Among the first lessons any great investor learns is “Don’t Fight The Fed.” Simply put, it means when the Fed is accommodative and engaging in quantitative easing, money is cheap and economies boom. Some call this the Fed Put because as markets fall, the Federal Reserve acts swiftly to provide liquid support by buying bonds.
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By many measures, the stock market is overextended now yet calls for a correction have vanished with the wind in recent weeks.
Within a few weeks, though, we expect the market will find a plateau and turnaround. If it does top as expected and start a new downtrend, one index above all others could be the top performer in 2024.
Retail investors are conditioned to focus on gains but those who have been around the block and made a fortune focus first on downside risks.
That focus is one of the reasons why so many buy Berkshire Hathaway. After all, when the stock market fell by 20% in 2022, Berkshire treaded water and essentially stayed flat.
When markets fall, they seem to go down in sync. It’s one of the key insights into markets that many ordinary investors fail to spot, the correlation between markets.
Similarly, this year you’ll see the S&P 500 up 25%, and the NASDAQ up closer to 45%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average up too.
Altria has fallen off many investors’ watchlists and with good reason. If any stock falls squarely into the category of sin stock, it’s the maker of Marlboro cigarettes. The tobacco manufacturer has been plagued with competition, regulatory obstacles, and a general trend towards increased wellness.
Imagine selling a product that comes with a government warning encouraging users not to buy it,
A couple of decades ago, eBay stock was all the rage. Buyers and sellers couldn’t get enough of the platform, transacting in a wide range of goods, and investors couldn’t get enough of the stock. When PayPal was spun out, eBay became a whole lot less interesting to investors, and today it stands virtually ignored.
A famous book on business was titled Barbarians at the Gate, documenting the leveraged buyout of RJR Nabisco. If nothing else, it highlights how just the sniff of an opportunity to make money can drive money seekers to make wild decisions.
Some giant businesses have been on the receiving end of similar threats to their solvency as invaders attempt to take their share.
When a stock has soared 63% for the year it’s a risky proposition to step in the way of the momentum freight train and short it, but sometimes the highest flying stocks create setups for the biggest crashes. One social media stock that went on a huge run this year falls squarely into that category.
David Einhorn, the esteemed founder of Greenlight Capital, is widely recognized for making a killing during the Great Recession when he shorted the market. Nowadays, the investment world is curious about where Einhorn finds potential in the current market, particularly which stocks in his portfolio are poised for significant growth.
While the S&P 500 rallied from its October lows, crude oil prices and the shares of energy companies like Conoco Phillips, have declined. This trend, however, may present an investment opportunity as undervalued assets like COP become attractive.
Conoco Phillips’ stock, tracking the oil futures, showed a decline until a notable recovery in mid-December,