LIVE: RBA interest rate November 2026 announcement

The RBA board will make its announcement at 2.30pm (Australian Eastern Daylight Time), with a fifth 25-basis-point hike for this year almost a certainty.

Herron Todd White managing director Gavin Hulcombe says four successive rate increases this year have had a much bigger impact on the investment property market than was appreciated because borrowers were already coming off a much higher base.

He says that while the increases in the cash rate totalled only one percentage point, they represented about a 20 per cent increase in borrowing costs.

“That’s actually a 20 per cent increase in the interest bill that people will be paying on an investment property,” says Hulcombe.

He says higher mortgage costs have also become a significant drag on purchasing power and are one of the key reasons the market has cooled.

While housing shortages and migration have helped drive the boom, affordability is now the dominant force in the market.

He argues the post-pandemic period, where property values doubled in five to six years and achieved double-digit annual growth, was never sustainable. Rising interest rates have now exposed those affordability pressures.

“It’s not normal for residential values to double in five to six years,” he says.

CBA says inflation is running higher than the RBA expected only a few months ago, with higher energy costs, the global AI investment boom and domestic capacity constraints contributing to the problem.

ANZ tipped back-to-back hikes in September due to higher global energy prices and concerns that inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict will persist.

Westpac says the risks of another hike – most likely in February – have increased given the conflict in the Middle East could escalate further, lifting energy prices more than expected.

NAB says inflation continues to present challenges for the Reserve Bank, particularly given the surge in global energy costs.

The majority of financial experts expect a hike today after factoring in last week’s Consumer Price Index report that found inflation was running higher than expected.

Finder’s latest cash rate survey of 40 experts and economists found 75 per cent tip the RBA to hike the cash rate to 4.85 per cent, the highest since the Global Financial Crisis.

Finder home loan expert Richard Whitten says that since January the cash rate will have climbed 1.25 percentage points, with most “borrowers feeling every one of them”.

“Lenders have been pretty quick to pass on each of these hikes. If you haven’t already, now is the time to call your bank and ask for a better rate, or compare home loans to see if you could be paying less,” Whitten says.

This year’s series of rate hikes is costing Australian households thousands in extra mortgage repayments. Another increase today will add to the burden.

Compared with the start of the year, Australians with the average home loan size of $730,719 will have to pay $538 more per month – $6,460 more per year – if the cash rate increases for a fifth time today.

That could have paid for up to six months of groceries for an average family of four or a modest domestic holiday.

Those with a $1,000,000 mortgage will see their repayments rise by $737 per month – a huge $8,840 per year – compared to what they were paying in January 2026.

Domain has spoken to mortgage holders who say they’ve increased work hours and cut spending to keep up with higher repayments.

One says his wife has moved from part-time to full-time work to help cover the extra mortgage repayments, reducing the quality of family time with their teenage children.

“For 12 years I’ve been the main breadwinner, and my wife has been the main carer for the kids,” he says. “Now she’s working full-time, she’s just not as available for them, and that’s been a real adjustment for our family.”

Thanks for joining us today on Melbourne Cup Day for our live blog covering the Reserve Bank of Australia’s next cash rate decision.

The RBA board will make its announcement at 2.30pm (Australian Eastern Daylight Time), with a fifth 25-basis-point hike for this year almost a certainty.

That will take the cash rate to an 18-year high of 4.85 per cent as the Reserve Bank makes another attempt to put the lid on inflation.

While Melbourne Cup is usually a time of celebration, this year it’s likely to coincide with more mortgage pain for millions of Australians.