【My take on this morning's economy】Released last night, the US factory business sentiment figure rose to 55.5. However, about two-thirds of the accompanying comments were …

One news item for this morning

At midnight today Japan time, the figure indicating the state of US factory business was released. It is called the ISM Manufacturing PMI, a score created from surveys of companies, where anything above 50 indicates a favorable business environment. October was 55.5, up from 54.5 in September. It has been above 50 for 10 consecutive months.

There is another figure in the same announcement. In the breakdown of comments added by respondents (which are not included in the score calculation), 34% were positive and 66% were negative. In September, it was 40% and 60% respectively. The issuing organization also noted that the overall atmosphere has worsened for three consecutive months.

“Slow delivery” results in a higher score

The most common reasons for negative comments were price fluctuations and the length of time it takes for materials to arrive.

This score is the average of five items: new orders, production, employment, inventories, and supplier deliveries. The rule is that the slower the delivery, the higher the score. This is based on the idea that when the economy is good and orders increase, deliveries tend to be delayed. This item was 59.1 in October, the highest of the five items. Stories from companies struggling with slow material deliveries appear as negative in the comments, but are included in the higher side of the score.

However, even if you exclude this item and average the remaining four, it is about 54.6 (my calculation), which is still above 50. Furthermore, this item is almost unchanged from 59.0 in September, so the increase in October is mostly due to production and inventories.

Voices saying orders are strong but procurement is difficult

Limiting it to comments about production, positive responses were double the negative ones. One respondent wrote that while the volume and price of raw materials used for AI and data centers are tough, orders are strong and they are managing to keep things running by putting effort into procurement. It is just one person’s voice, but my interpretation is close to this.

From the figure of 55.5, one can read that “factories are busy.” However, I could not read it as “factories are having an easier time.”

A word for today

Today is Culture Day, and the Tokyo stock market is closed. Tomorrow morning, when Tokyo opens, it will be around the time when voting for the US midterm elections begins to close.

※ This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend the purchase or sale of any specific financial product. Please make investment decisions at your own risk.

A detailed summary of the previous day’s market is also written in “Okane Bye-Bye Man’s Economic News” (https://okanebye-man.com).

ichido-studio｜Morning Economic Column｜Tuesday, November 3, 2026