9/29 (Tue) Japanese Stock Market Summary | Ex-dividend and US stock decline weigh on the market. Fell over 1,100 yen at one point.
Hello! This is runa.
I would like to summarize today’s Japanese stock market in a way that is easy to understand even for investment beginners.
☀️ Today’s Japanese Stock Market Summary
The Nikkei Stock Average on 9/29 fell for the second consecutive day, closing down 396 yen at 65,481 yen.
The TOPIX also closed down 1.72% from the previous day at 4,041 points.
Selling dominated from the morning, and in the afternoon, it fell as low as 64,699 yen, down 1,178 yen.
There was also a moment where it fell below the psychological threshold of 65,000 yen for the first time in four trading days.
The background to this was the ex-dividend date for companies with March fiscal year-ends and the decline in US stocks from the previous day.
On the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market, over 80% of stocks declined, and all 33 industry sectors fell, resulting in a broad-based sell-off.
However, the decline slowed toward the close, with some AI and semiconductor-related stocks like Tokyo Electron and Disco supporting the downside.
Other major indices are as follows.
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Dollar-Yen: Around 157.40 yen (range 157.20 – 157.58 yen)
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NY Dow (28th): 51,481 dollars (-347 dollars / -0.67%)
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NASDAQ (28th): 26,820 (-248 / -0.92%)
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US Long-term Interest Rate: Maintained at a high level of 5.23
🔥 Today’s Important Factors
① Ex-dividend date for interim dividends
Today was the ex-dividend date for companies with March fiscal year-ends.
This is a timing when selling for cash-out purposes by investors who have secured the right to receive dividends tends to occur. It is estimated that this factor alone pushed the Nikkei Stock Average down by about 300 yen.
Selling was particularly noticeable in trading, banking, and insurance stocks, which have many high-dividend stocks.
② US tech stock weakness and Arm’s sharp decline
In the US market on the 28th, the SOX index, which consists of semiconductor-related stocks, declined.
Following this, some AI and semiconductor-related stocks such as Ibiden were sold off in the Tokyo market as well.
Particularly significant was the decline in SoftBank Group (SBG), which was hit by the sharp drop in the share price of its subsidiary, the British semiconductor design company Arm Holdings.
Concerns surrounding the AI development of its investment, OpenAI, are also believed to have contributed to the pressure.
③ Middle East situation and rising crude oil prices
New York crude oil futures rose against the backdrop of uncertainty regarding the situation in Iran.
The rise in crude oil prices is likely to lead to concerns about downward pressure on corporate earnings, which is seen as a factor that cooled the overall market sentiment.
On the other hand, some AI and semiconductor-related stocks such as Tokyo Electron, SCREEN, and Disco bucked the trend and rose, which is a point worth noting as it was not a broad-based decline.
📢 Today’s IR and earnings revisions
Happinet (7552) | Upward revision to first-half recurring profit, significant continued rise
A major comprehensive entertainment trading company that mainly handles toys, games, and video/music software.
The upward revision to earnings forecasts announced after the market closed on the 28th had an effect throughout the entire day.
The consolidated recurring profit for the first half was revised upward by 68.8%, from 8 billion yen to 13.5 billion yen. It appears that the second quarter alone saw record-high profits.
The toy business’s lottery products and trading cards, as well as the amusement business’s capsule toys, are reportedly performing well. The stock price rose by over 10% compared to the previous day.
Orchestra (6533) | Continued rise following dividend increase and expansion of shareholder benefits
A digital marketing company that engages in businesses such as internet advertising and system development.
Following yesterday’s limit-high, the stock was heavily bought again today, rising 391 yen (+25.59%) to 1,919 yen. The impact of the strengthened shareholder returns has been felt over two days.
📈 Stocks that rose / 📉 Stocks that fell
⬆️ Tokyo Electron, Disco, SCREEN
Among AI and semiconductor-related stocks, these three bucked the trend and rose.
In a market experiencing a broad-based decline, they served as a support for the Nikkei Stock Average.
⬇️ Nexon (3659)
2,625.5 yen (-442.5 yen / -14.42%)
This is a company known for online games such as “MapleStory.”
The reason for the sharp decline is not a deterioration in business performance. It reached the ex-dividend date for a special dividend totaling $2 billion (approximately 310 billion yen) (415 yen per share). It was a “planned decline,” where the stock price theoretically drops by the amount of the dividend.
It’s easy to get excited when you think about receiving a dividend, but the stock price drops by that amount on the ex-dividend date, doesn’t it…
If you don’t understand the mechanism, it might come as a surprise.
⬇️ Nidec (6594)
2,250 yen (-3.9%), a decline for the second consecutive day.
Following the limit-down yesterday on the 28th due to reports of President Kishida’s dismissal and massive impairment losses, selling continued today. In addition to speculation about a 1 trillion yen scale impairment loss related to accounting irregularities, it has also been reported that the direction of the president’s resignation has been solidified, leaving persistent uncertainty regarding the management structure.
⬇️ SoftBank Group (9984)
The stock fell compared to the reference price adjusted for the ex-dividend date.
The decline in Arm shares and concerns surrounding the AI development of its investment target, OpenAI, weighed on the stock.
📝 Today’s theme: “The weight of ex-dividend and the light and shadow within semiconductors”
Today was a day where the “annual event” of the ex-dividend date overlapped with the “one-day event” of weak US stocks.
It is also impressive that even within the semiconductor sector, there was a split between stocks like SBG and Ibiden, which were affected by the sharp drop in Arm, and stocks like Tokyo Electron and Disco, which bucked the trend and rose.
Rather than saying “semiconductors were sold off across the board,” it might be closer to reality to say that the fortunes were divided by individual circumstances.
💡 Three points for tomorrow
1. Can the Nikkei Average maintain 65,000 yen?
It fell below 65,000 yen at one point today.
Whether it can maintain this level from tomorrow onwards will likely be the immediate focus.
2. Movement of US high-tech stocks and the SOX index
Today’s decline was triggered by the weakness in US semiconductor stocks.
I want to see if high-tech stocks can regain their composure in the US market tonight.
③ Dollar-Yen and caution regarding coordinated Japan-US intervention
Today, the market lacked direction in the 157 yen range.
How much the caution regarding intervention will cap the upside remains a point to keep watching.
🐣 Summary
To summarize today’s Japanese stock market in one phrase:
“A day of endurance, with ex-dividend impacts and weak US stocks overlapping.”
The decline exceeded 1,100 yen at one point, but the market showed resistance toward the close, with some semiconductor stocks like Tokyo Electron acting as a support.
Although ex-dividend rights occur every year, it was a day where heavy individual factors also stood out, such as the continued decline of Nidec and the drop in SBG.
Let’s keep an eye on daily news and stock price trends to grasp the flow of the market!
*This article is intended to provide information for reference in investment decisions and does not recommend or solicit investment in any specific financial product. Please make final investment decisions at your own responsibility.