675544.lv.html
[7] FRED official public values, Phase 2 confirmed. Not newly acquired via API. HY: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/BAMLH0A0HYM2 / IG: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/data/BAMLC0A0CM
[8] JPX, 9/29 split adjustment: https://www.jpx.co.jp/news/2020/20260915-01.html
[9] BOJ Review, 9/25: https://www.boj.or.jp/research/wps_rev/rev_2026/rev26j12.htm
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