[10/19 Gold Market Analysis] Despite AI stock sell-offs and $100 oil, gold holds firm in the $4,180 range | Battle in the upper half of the range
Last weekend (10/16), gold traded in a $51 range between $4,147 and $4,198 amid risk-off factors including a sharp drop in US stocks and rising oil prices. The week started with an orderly rise from $4,176 to $4,185. Here are this week’s key points, organized by charts and data.
📊 Yesterday’s (10/16) market data
💡 Terminology Note:
VIX is the ‘US stock fear index,’ and GVZ is the ‘gold version of the fear index.’ The higher the number, the more the market expects prices to move significantly in the future.
Highlights: ‘Stocks are in turmoil, gold is calm’
• VIX surged +21.45%, indicating significant volatility in the stock market
• Meanwhile, GVZ remained almost flat at +1.07% • In other words, expectations of ‘panic-driven price movements’ have not yet spread to the gold market
Even with the sharp drop in stocks, gold has not been panic-sold or panic-bought. This indicates that gold is currently maintaining a ‘calm range-bound market’.
📈 Technical Analysis
① Daily chart (market environment): Downtrend continues
• Downtrend continues from the August high near $4,700 • Price is below the downward-sloping 20MA (moving average) and Bollinger Band centerline • RSI 46.6: Neutral, slightly weak, neither overbought nor oversold • ATR 67.9: Declining = The range of price movement is narrowing
💡
Terminology Note
ATR is a number representing ‘how much a single candlestick typically moves.’ A decline is a sign that the market is heading toward ‘the calm before the storm’ or ‘stability.’ ② 1-hour chart (recent waves): Rebounded from $4,100 to form a range
• Rebounded from near $4,100 on the 15th • Since then, it has traded in a range of $4,147–$4,198 and is currently positioned in the upper half • RSI is 56.4, neutral to slightly strong
🎯 Important Price Zones (Scenarios)
Early week movement • Orderly rise from $4,176 to $4,185 • ATR is small at 3.34, with no sharp fluctuations • Current price is near $4,181, moving steadily along the 5-minute chart’s centerline
🌍 Fundamentals (Notable News)
① US stocks plummet: AI stock sell-off + rising oil prices
According to Reuters, the Nasdaq fell significantly by -2.1%, and -4.5% for the week. Selling in AI-related stocks and rising oil prices acted as a drag. ②
Fed Governor Warsh does not specify decision for October meetingWith the direction of rate hikes or cuts unclear, the dollar weakened, and gold rose to near $4,178. 💡 Gold is a non-interest-bearing asset. When the dollar weakens or the outlook for interest rates becomes uncertain, it tends to be bought.
③ Oil hits $100 range, tensions in the Strait of Hormuz
US Central Command confirmed that a container ship hit by an Iranian projectile has sunk. Oil has entered the $100 range, and geopolitical risk is being factored in once again.
④ US economic indicators: Generally strong (for September)
All exceeded expectations. The strength in prices is a factor that makes it difficult for interest rates to fall, which could also act as a material to cap gold’s upside.
🔭 Outlook and Points to Note for This Week
1. Basic range assumption: High probability of continued battle between $4,147 and $4,198 2. Upside breakout scenario: A clear break above $4,198.62 puts $4,230–$4,240 in view 3. Downside breakout scenario: Beware of a re-test of $4,100 if it falls below $4,147.15 4. Oil/Strait of Hormuz: Note that if oil stays above $100, inflation concerns may make it difficult for interest rates to fall 5. US stock movement: If the AI stock sell-off continues, VIX may rise further, potentially dragging gold along with it 6. Fed statements/October meeting: If the direction of interest rates becomes clear, gold is likely to move significantly via the dollar market
⚠️ Beware of “gap openings” at the start of the week
Depending on weekend news, the Monday opening price may deviate (gap) from the Friday closing price. Please keep your positions at a reasonable size.
🧭 Morning Gold Volatility Check (10/19 JST)
Verdict: 2/4 → 〇 Operation possible (70% lot size recommended)
The VIX is nearing 20 and has exceeded 22 during the day, with AI stock selling and oil prices over $100 overlapping. Because there is a risk that the number of averaging positions could pile up quickly due to sudden changes, I will be particularly cautious about breaking below 4,147 and will operate carefully with 70% lot size.
✅ Summary
• Gold is moving in the upper half of the 4,147–4,198 range, around 4,181 at the start of the week
• Daily chart shows a continuing downtrend, 1-hour chart is ranging
• Stock fear index (VIX) has surged, but gold fear index (GVZ) remains calm
• Breaking above 4,198.62 or below 4,147.15 is the key to the next direction
※This article is for informational purposes only and is not an invitation or advice to invest. Please make final trading decisions at your own risk.
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⚠️ Disclaimer
The contents of this article are the author’s personal views and do not constitute investment advice or guarantee profits. FX trading involves risks. Please make final decisions at your own risk and within the scope of your surplus funds. We cannot be held responsible for any damages incurred based on this information.
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