Will Apple Catch Up To The Mag 7?

Apple shares climbed late last week on Wall Street’s growing belief that the company may have defused one of its biggest political risks, the ongoing tariff standoff with the Trump administration.

The breakthrough comes after Apple announced an eye-popping $600 billion investment in the United States, a figure that instantly turned heads in Washington and on Wall Street.

While massive, the move positions Apple to sidestep the administration’s threat of a 100% tariff on imported semiconductors.

Key Points

• Apple’s $600 billion U.S. investment shields it from steep semiconductor tariffs, clearing a major overhang.

• Despite the rally, Apple still trails most Magnificent 7 peers in 2025 due to slower AI momentum.

• Closing the performance gap will require a flawless iPhone launch.

White House vs Apple

For years, the White House has pushed to repatriate manufacturing, especially in high-tech sectors like semiconductors, where America’s share of global production has slipped to about 12%. Apple, heavily reliant on overseas assembly in China, India, and Vietnam, had been a prime target.

The investment effectively shields Apple from paying new tariffs on iPhones shipped to the U.S. from India.

That protection comes just as the company heads into what could be one of its strongest iPhone cycles in years, with production set to ramp up ahead of a fall launch.

Apple price targets were raised accordingly, implying confidence that this shift could add billions in shareholder value over time.

A Shift in Risk, but Not All Risks

Tariffs have been a drag on Apple’s stock this year, keeping shareholders in the red despite this week’s rally. The reliance on offshore manufacturing, while cost-effective, exposed the company to geopolitical risks that investors have been closely watching.

The tariff reprieve doesn’t erase every concern. Apple still faces a credibility gap in the artificial intelligence race, where rivals like Microsoft and Google have made splashier moves. And while the $600 billion investment should ease near-term trade tensions, it also raises questions about the company’s capital allocation and return on investment over the next decade.

Still, lifting the tariff overhang allows Apple to focus on its core businesses, from the iPhone and Mac to its fast-growing services segment, without the constant threat of sudden cost shocks from Washington.

Can Apple Catch the Magnificent 7 This Year?

Whether Apple can match or surpass the performance of the Magnificent 7 in 2025 will hinge on execution in two key areas: the iPhone cycle and AI integration.

As of now, Apple lags most of its Mag 7 peers in year-to-date gains, partly because those companies, particularly Nvidia, Meta, and Microsoft, have been direct beneficiaries of the AI boom.

If the fall iPhone refresh delivers stronger-than-expected upgrade demand, and if Apple makes credible AI announcements that extend beyond on-device features to ecosystem-wide integration, the stock could narrow the gap.

However, with peers already posting double-digit gains fueled by secular AI tailwinds, Apple would need a near-flawless second half to truly catch up.