10/22 | US Tech Rebounds: Will the Strength of AI Investment Spread to Japanese Stocks?

Today’s Market Verdict: PLUS

1 Rising Candidate | 0 Falling Candidates

Will the rebound in US tech support Japanese semiconductor and AI capital investment-related stocks? Meanwhile, for individual stocks, I have selected Okano Valve Manufacturing, which announced an upward revision to its core business and a dividend increase.
October 22 (Thursday) is a regular trading day for the JPX. While the improved assessment of US AI demand is a tailwind, the focus is on whether buying will continue after Japanese stocks open higher. In addition to the strength of domestic IR, I will make my judgment by layering in how much reaction occurred in the regular market and the overnight PTS.
PLUS indicates the direction of the official candidates and is not a prediction of a rise in the Nikkei Stock Average. JPX Calendar

*Because the automatic posting did not function correctly, this has been updated after the market close on 10/22. (No numbers have been altered.)

1. Verification of Previous Prediction Results | October 21 (Wednesday)

Closing Price Direction Match Rate: 3 out of 3 stocks, 100%

I checked the 3 stocks from the previous article against the confirmed daily charts for October 21. While the closing price direction matched for all 3 stocks, there were differences in the price movement after the opening.

Ferrotec (6890) | Rising Prediction: Match

October 20 Closing Price
8,300 yen
October 21 OHLC
Opening 8,750 yen / High 8,760 yen / Low 8,320 yen / Close 8,390 yen
Closing Price Change Rate
+1.08%
Opening Change Rate
+5.42%
Open to Close
-4.11%
The closing price was +1.08% compared to the previous day, but the opening was +5.42%, and the change from opening to closing was -4.11%. Even if the closing price direction matched, it cannot be evaluated that buying continued after the high opening.

Aeon Kyushu (2653) | Rising Prediction: Match

October 20 Closing Price
2,705 yen
October 21 OHLC
Opening 2,706 yen / High 2,708 yen / Low 2,697 yen / Close 2,708 yen
Closing Price Change Rate
+0.11%
Opening Change Rate
+0.04%
Open to Close
+0.07%
The closing price was +0.11% compared to the previous day, and the change from opening to closing was +0.07%. The direction matched, but the magnitude of the reaction was limited.

Change Holdings (3962) | Falling Prediction: Match

October 20 Closing Price
985 yen
October 21 OHLC
Opening 970 yen / High 978 yen / Low 922 yen / Close 924 yen
Closing Price Change Rate
-6.19%
Opening Change Rate
-1.52%
Open to Close
-4.74%
The closing price was -6.19% compared to the previous day, and the change from opening to closing was -4.74%. For this stock, it moved in the predicted direction even after the opening.
The closing price direction matched 3/3. It moved in the predicted direction after the opening in 2/3 cases. I treat these two as separate evaluations. This time as well, I will confirm separately the high opening following the rebound in the US market and the subsequent continuation of the rise.

2. US Market Summary | October 21 (Wednesday)

Major indices rose, and it was a day where semiconductors and tech were relatively strong.
NY Dow
52,856.09 (+0.69%)
S&P 500
7,757.17 (+0.58%)

🟢 NASDAQ Composite | 26,702.86 (+1.05%)

🟢 SOX Semiconductor Index | 11,505.56 (approx. +2%)

I confirmed the SOX closing price on the official Nasdaq site, and I am noting the change rate as approximately +2% in line with Reuters’ post-close reporting. The rise rates of the NASDAQ and SOX exceeded that of the S&P 500. From the price movement, it can be read that buying has returned to semiconductor and AI-related stocks. The US information technology sector was +1.6%, and communication services were -1.3%, showing a difference between sectors. Reuters article, Nasdaq official SOX history

Main factors in the US market

What supported the rise were corporate announcements indicating AI demand.
Supermicro raised its preliminary quarterly revenue forecast from the previous $14.5–$15.5 billion to $18.5–$19.5 billion, citing increased demand for AI platforms. Its gross margin outlook has also improved. While these are unaudited preliminary figures, they are concrete evidence of strong server demand. Supermicro Company Announcement
SpaceX also announced revenue growth and profitability, centered on its AI and communications divisions. In the US market, evaluations of AI-related stocks improved following both companies’ announcements, with SpaceX rising 7.8% and Supermicro 9.6%. SpaceX Earnings Original Text, Reuters Article
On the other hand, the weakness in US communication services involves different factors, such as competitive concerns among telecom companies and earnings outlooks for video streaming companies. To apply the same reasons for decline to Japanese telecom stocks as a whole, it is necessary to verify their specific business conditions.

Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Commodity Markets

US 10-Year Treasury Yield
5.13% (Reference yield from US Treasury’s October 21 CMT publication; previous day 5.12%)
USD/JPY
158.18 yen (Reference level from post-US market close reports. Not the exchange’s final closing price)
WTI Crude Oil Futures
$97.15 (Reported settlement price for December delivery, -0.68% from previous day)
Brent Crude Oil Futures
$108.82 (Reported settlement price, +$0.03 from previous day. Reference value as the contract month of the original report cannot be confirmed)
VIX Index
16.68 (Previous day 17.31)
The decline in the VIX indicates a retreat in caution, but US long-term interest rates remain in the 5% range. Even with strong AI-related demand, concerns regarding financing costs and investment recovery have not disappeared. Crude oil also shows a slight decline from the previous day while maintaining a high price level, reflecting the burden of fuel and transportation costs. US Treasury, Cboe Official VIX Daily, Post-US Market Close Report, WTI Contract Month Verification

Additional Materials After US Market Close

Meta: Continued AI capital expenditure is a support for semiconductors and peripheral components

Meta’s revenue increased by 26% year-on-year. Its 2026 capital expenditure outlook is now $135–$145 billion, raising the previous lower bound of $130 billion.
For Japanese stocks, this could be a tailwind through demand expectations for semiconductor manufacturing equipment, inspection tools, and communication/power-related components for data centers. It is necessary to check each company’s disclosures to see when investment plans will translate into actual orders and profits.
Meta’s own quarterly free cash flow was in the red. While increased investment creates business opportunities for the supply side, the investing entity faces the burden of recovery and profitability. We do not evaluate all companies the same way just because they are AI-related. Meta Company Announcement

Lam Research: Evaluate equipment demand by combining performance and future outlook

Lam Research’s quarterly revenue was approximately $8.22 billion. It expects $8.6 billion for the next quarter, with a range of plus or minus $400 million.
This is material to confirm semiconductor equipment demand, but for Japanese equipment-related stocks, it is also important to compare this with expectations already priced into the stock. After the market opens, we want to see if the rise in equipment and inspection-related stocks spreads beyond just a few large-cap stocks and whether buying continues. Lam Research Company Announcement

Tesla: View EV and battery-related stocks by separating volume and profitability

Tesla’s quarterly revenue was $28.046 billion, almost the same level as the previous year’s $28.095 billion. Operating profit decreased from $1.624 billion the previous year to $718 million.
When looking at Japanese EV, battery, and component-related stocks, it is necessary to check not only expectations for production and investment expansion but also prices, product mix, and profit margins. The rebound in US tech as a whole cannot be substituted for profit improvement across the entire EV sector. Tesla Earnings Materials

3. Results of All-Market and All-Sector Scan

Domestically, we cross-referenced 122 saved disclosures from October 21 against our ledger, extracting materials such as earnings revisions, financial results, monthly reports, M&A, and unauthorized access to determine their relevance. Internationally, in addition to US corporate earnings and capital expenditure, we reviewed materials related to Europe, Asia, commodities, and policy. This does not mean we covered every individual news item for all listed companies or the definitive percentage change for all 11 US sectors.
In Europe, EssilorLuxottica’s third-quarter revenue increased by 9.0% year-on-year, and its wearable division also grew. Meanwhile, Michelin explained the weakness in demand for tires for new vehicles and maintained its full-year outlook. When looking at related Japanese companies, it is also necessary to separate demand sectors from price and product mix. Both companies’ announcements were made on October 20, and we have not used them as a basis for officially adopting Japanese stocks as newly published material. EssilorLuxottica Company Announcement, Michelin Company Announcement

🟢 Official Rise Candidate | Okano Valve Mfg. Co. (6492)

Expected Direction
Rise
Impact Level
Medium
Oct 21 TSE Closing Price
13,200 yen
On October 21 at 15:30, the company raised its full-year earnings and dividend forecasts for the fiscal year ending September 2026.
Consolidated Operating Profit Forecast
1.95 billion yen → 2.60 billion yen (+33.3%)
Consolidated Ordinary Profit Forecast
2.05 billion yen → 2.74 billion yen (+33.7%)
Annual Dividend Forecast
80 yen → 110 yen (30 yen dividend increase)
Additional orders from periodic inspections of Shimane Nuclear Power Plant Unit 2, decommissioning-related work at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant, and the advancement of projects related to Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Plant Unit 7 led to increased sales. High-profit additional orders and high operating rates are also boosting profits.We value the fact that the profit outlook for the core business has specifically increased, rather than relying solely on asset sale gains.Okano Valve Disclosure Original Text
Overnight PTS Reaction
Final price 13,200 yen / 0.00% vs TSE closing price
High 13,600 yen / Low 13,007 yen / Volume 4,800 shares
This is the JAPANNEXT October 21 overnight session summary. Since the CSV does not contain individual final execution times, we do not treat it as having confirmed that time. Overnight volume is approximately 38.7% of the TSE daytime volume of 12,400 shares.JAPANNEXT Official Daily Data
Basis for Expected Rise
There is a new improvement in profit and dividend outlooks, and the announcement time was at the end of regular trading. The previous closing price fell from 14,040 yen on October 14 to 13,200 yen on the 21st, so no clear preemptive rise is observed. Combined with the overnight reaction, we emphasized the possibility that the revision of core business profits will remain in the evaluation for the next day.Stock Price Time Series
However, we did not judge it as unreflected just because the final PTS price was flat. The announcement and market close were both at 15:30, and we cannot confirm the second-by-second distribution or reflection in the closing auction. Also, it stalled from the overnight high, indicating divided opinions on the positive news. Based on these factors, we set the impact level to “Medium” and do not place excessive confidence in the continuation of the rise.
Profit increases due to the advancement of projects may be accompanied by a reaction in the next period. We also checked the company’s April 22 upward revision, but the timing and scale of the revision were different, and a comparison based on the next business day’s confirmed OHLC is insufficient. We do not estimate the reaction rate from past cases.
Confirmation Conditions After Opening
We will check if buying continues around 13,200 yen or if there is movement to test the overnight high of 13,600 yen. If it falls below the 13,000 yen level and cannot recover, we will be wary of a development where buying for the positive news does not continue. We do not evaluate it as “as expected” just because it started high.

Adoption Rejected | Yamazen (8051)

The operating profit forecast was revised upward by 19.3% from 15 billion yen to 17.9 billion yen. Demand improvements in AI, semiconductors, and data centers are appearing in orders and shipments, and the connection with the US trend is concrete.
However, the announcement was at 14:00 on the 21st, and there was still trading time left in the Tokyo market. The closing price on the same day was +3.84%, and it rose to 1,980 yen overnight, +1.59% compared to the TSE closing price of 1,949 yen.Comparing the material and existing reactions, we judged that there is insufficient basis to formally predict an additional rise the next day. Yamazen Disclosure Original Text

Adoption Rejected | Strike Group (6196) / Taski HD (166A)

Full-year operating profit forecasts were raised by approximately 25.3% and 24.1%, respectively. Meanwhile, overnight PTS rose by +11.82% and +12.79% compared to TSE closing prices.
This is not a mechanical exclusion once a certain rise rate is exceeded. In this case, we could not confirm additional grounds exceeding the existing reaction to the profit revision, and we rejected them, emphasizing the risk of profit-taking after a high opening.Strike Disclosure, Taski HD Disclosure

Adoption Rejected | Digital Arts (2326)

At 16:00, the company announced traces of unauthorized access to its cloud service operating environment, etc. A decline in trust as a security company is a headwind. On the other hand, the company has not confirmed any information leakage or secondary damage to the outside at the time of the announcement, and the impact on business performance is under scrutiny.
Overnight PTS reacted to 5,490 yen, -13.00% compared to the TSE closing price of 6,310 yen, with a volume of 29,700 shares. While the existence of negative material can be confirmed, there is a lack of grounds to judge that additional declines will be dominant after this reaction, so we will not adopt it as a formal candidate for a decline.Disclosure Original Text

Adoption Rejected | Seven Industry (7896)

The interim ordinary profit forecast was revised from a surplus of 13 million yen to a deficit of 52 million yen. However, the full-year forecast remains unchanged, and recovery is expected through price revisions and fixed cost reviews. With the mixture of a first-half deterioration and a full-year recovery plan, and the thinness of price formation with a daytime volume of 800 shares, we passed on a formal decline prediction. This judgment is not based solely on the PTS loss.Disclosure Original Text

4. Sector Auxiliary Signals

Semiconductor/AI Capital Investment Related | Tailwind, but be careful after a high opening

The central view is that a sense of security regarding AI demand will support Japan’s semiconductor and capital investment-related sectors.
US companies’ sales outlooks and capital investment plans are material for improving demand expectations for related domestic industries. For stocks accompanied by individual company order and earnings revisions, there is a possibility that overseas market conditions and domestic materials will point in the same direction.
However, even if bought at the opening, subsequent price movements will be evaluated separately. Confirmation points include whether semiconductors and related components are relatively strong against TOPIX, whether the rise spreads to other related stocks, and whether the price can be maintained after the opening.
The opposite development is when buying does not continue after a high opening and selling on rallies becomes dominant. If the rise in semiconductors is limited to a few stocks, or if the strength of related stocks is lost after the opening, we will not maintain a bullish stance based solely on the US rebound.

5. Today’s Summary

Today’s formal candidate is one rising stock: Okano Valve Manufacturing (6492). There are no formal candidates for a decline.
In the US, the evaluation of AI demand has improved, and a tailwind is also conceivable for Japan’s semiconductor and capital investment-related sectors. However, overseas rises cannot be directly substituted for profit increases of individual Japanese companies. We will look at the strength of demand, the burden of investment recovery, and price reactions that have already occurred.
Individually, we selected Okano Valve, which has specific upward revisions to its core business and dividend increases. The fact that the rise did not continue in overnight PTS and the reaction to the advancement of projects are risks.Today’s confirmation point is whether buying continues and the price can be maintained after the opening, rather than the magnitude of the opening rise.
This report is a reconstructed version of pre-market information that was not made public, collated after the fact with materials published before 7:00 AM on October 22 and market information from the previous night. The candidates confirmed this time have not been retroactively registered as predictions issued at 7:00 AM at the time or as existing formal prediction history. It does not demonstrate a track record of successful automatic acquisition and distribution by 7:00 AM.
This report is a market analysis based on public information and does not recommend buying or selling.
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