7 Wall Street analysts explain why you should buy the post-earnings dip in SpaceX stock

• SpaceX’s post-earnings slump could present a major opportunity for investors to buy the dip.

• Wall Street analysts are sticking to their bullish forecasts for SpaceX as the stock tumbles.

• While capex is a concern, forecasters point to the firm’s strong AI growth prospects.

The market thrilled with SpaceX’s first-ever earnings report — but big slide on Wednesday might be a buy-the-dip opportunity for investors based on what Wall Street analysts are saying about their outlook.

SpaceX shares tanked after the company posted its results for the second quarter, with the falling as much as 13% before paring some losses. The stock has plunged 43% from its recent peak and is down 24% from the IPO price of $135 per share.

But the decline hasn’t fazed many top forecasters on Wall Street, with most analysts sticking to their bullish predictions and calling for more than 100% upside in the stock over the medium-term horizon.

The main culprit driving SpaceX’s decline on Wednesday appears to be the company’s massive AI spend, with capital expenditures soaring over 500% to $18.4 billion for the quarter.

AI capex has been an increasingly scrutinized metric in the tech sector, as investors eye high valuations and question about the billions being spent on AI. Tesla, Alphabet, and Meta are among the group of tech giants that have been punished for lofty AI investment plans recently.

Otherwise, SpaceX’s second-quarter results were a mixed bag for investors. The company reported $7.8 billion in revenue, blowing past expectations. But the firm also recorded a $541 million net loss, adding to the $4.9 billion loss it reported last year.

Indeed, retail investors were apparently already piling into the post-earnings drop. According to data from Vanda Research, “retail appear to be reading the results very differently” than institutions.

The firm, which tracks retail flows into single stocks and ETFs, said that retail investors bought $22.7 millionof SpaceX shares in the first hour of trading on Wednesday, three times the average amount in that window on other trading days.

“In short, this tells us that retail dip-buying has not stepped back after the earnings sell-off — they’ve become even more opportunistic, with today’s net buying reaching 122% of the average opening hour during listing week.”

Here’s what Wall Street analysts have to say about SpaceX following its earnings report — and why many remain believers in the space giant’s ambitious goals:

Morgan Stanley: Modestly positive outlook

Rating: Overweight (reiterate)

Price target: $300 (+163% upside)

Analysts said they believed consensus forecasts for SpaceX’s earnings could rise “modestly” for the next 12 to 18 months, adding that the direction looked “modestly positive” through 2027.

Morgan Stanley raised its revenue forecast for the firm to $45 billion to $48 billion by the end of 2026, and from $91 billion to $102 billion by the end of the following year.

Still, higher earnings estimates are “offset” by the company’s high capex, the bank said, explaining why it reiterated its $300 price target.

Morgan Stanley also raised its capex estimates from $48 billion to $64 billion for 2026 and from $129 billion to $163 billion for 2027, citing “faster compute build.”

Oppenheimer: Expect faster monetization and AI buildout

Rating: Outperform (reiterate)

Price target: $250 (+119% upside)

Though “elevated” capex remains a “major concern,” Oppenheimer said it was raising earnings estimates for the stock due to faster-than-expected AI build and monetization. The firm now expects SpaceX to hit $1 trilion in revenue by the end of 2032, about three years earlier than initially expected.

“Execution risk is high, but SPCX excels in this. We continue to expect extreme stock and operational volatility,” analysts wrote in a client note. “SPCX continues to leverage its engineering superiority to build new technologies better and faster than anyone else.”

Cantor: Near-term pressure, long-term upside

Rating: Overweight (reiterate)

Price target: $246 (+116% upside)

Cantor said it expected the stock to “moderately underperform” on Wednesday amid concern about SpaceX’s capex guidance, though the firm still sees “material upside” to SpaceX’s AI business.

Analysts pointed to the company’s higher-than-expected compute capacity by the end of the year, as well as recent growth in Starlink.

“Turning to the forecast, we think initial management perspectives sounded exceptional on all fronts,” the firm wrote.

“Semi-supplier incentives, relative Tech scaling fragility and healthy implied payback periods all suggest a significant cash flow opportunity for SPCX,” analysts later added.

Bernstein: Earnings should not be the focus at this point

Rating: Outperform (reiterate)

Price target: $239 (+110% upside)

Investors shouldn’t be too pressed about SpaceX’s financials at this stage, given that the company is still building out its projects, which have more upside as compute prices rise, analysts at Bernstein wrote in a note on Wednesday.

SpaceX’s quarterly results were also generally “solid,” they added, pointing to how, despite the losses over the past quarter, earnings still pulled ahead of expectations.

“We saw nothing in the report that would be negative,” a team led by Douglas Harned wrote. “We expect that timing around the lockup release coming on Thursday was likely a factor in the decline,” they added, referring to how the company is unlocking its first batch of insider shares tomorrow.

Bank of America: Expect soaring AI growth in the quarters ahead

Rating: Buy (reiterate)

Price target: $235 (+106% upside)

Bank of America analysts pointed to SpaceX’s strong growth prospects, given that the company beat earnings expectations across several metrics for the quarter.

In a client note, analysts said they expected the firm’s “soaring AI growth” to continue, with SpaceX’s AI business likely to generate around $24.5 billion in revenue by the end of the year.

“We see the company’s reporting and communication as constructive,” the note said. “While the stock remains negatively impacted on elevated capex expectations and questions on how SPCX will monetize its capabilities through AI and Starlink Mobile, we are more positive in SPCX’s positioning across its key markets following 2Q.”

Deutsche Bank: Capex will likely accelerate into 2027

Rating: Buy (reiterate)

Price target: $235 (+106% upside)

Deutsche Bank was among the few on Wall Street that cut its price target for SpaceX, though the firm said it remained bullish on SpaceX’s outlook overall.

Analysts flagged the possibility that capex could accelerate in 2027, which could weigh on the stock despite second-quarter results being “strong” overall.

“Overall, we remain steadfast in our long-term bull thesis on SpaceX, but acknowledge the stock has clearly been under downward pressure lately,” the bank said.

Piper Sandler: Lockup expirations will weigh on stock for next year

Rating: Neutral (reiterate)

Price target: $140 (+23% upside)

Piper Sandler also trimmed its price target for SpaceX. The firm pointed to three headwinds looming over the stock, which it said explained why shares began to sink following the print:

• The number of tradable shares could rise by more than 140% as more insider stock gets unlocked

• Capex guidance for 2027 will likely rise to around $65 billion, around $17 billion higher than what Piper Sandler initially estimated

• AI cloud contracts are “lucrative but cancelable; it’s hard to gauge ‘staying power,’ the firm said.

“We’re boosting our estimates but cutting our target multiple; the lockup expiration overhang will remain a valuation headwind until Summer 2027,” a team led by Alexander Potter wrote in a note on Thursday.

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