Interest rates live updates: Fifth dose of pain set to crush millions of Aussies, lone voice tips RBA reprieve

You probably haven’t heard of Phil O’Donoghue. But if you’re a mortgage holder, he might be your new hero by the end of this blog post.

First, some context.

Reuters surveyed 32 economists in the lead-up to today’s rate decision, asking them what they think the outcome will be.

Thirty-one tipped a hike.

The one exception? O’Donoghue.

Deutsche Bank’s chief Australian economist believes the RBA will shock the market by leaving rates on hold at 4.60 per cent, although he admitted the central bank has a “free hit” to hike again.

His argument is that the September inflation figures that came out last week and really pushed up expectations of a hike today were largely in line with economists’ – and, indeed, the RBA’s – forecasts.

RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser effectively said as much shortly after the data was released.

“These numbers are broadly in line, my take is, with market expectations and, candidly, where we thought it would be as well,” he told a Senate hearing.

O’Donoghue says the September rate hike has given the RBA a few weeks of breathing room to wait for some more data before its final decision of the year on December 8.

“There will be fresh information about Q4 inflation, and there should be a clearer post-midterms outlook for global oil prices,” he said, per the Australian Financial Review.

“We are hopeful the board will come to its own conclusion rather than rely on the public ‘echo chamber’,” he added.