24_The Era of 1% Policy Interest Rates. Banks Will Lend. That Is Precisely Why You Must Use Your Own Criteria.

Hello. This is Murakami from Conspire. Today, I want to talk about interest rates.
Rising interest rates are a risk that anyone borrowing with a variable rate should have known about from the start.
If you hadn’t anticipated this, please start doing so now.

Banks’ Lending Stance Has Not Changed Much

The Bank of Japan raised the policy interest rate to around 1.0% at its Monetary Policy Meeting in June 2026 [1]. Rate hikes continued thereafter, reaching around 1.25% at the September meeting, and the rate was held steady at the October meeting [1]. So, have banks stopped lending?

In my experience, their lending stance has not changed much. In a survey of investors conducted by Nomu.com Pro (Nomura Real Estate Solutions) (June 1–15, 2026, 140 valid responses), the most common answer regarding the lending stance over the previous six months was ‘no change,’ while about 30% said it had ‘become stricter’ [2].
However, I am hearing some concerning talk in the industry. At a meeting with industry groups in June 2026, the Financial Services Agency presented points of discussion regarding loans for investment condominiums from internet banks, based on a fact-finding verification conducted in 2025 [3]. I don’t know if it’s a result of that, but I’ve heard that companies selling properties at prices too high for the market are being forced to lower them.
Honestly, I think that’s only natural. Even looking at current market sentiment, there are still many properties that feel ‘too expensive’ and many companies that use such sales methods.

Two Things People Who Already Own Properties Should Do

To prepare for rising interest rates, I am currently telling my clients to do the following two things:

1. Prepare cash with cash flow in mind
Those who need to be especially careful are people like the following:
・Those who bought based on replacement cost evaluation but whose cash flow is not working out
・Those with short loan terms where out-of-pocket expenses (cash out) are expected for monthly repayments
For these people, first, make sure you have cash on hand. Depending on the situation, consider ‘partial early repayment’ to reduce your repayment amount.

2. Check with your management company to see if you can raise the rent
This is truly important. Right now, you really can raise the rent at the time of renewal. Depending on the location, rents assessed by AI are also rising rapidly.
If your expenses increase due to interest rates, increase your income through rent. In an era of inflation, this is the strength of real estate.

Be Careful of Management Companies That Don’t Propose Rent Increases

I may have said this before, but I will say it again.
You should be careful of management companies that do not propose rent increases.
Especially if you are using a ‘collection agency’ service. Management companies that only handle rent collection and remittance may not propose ways to increase the owner’s income.
Even though the market has risen, the rent has remained the same for years. That means you are missing out on income you could be getting. Please check with your management company to see how your property’s rent compares to the market.

Who Should Use Leverage and Who Should Not Buy

Those who should use leverage are those who can tolerate the risk.
Conversely, there are people who should not buy. These are people who are aiming for capital gains but only have projections that cannot withstand a negative spread—that is, a situation where loan payments exceed rental income.
If it goes up, you make a profit. But you haven’t thought about what happens when it goes down or when interest rates rise. This is truly dangerous.
The same applies to stocks. Yuta Misaki, also known as ‘Aojiru Ouji,’ publicly announced that he suffered huge losses from margin trading during the stock market crash in August 2024 [4]. Leverage can amplify your profits if things go well, but it also amplifies your losses if things go the other way.

Even So, Banks Will Lend

Finally, this is what I want to convey most.
Even so, banks will lend to you. In fact, the more income you have and the more creditworthiness you possess, the more often banks will lend you an amount that exceeds the value of the property.
But the fact that a bank will lend to you and whether you should buy that property are two completely different things.
Judge whether you should buy based on your own criteria, not the bank’s.
I believe that those who will survive in a world with interest rates are not those who can borrow, but those who can make this judgment.

This time, I wrote about what I feel on the front lines regarding policy interest rates and lending stances. If this resonates with you, I would be happy if this serves as an opportunity to review your own properties.
I will be updating this at my own pace, so I hope you read it with the casualness of a ‘President’s Monologue.’ Thank you again for today.

Reference Data
・[1] Bank of Japan, ‘Change in Guideline for Market Operations,’ decided June 16, 2026 (approx. 1.0%, applied June 17), decided September 18 (approx. 1.25%, applied September 24), October 30 ‘On the Conduct of Monetary Policy’
・[2] Nomu.com Pro (Nomura Real Estate Solutions), FY2026 18th Survey Results on Real Estate Investment (Survey period: June 1–15, 2026, 140 valid responses, published June 2026)
・[3] Financial Services Agency, ‘Opinion Exchange Meeting between New-Type Banks and the FSA’ Discussion Materials (June 19, 2026)
・[4] ‘Aojiru Ouji’ Yuta Misaki announces huge losses due to stock market crash (reported August 17, 2024) https://www.daily.co.jp/gossip/2024/08/17/0018019606.shtml

※This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend the purchase of specific properties or loan plans. Figures are as of the time of publication of each source.
I accept individual consultations regarding property selection and how to structure your current assets.