[NAV Forecast] WCM Next & World's Best: Market on alert due to rising oil prices and US Treasury yields; both funds expected to decline due to tech stock sell-off (9/29 Analysis)
Good morning, this is TOMMY_JUNE.
In today’s US market, the three major indices all retreated as uncertainty surrounding Iran’s peace agreement, rising oil prices, and higher US Treasury yields—driven by expectations of additional rate hikes—weighed on sentiment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 347 points, and the S&P 500 recorded its largest percentage drop since August 20. With interest rates rising due to renewed inflation concerns, market focus shifted from corporate earnings to valuations, creating a strong headwind for tech stocks. Amid this risk-off environment, both funds are facing significant downward pressure on their NAV forecasts.
1. Summary of NAV Forecasts (Announced 9/29)
These are estimates based on confirmed closing prices in overseas markets. In addition to stock price factors, currency factors also had a negative impact (-0.21%), leading to a grim forecast for both funds.
2. Contribution Analysis by Stock (Stock Price Factor)
On a local stock price basis, the overall trend was weak.
■ WCM Next Generation
Following the decline in semiconductor stocks in the Asian market, Samsung Electronics plummeted (-5.43%), which significantly dragged down the fund as a whole. While major holdings like Siemens Energy (-1.21%) and TSMC (-1.00%) also fell into negative territory, SharkNinja (+2.39%) performed well, but the subtotal contribution of the top 10 stocks remained negative (-0.37%).
■ World’s Best
Declines in top holdings 3i Group (-1.09%) and Microsoft (-1.35%) weighed on the entire portfolio. Although Medline (+1.07%) and Coca-Cola Europacific (+1.12%) provided some support, they were unable to offset the overall downward pressure, resulting in a total contribution of -0.04% for the top 10 stocks.
3. Deep Dive: Factors Behind Notable Stock Movements
Here is an explanation of the recent background for stocks that showed significant movement in last night’s market.
4. Today’s Summary: Investment Perspective
Today was a day where rising oil prices, driven by Middle East risks such as the situation in Iran, and “rising US Treasury yields,” accompanied by inflation concerns and expectations of additional rate hikes, diminished the appeal of stocks across the entire market.
WCM Next was hit hard by adjustments in tech and semiconductor-related stocks, led by a sharp drop in Samsung Electronics, resulting in a significant negative impact from stock price factors. World’s Best also faced a difficult outcome, with major growth stocks generally exposed to selling pressure.
The current market environment is extremely sensitive to interest rate trends, with some pointing out that bonds are reaching levels where they appear ‘quite attractive compared to stocks.’ For both funds, which have high ratios of tech stocks, we have entered a phase where valuation adjustments driven by overall market interest rate outlooks are more likely to generate short-term volatility than individual company news. While continuing to monitor crude oil price trends and the actions of the FRB, a calm stance that does not overreact to market sentiment is required.
TOMMY_JUNE
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