6M US jobs at risk: Report warns Trump’s immigration crackdown could hurt American workers
Just under two months before the November 3 midterm elections in the United States, a new report illuminated how US President Donald Trump’s widespread immigration crackdown could adversely impact American citizens. Concerning figures in an analysis by the American Civil Liberties Union (ACLU) and the American Federation of Labor and Congress of Industrial Organizations (AFL-CIO) showed how the US economy could take a major hit as the current administration continues to detain and deport immigrants increasingly.
Surprisingly, the report paints a picture completely at odds with what the Trump administration has long argued. The Republican leader and his top officials have especially pushed harder to rid the US of immigrants without legal status, while also limiting legal pathways to the country, after he returned to office in January 2025. These efforts have always been attributed to the POTUS’ “America First” agenda, arguing that foreign workers shouldn’t replace American workers. However, the recent AFL-CIO report now claims that the ongoing crackdown could actually have the opposite long-term impact on American-born professionals.
Jobs and prices impacted by US immigration crackdown
Signalling that nearly 6 million jobs could be lost due to the immigration crackdown, authors of the report suggested that rising enforcement was tied to a decline in overall employment rates in the country.
Further estimations claimed that roughly 20% of the workforce in the US construction sector could be impacted by consistent deportations, possibly triggering a loss of 1.4 million construction jobs overall, of which 860,000 would be held by American-born workers. These losses have, in turn, been linked to nearly 2,000 fewer houses being built each year in each state, in addition to an 18% surge in house prices.
The analysis even goes on to link rising prices to immigration enforcement. Recent polls, including those conducted by Reuters/Ipsos, have shown Trump and his Republican Party losing popularity among American adults over his handling of the economy and the continuous oil and gas price hikes amid the ongoing Iran war.
Citing research-based estimations from an Economic Insights and Research Consulting paper, the ACLU report stated that prices for certain products increased at a faster rate than overall inflation due to their ties to immigrant labour. As per the report, fresh milk prices rose by 9%, home health costs went up by 10.7%, lettuce prices surged 32.1%, and landscaping services soared 10.8% in the 12 months ending June 2026.
In light of the pre-existing hikes, the report noted that immigrant labour gaps would eventually mean employers have to bear more costs, which would ultimately be passed down to the consumer.
How could immigration crackdown impact US workers?
Even beyond the illegal immigration crackdown, the Trump administration has repeatedly pushed for several work visa policy overhauls. These have included replacing the H-1B lottery with a wage-weighted selection process in a bid to combat US employers “abusing” the visa program to “replace” American workers with “lower-paid foreign labour,” as per the Trump White House.
In a more recent public statement, Vice President JD Vance again emphasised on the All-In Podcast, “The H-1B should not exist to replace American workers with low-wage foreigners. It should exist to enrich the American economy.”
The AFL-CIO and ACLU report, however, makes a case for immigrants and American-born workers often working together in interconnected industries and supply chains. As a result, when businesses end up losing certain employees to work permit losses or deportation from the country, employers may be forced to cut down their operations, push back projects, or even scale back additional hiring.
“Roughly one in five workers in our country is an immigrant, spanning all sectors of the economy,” the report reads. “Targeting this large and vital segment of the workforce sharply reduces the supply of labor, threatening the ability of employers to generate revenue and cover business expenses, including the wages of any remaining workers.”
How much do immigrants contribute to US economy?
According to an American Immigration Council analysis of the US Census Bureau’s American Community Survey in 2023, immigrants accounted for almost 48 million out of a population of roughly 335 million people in the US that year. The figures showed that foreign nationals significantly contributed to the country’s economic prowess by paying about $653 billion in local, state, and federal taxes.
On top of that, the Cato Institute released a new report earlier this year, supporting the claims that immigrants are a fiscal boon to the country. Examining the impact of immigrants on the US government’s budget, the report disclosed that for each year from 1994 to 2023, the US immigrant population generated more in taxes than they received in benefits from all levels of government.
Immigrants are shown to have created a “cumulative fiscal surplus of 14.5 trillion in real 2024 US dollars, including $3.9 trillion in savings on interest on the debt,” over that period. The Cato Institute even goes on to indicate that the US government public debt at all levels would be at least 205% of gross domestic product (GDP), nearly twice its 2023 level, if it weren’t for immigrants.
On the flip side, the ACLU and AFL-CIO report contends that increased enforcement across the United States has triggered an “economy of fear,” suggesting that workers were staying home, businesses were losing customers, and customers were cutting spending.
Back in May, the University of Pennsylvania released results of a study estimating that US Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids would result in 8.1 billion fewer visits for American businesses. This would, in turn, lead to losses of between $3 and $14 billion per year.
The ACLU report alludes to those figures and argues that the impact would surpass immigrant households and even affect the local and national economies due to loss in tax revenue.
Estimating an alternative to the ongoing woes, the ACLU and AFL-CIO report lays out that if the current Republican-led administration facilitates easier pathways to US citizenship instead of clamping down on them, the country’s GDP could increase by nearly $2 trillion over a decade, in addition to wages being lifted and existing working conditions being improved.
Disclaimer: This article is intended for informational purposes only and is based on publicly available immigration guidance. Rules and deadlines are subject to change; readers should verify current requirements directly with USCIS or consult a qualified immigration attorney before making decisions based on this information. Financial Express is not responsible for any decisions made based on this information.