60% of S&P 500 Stocks Are in a Bear Market, With the Index Near a Record
Goldman Sachs called it a hidden bear market, but the S&P 500 sits near a record high. Understanding what that contradiction reveals about where real danger is lurking inside the index changes how you read every market update.
The S&P 500 closed at 7,568.92 on November 3, 2026, up 0.36%, leaving it 3.2% below its October 6 all-time close. In a client note reported the same day, Bobby Molavi, a Goldman Sachs trader and head of execution services for Europe, the Middle East and Africa, said about 60% of index members are in a bear market.
He called it a “hidden” bear market. The comment came from one trader’s note to clients and is separate from Goldman’s formal research forecasts.
A bear market is a drop of at least 20% from a high, and the choice of high determines the answer. Molavi’s benchmark was not published. The figure holds when measured from all-time highs, which can be years old, while a one-year measure captures only about a third of members.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) rose 0.30% to $754.35, while the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (NYSEARCA:RSP) slipped 0.33% to $219.26. After hours, SPY traded at $751.99 and RSP at $219.01.
Our Count Puts the Bear Share Just Under 60%
We checked 502 members at November 3 closes. 289 of them, or 57.6%, sit at least 20% below their all-time highs, with a median gap of 23.5%.
Against 52-week highs, only 169 members, or 33.7%, qualify, and the median gap shrinks to 13.4%. Still, 61% are at least 10% below their one-year highs, which is correction territory.
Truist (NYSE:TFC | TFC Price Prediction) shows the split. It closed at $49.41, 12.1% below its 52-week high but 28.3% below its all-time high of $68.95.
Molavi’s puzzle is that the big AI spenders and the companies receiving that money are falling together. Both are off: Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) sits 50% below its 52-week high, while Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) sits just 5.5% below its own. The Magnificent Seven have shed about $4 trillion in market value since October 15.
Why SPY and RSP Diverge
SPY weights members by market value, with its largest holding alone carrying 7.58% of assets. RSP gives every member a small, similar share, so it tracks the typical stock.
A count published October 30 tracked the index’s advance from its March 30 bottom. It found ten firms produced about 70%.
In October, RSP rose 4.95% while SPY fell 0.91%, as technology fell 8.30% and consumer staples jumped 10.94%. That rotation is why the average stock beat the index.
RSP closed 1.28% below its August 26 high close of $222.11. SPY sits 3.18% under its record close of $779.09.
Most Members Are Still Rising
Over the past month, 72.1% of members rose, with a median gain of 7.09%. This year, 67.5% are up, with a median gain of 9.34%.
Both readings hold because a stock far below an old peak can rally for a month and still count in the bear tally. The VIX, Wall Street’s fear gauge, rose to 21.15 on November 2, a level that signals high uncertainty.
ADP employment and ISM services data arrive Wednesday, November 4. October’s employment numbers arrive Friday, November 6, at 8:30 a.m. ET.
What Could Decide the SPY and RSP Gap Next
SPY concentrates its weight in the companies with the most earnings power. But an index fund leans on a few giants, and a small gap from the record can coexist with sharp declines among most other members, which is the uncomfortable pattern we walk through in a free handbook on riding a market near its highs without getting caught when it turns.
RSP has offered broader exposure this year. It is up 14.07% this year on price, ahead of SPY’s 10.01%, and it relies less on mega caps, although it tends to lag when those giants rally.
Should RSP close above $222.11 before SPY regains $779.09, broader participation is winning and the equal-weight approach gains support.
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