November 14, 2026

11/14/26 (Sat) | Nvidia's Market Cap Falls Below $4 Trillion—The 17th Earnings Report Approaches with the Face of AI Still Vacant | VEST

Voice of Economic Signals Today / IR Bar
November 14, 2026 (Sat) Major Economic and Financial News Report

📄 A PDF version of this article can be downloaded from the end of the article.

🗞️ This Morning’s Reading

Nvidia’s market cap falls below $4 trillion; this week was the worst since last April. The SOX index fell over 6% at one point, and AMD dropped 8.75%. Earnings are on the 17th.
The US 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.14% (peaking at 5.17%). October PPI was lower than expected, but the pricing for a December rate hike remains unchanged.
The NY Dow rose 0.10%, the S&P 500 fell 0.40%, and the Nasdaq fell 0.91%. For the week, all three indices rose over 2%.
The dollar-yen reached 160.06 yen at one point and ended the week at 159.71 yen. The euro-dollar hit a 19-month low.
The Nikkei Stock Average closed at 61,142 yen, up 6.5% for the week (TOPIX up 6.3%). On the 13th, the gains narrowed from the 997-yen rise at the morning close.
The US FAA grounded all flights nationwide due to a communication failure. The order was lifted after about 4 hours, and there are no signs of an attack.
Brent is at $95.84 and WTI is at $88.56. The IEA forecasts a supply surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day from October to December. Gold fell 4.5% for the week.

Stocks recovered over the week, but the face of AI remains vacant.
Interest is beginning to shift from the narrative of demand to the narrative of interest rates and costs.

📊 This Week’s Market Summary

■ Stocks
NY Dow 52,347.55 (+0.10% from previous day) Weekly +2.1%
S&P 500 7,561.67 (−0.40% from previous day) Weekly +2.5%
Nasdaq 25,136.27 (−0.91% from previous day) Weekly +2.3%
Nikkei 225 61,142.35 (+0.53% from previous day) Weekly +6.5%
TOPIX 3,941.57 (+0.11% from previous day) Weekly +6.3%

■ Interest Rates
US 10-Year Treasury 5.14% (+1bp from previous day) Weekly approx. +27bp
US 30-Year Treasury 5.47% (— from previous day) Weekly approx. +21bp
Japan 10-Year Treasury 2.860% (+7bp from previous day) Weekly approx. +22.5bp

■ Foreign Exchange
Dollar-Yen 159.71 yen (0.13 yen stronger yen from previous day) Weekly 1.23 yen weaker yen
Euro-Yen 176.10 yen (0.60 yen stronger yen from previous day) Weekly 0.46 yen stronger yen

■ Commodities
Brent (Jan contract) $95.84 (+0.02% from previous day) Weekly −2.5%
WTI (Dec contract) $88.56 (−0.20% from previous day) Weekly −2.5%
Gold (COMEX near-term) $3,882.02 (−0.08% from previous day) Weekly −4.5%
Silver (near-term) $48.65 (approx. −2.8% from previous day) Weekly approx. −6%

Note: Weekly figures are compared to the previous Friday (11/6) closing price. Nikkei and TOPIX are also compared Friday to Friday. Interest rates are shown in bp difference from the previous day, and exchange rates are shown in yen price range. Crude oil and gold are compared by near-term contracts. US 30-year Treasury data was omitted as the previous day’s difference could not be confirmed. Silver figures are estimates including errors due to differences in contract months.

This week, stocks recovered, while interest rates and the dollar moved first.
Gold faced headwinds, and Japan’s long-term interest rate solidified in the 2.8% range.

🔴 Top 5 Important News

① [AI/Semiconductors] Nvidia’s market cap falls below $4 trillion—SOX index fell over 6% at one point, AMD down 8.75%

AI and semiconductor stocks were sold off in the US market on the 13th,
and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell by over 6% at one point.
Nvidia’s market capitalization fell below $4 trillion (approx. 639 trillion yen),
making this the worst week since April of last year.
AMD fell 8.75% to $534.06 (approx. 85,300 yen),
and Cisco, which raised its full-year outlook after the close the previous day, also fell 6.2%.
Nvidia announced the resignation of CEO Jensen Huang on the 12th,
and Colette Kress will serve as interim CEO.
The earnings announcement is after the close on Tuesday the 17th,
which will be the first earnings report under the interim CEO.

📌 IR Bar Insight |
The top spot is vacant five days before earnings, and even the index is shaking by 6%.
It’s not a demand issue,
it’s a market of ‘who will explain the numbers’ 😇
The rebound before earnings isn’t relief, it’s just short covering.
Until I see the orders and guidance,
I won’t trust the semiconductor rebound.

② [US Stocks] NY Dow rises slightly, Nasdaq falls 0.91% – All three indices rose over 2% for the week

In the NY stock market on the 13th,
the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly by $50.46 (0.10%)
to $52,347.55,
the S&P 500 fell 0.40% to 7,561.67,
and the Nasdaq Composite fell 229.82 points (0.91%)
to close at 25,136.27.

While high-tech stocks like AI-related ones were sold,
defensive and cyclical stocks saw buying.
For the week,
the Dow rose about 2.1%, the S&P 500 about 2.5%, and the Nasdaq about 2.3%,
recovering from the previous week’s sharp drop.

📌 IR Bar Insight |
Days when the Dow rises and the Nasdaq falls
are usually ‘money moving days’ 🤔
From high-tech to defensive and cyclical.
Since it’s still up over 2% for the week,
it hasn’t collapsed, it’s in the middle of a rotation.
I look at what’s being bought rather than the Nasdaq’s decline.

③ [Bonds/FRB] US 10-year yield at 5.14%, hit 5.17% – PPI lower than expected, but December rate hike pricing remains unchanged

The US 10-year Treasury yield
closed at 5.14%, up 0.01 points from the previous day,
and during trading hours it hit 5.1718%, the highest level in about a month since October 14.
The October Producer Price Index (PPI)
rose 0.3% month-on-month, below the forecast (0.4%),
and rose 6.5% year-on-year (forecast 6.6%, previous 6.3%).
NY Fed President Williams, usually known as a dove,

indicated that dealing with high inflation is necessary,
and the movement to price in additional rate hikes continued.
For the week, the 10-year bond rose about 27bp and the 2-year bond (approx. 4.86%) rose about 33bp,
with a rate hike at the December FOMC almost fully priced in.

📌 IR Bar Insight | PPI was weaker than expected, but yields didn’t fall. What the market is looking at isn’t a single indicator, but the atmosphere that ‘the authorities still want to raise rates’ 🤔 A 10-year yield over 5% is heavy for both stocks and gold. I’m in the camp of waiting with short-term bonds rather than long-term bonds until the December FOMC.

④ [Forex] Dollar-yen hit 160.06 yen, rebound sluggish due to intervention caution – Euro-dollar at 1-year 7-month low

The dollar-yen on the 13th
rose to 160.06 yen due to the rise in US long-term interest rates, but
the rebound was sluggish due to caution over currency intervention,
closing at 159.71 yen (a yen appreciation of 0.13 yen from the previous day).
It fell to 159.52 yen at one point,
and its stay in the 160 yen range was short-lived.
The euro-dollar fell for the fourth consecutive day,
hitting 1.1020 dollars at one point, the lowest level in 1 year and 7 months since April last year.
The dollar index is around 103.3, at a 19-month high.

📌 IR Bar Insight |
160 yen is a ‘staring contest line’
where both the market and the authorities are watching each other 👀
The fact that it touched it for a moment and turned back is proof that intervention caution is still working.
However, since the interest rate gap remains wide,
intervention is only buying time.
I won’t chase 160 yen, nor will I trade against it.

⑤ [Japanese Stocks/Bonds] Nikkei Average at 61,142 yen, up 3,707 yen for the week – On the 13th, gains shrank to one-third from the 997 yen rise at the morning close

The Nikkei Average on the 13th rebounded by 322.99 yen (0.53%)
to 61,142.35 yen,
and the TOPIX was up 4.24 points to 3,941.57.
AI and semiconductor stocks that were sold the previous day saw buying,
and it rose to 61,816 yen, up 997 yen at the morning close, but
the gains shrank in the afternoon session.
The top contributor was Fast Retailing,
followed by Advantest,
with the two stocks pushing the index up by about 290 yen.

On the TSE Prime, 877 stocks rose and 619 stocks fell.
For the week,
the Nikkei Average rose 3,707.58 yen (6.5%),
and the TOPIX rose about 6.3%.
The new 10-year bond yield rose 7bp to 2.860%.

📌 IR Bar Insight |
It rose nearly 1,000 yen in the morning session, and closed up 322 yen.
This ‘melting away of gains’ is the real sentiment of the current rebound 😅
Even if it jumps on short covering, it doesn’t continue from there.
I feel there aren’t many people building up positions
ahead of Nvidia’s earnings on the 17th.

▶ Other News (5 selections)

⑥ [Energy] Crude oil falls slightly for the first time in 3 days, WTI $88.56 – IEA predicts supply surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day from Oct to Dec

NY crude oil futures on the 13th fell for the first time in 3 days,
with WTI December delivery closing at $88.56 per barrel (approx. 14,100 yen), down $0.18 from the previous day.
Reports stated that Gulf shipments have recovered,
resulting in the first supply surplus since the start of the US-Iran war.
Brent January delivery was $95.84 (approx. 15,300 yen),
and both WTI and Brent fell about 2.5% for the week.
The International Energy Agency (IEA)
expects a supply surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day for the October-December quarter.

📌 IR Bar Insight |
The market, which moves $2 on a single statement,
has finally started to look at ‘supply surplus’.
It’s a straightforward tailwind for those buying fuel.
However, the spark between the US and Iran hasn’t gone out.

⑦ [US/Transportation] FAA grounds flights at airports across the US, lifted after about 4 hours—Reason was a communication failure, no signs of an attack

The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) issued an order before 4:00 PM ET on the 13th to
halt aircraft takeoffs
at airports across the US due to a communication failure.
The halt was lifted after lasting just over four hours.
The Secretary of Homeland Security stated that
there are currently no signs of a malicious attack.
US airline stocks fell in after-hours trading,
with United Airlines
closing down 1.93% at $107.20 (approx. 17,100 yen).

📌 IR Bar Insight |
You brace yourself when you hear about a nationwide flight grounding, but if the cause is a communication failure, the lasting damage to prices is small.
What matters is the follow-up.
Don’t take your eyes off the weekend news.👀

⑧ [China] New yuan-denominated loans in October saw a net decrease of 100 billion yuan—Shanghai Composite down 0.59%

China’s new yuan-denominated loans in October
saw a net decrease of 100 billion yuan.
The increase in the foreign currency reserve requirement ratio (from 4% to 6%) announced by the People’s Bank of China on the 3rd
will be applied on the 15th (Sun).
The Shanghai Composite Index ended the day down 0.59% at 3,634.35.

📌 IR Bar Insight |
A negative figure for loans means there’s no one wanting to borrow money.
China’s economy and currency are both out of sync.

⑨ [Europe] STOXX 600 hits a record high at 664.14, up about 2.4% for the week

European stocks on the 13th saw the
STOXX 600 index hit a record closing high of 664.14.
It rose about 2.4% for the week.
Meanwhile, the euro hit a 1-year and 7-month low against the dollar.
Bundesbank President Nagel
pointed out that short-term inflation expectations are rising.

📌 IR Bar Insight |
Stocks at record highs, currency at a 1-year and 7-month low.
The rise in euro-denominated stocks
is half a reflection of the strong dollar.

⑩ [Japanese Companies] SoftBank Group down 5.11% weighed down by earnings—Mitsubishi Heavy and Kawasaki Heavy sold off in disappointment over defense spending criteria

In the Tokyo market on the 13th,
SoftBank Group fell 5.11%,
becoming the top contributor to the Nikkei Average’s decline,
pushing the index down by about 154 yen.
It was reported that earnings weighed on the stock.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Kawasaki Heavy Industries
fell sharply on disappointment over the presented defense spending criteria.
On the other hand, Recruit Holdings was bought up, rising 5.06%.

📌 IR Bar Insight |
Whether it’s earnings or policy,
what determines the price is ‘what the market was expecting’.

💡 Today’s Summary & IR Bar Insight

▶ Today’s Recap

The biggest theme today is
‘approaching earnings with the face of AI still vacant’.

Nvidia’s market cap fell below $4 trillion,
and the Semiconductor Index (SOX) fell by over 6% at one point.
The US 10-year Treasury yield remained high at 5.14%,
and the pricing in of a December rate hike did not move even though the PPI was lower than expected.
The dollar-yen touched 160 yen before pulling back,
with intervention caution capping the upside.
The Nikkei Average rose 6.5% for the week,
but on the 13th, it narrowed its gains from the morning close, and the momentum of the rebound is not strong.

Meanwhile, crude oil is heavy following the IEA’s supply surplus forecast,
which is a tailwind for those bearing fuel costs.
Next week, we have Nvidia’s earnings on the 17th
and the Anthropic IPO on the 19th,
continuing the material to verify the demand and price of the AI market.

▶ Today’s ‘Hot Topics’ at IR Bar

Theme ①
No leader at Nvidia
—The 17th earnings report will test the ‘rebound’ price

Theme ②
Interest rate 5.14% / Dollar-yen 160 yen
—Even if PPI is lower than expected, rate hike expectations do not move

Theme 3
On the side where fuel costs lighten due to lower crude oil prices
—A day to sell the AI rebound and buy ANA

▶ Today’s Tailwind/Headwind Sectors

🟢 Tailwind
Industries with heavy fuel costs like airlines / Defensive stocks / Short-term bonds & MMFs
→ With the IEA’s supply surplus forecast, the heavy trend in crude oil will lighten the burden of fuel costs.
In the US market on the 13th, while high-tech stocks were sold off, buying flowed into defensive and cyclical stocks.
As long as short-term interest rates remain high, the yield on waiting capital will also be maintained.

🔴 Headwind
AI semiconductors & semiconductor manufacturing equipment / Precious metals like gold and silver / High P/E growth stocks
→ Due to Nvidia’s management vacuum and pre-earnings caution, the SOX index fell over 6% at one point.
Gold hit a 52-week low due to rising US long-term interest rates and a stronger dollar.
Non-interest-bearing assets are at a disadvantage with the 10-year bond yield above 5%.

▶ Upcoming Schedule

11/16 (Mon) Japan’s July-September GDP / China’s October economic indicators
11/17 (Tue) US October retail sales / Nvidia earnings (after market close, first under interim CEO Kress)
11/18 (Wed) FOMC minutes / Japan’s October trade statistics / Shenzhen APEC (until the 19th) / Visitor statistics
11/19 (Thu) Anthropic Nasdaq listing (scheduled)
11/20 (Fri) Japan’s October Consumer Price Index (CPI)
12/8 (Tue) – 9 (Wed) FOMC

🌅 This Morning’s Wake-up Call | ANA Holdings (9202)

▶ Why today?
The IEA expects a supply surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day in the October-December quarter, putting the company on the side where the weight of fuel costs lightens.
On the 13th, there was a nationwide ground stop in the US, but the cause was a communication failure, which was resolved in about 4 hours.
For ANA, what affects performance is fuel costs rather than US air traffic control.
Visitor statistics are also expected on the 18th.

▶ What kind of company is it?
One of the largest aviation groups in Japan, centered on All Nippon Airways (ANA).
In addition to domestic and international flights, it also handles cargo and travel businesses.
Fuel costs account for a large portion of expenses, so crude oil movements are directly linked to performance.

▶ How to buy

Listed market: Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime
Securities code: 9202
Yesterday’s closing price (reference value): 3,332 yen (11/13, +5 yen from the previous day). Up about 2.9% for the week from the 11/6 closing price of 3,237 yen
Unit shares / Minimum purchase amount: 100 shares / From approx. 333,200 yen
Reference indicators: Expected dividend 60 yen (yield approx. 1.80%), PBR approx. 1.16x
How to buy from Japan: Search for “9202” on the domestic stock trading screens of SBI Securities, Rakuten Securities, Monex Securities, etc.

▶ Chart (Main Stock)

▶ Related Stocks
United Airlines (UAL) NASDAQ / Yesterday’s closing price: $109.31 (approx. 17,500 yen) *Calculated at 1 dollar = 159.71 yen. After-hours price is $107.20 (-1.93%). From approx. 17,500 yen per share

▶ Chart (Related Stocks)

*This section is for informational purposes only and does not recommend investment in specific stocks. Please make your own investment decisions.

Notes for the morning

The nationwide ground stop on the 13th is attributed to a communication failure, but
the investigation into the cause is ongoing.
If follow-up reports emerge over the weekend,
there is a possibility that Monday’s opening will be dragged down by the after-hours decline in US airline stocks.
The interim financial results announced on October 29 showed
net profit was 67.086 billion yen, down 11.8% from the same period last year.
Although the full-year forecast was raised, current earnings are declining.
Crude oil can move by more than $2 on a single statement regarding US-Iran relations.
If crude oil rises again, the tailwind for fuel costs will fade.
The weak yen also inflates the yen-denominated cost of dollar-denominated fuel.

🛍️ Fumiya’s Shopping Memo for Today

🟢 Buy

Stock: ANA Holdings (9202)
Quantity: 900 shares
Reason: Due to the IEA’s oversupply outlook, it falls on the side where the burden of fuel costs will lighten. On the other hand, considering the follow-up on the nationwide ground stop and Monday’s opening, I kept it at a level that does not reach the baseline of 1,000 shares, with a medium to slightly high level of confidence.
Estimated amount: 3,332 yen × 900 shares = 2,998,800 yen (approx. 3 million yen)

🔴 Sell

Stock: Advantest (6857)
Quantity: 100 shares
Reason: It recovered about 9.3% in one week from the closing price of 28,015 yen on 11/6, but the substance is short covering. Ahead of Nvidia’s earnings on the 17th, the night PTS is at 29,350 yen, down over 4% from the TSE closing price.
Funds raised: 30,610 yen × 100 shares = 3,061,000 yen (approx. 3.06 million yen)

⚖️ Budget Management
Sell (3,061,000 yen) – Buy (2,998,800 yen) = +62,200 yen
Sales are slightly higher.
I am selling the AI rebound before the earnings report,
and switching to the side that benefits from lower fuel costs due to falling oil prices.

From Fumiya’s Study – A drink after finishing writing 🍺

The Nikkei 225 rose about 6.5% this week.
However, what supported the rise on the 13th was
a small number of high-priced stocks like Advantest.

The substance of that rebound was short covering.
People who had been selling semiconductors
simply bought back what they had sold,
and it does not mean new buyers have increased.
Nvidia’s earnings report is on the 17th,
and the CEO’s seat remains interim.
I decided to sell into that rebound without waiting for the earnings.

What I am adding instead isANA.
The reason is crude oil.
Brent fell about 13% the previous week and dropped further this week.
The IEA sees a supply surplus of 1.7 million barrels per day for October-December.
For those flying planes,
this means lower fuel costs.

AI is a story of “demand”,
and aviation is a story of “costs”.
I swapped one stock for another on the opposite side of the same market.

Let go of what rebounded high,
and buy the side with lower costs.

◎ Click here for the PDF version ⏬ *Fumiya Archives (November 2026)
https://note.com/fumiya_meguro/n/ne9b865ac1225

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Fumiya MEGURO – IR Bar

#IRBar #FumiyaMeguro #VEST #Nvidia #USTreasury #YenDepreciation #CrudeOil #ANA

VEST Daily Brief (IR Bar) — Global Market Signals

Date: November 14, 2026 / 261114 Sat

This article summarizes key market signals for November 14, 2026, across US and Japanese equities, Treasury yields, currencies, oil, gold and a nationwide US flight stop. This VEST issue tracks Nvidia’s market value falling below $4 trillion ahead of its November 17 earnings under interim CEO Colette Kress, the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.14% after a softer-than-expected producer price report, USD/JPY touching 160.06 yen amid intervention watch, the Nikkei 225’s 6.5% weekly gain to 61,142.35, and the FAA’s roughly four-hour ground stop blamed on a communications outage. Fumiya Meguro’s key view: rebounds into Nvidia’s earnings look fragile, so positioning may favor businesses that benefit from lower fuel costs, such as airlines, over richly valued AI hardware names.

11/14/26 (Sat) | Nvidia&#039;s Market Cap Falls Below $4 Trillion—The 17th Earnings Report Approaches with the Face of AI Still Vacant | VEST