A 100x jump in Nvidia stock is unlikely, but that's half the story
If you’d invested $10,000 in shares of Nvidia (NVDA +0.84%) a decade ago, your investment would now be worth almost $1.5 million.
Various catalysts have driven the astronomical rise in Nvidia stock over this period. The strong demand for graphics cards used in personal computers (PCs), driven by gaming and cryptocurrency, along with the artificial intelligence (AI)-fueled surge in data center graphics cards, has been instrumental in boosting Nvidia’s revenue and earnings in recent years.
Nvidia’s robust growth drivers have made it the world’s largest company by market cap. Investors, therefore, may be wondering whether this semiconductor bellwether can make them millionaires once again in the long run. Let’s see whether Nvidia can replicate its stunning returns over the coming decade and turn $10,000 into a million dollars.
Image source: Getty Images.
A 100x jump in Nvidia stock is unlikely, but that’s half the story
Nvidia now has a market cap of $5.5 trillion. The stock will need to jump by 100x from current levels to turn $10,000 into a million, which means its market cap will need to exceed $500 trillion for investors to become millionaires.
94/100
Today’s Change
(0.84%) $1.91
Current Price
$230.36
Key Data Points
Market Cap
Day’s Range
$229.63 – $234.76
52wk Range
$164.27 – $236.54
Volume
135.4M
Avg Vol
136.9M
Gross Margin
74.67%
Dividend Yield
0.12%
That seems absurd, considering that the size of the global economy is poised to hit $150 trillion in 2030, according to Visual Capitalist. The firm notes that the global gross domestic product (GDP) is on track to grow by $25 trillion between 2026 and 2030. Nvidia, therefore, is unlikely to become larger than the global economy in the long run.
In simple words, investing $10,000 in Nvidia right now in the hope that this single investment alone will make you a millionaire is not the right idea. However, buying $10,000 worth of Nvidia’s shares as a part of a diversified portfolio could indeed help investors achieve their goal of becoming millionaires over the long run.
Here’s why.
Nvidia can become a much bigger company over the next decade
Nvidia has grown significantly over the last decade. The company’s annual revenue in fiscal 2017 (which ended in January 2017) was $6.9 billion. Analysts expect Nvidia’s revenue to land at $411 billion in fiscal 2027, an increase of almost 60x in a decade.
The good news for Nvidia investors is that it still has a lot of room for growth. Deloitte estimates that the global semiconductor market could be worth $975 billion in 2026, with $500 billion coming from sales of AI chips. Nvidia rival AMD forecasts that sales of AI accelerator chips could hit $1 trillion in 2030. Even better, the overall semiconductor market could be worth $2 trillion in 2036, according to Deloitte, even with moderate growth.
Nvidia is a key player in the global AI chip market with an estimated 80% share. So, the secular growth of the semiconductor market, primarily fueled by AI chips, should ensure healthy long-term growth for Nvidia. Additionally, the emergence of new AI-fueled applications beyond data centers, such as physical AI, and the integration of AI into edge devices, such as PCs, should open additional growth avenues for Nvidia.
The physical AI market, for instance, could be worth $430 billion in 2030 and hit $1.6 trillion in 2040, according to a third-party report. Physical AI refers to the integration of AI into real-world objects, such as machines, robots, and vehicles. The integration of this technology in multiple industries, ranging from healthcare to industrial to defense to space to retail, is poised to drive robust growth in this market over the long run.
Nvidia is already strengthening its position in physical AI. The company noted on its recent earnings call that Amazon will adopt its full physical AI stack to automate its warehouse robots. Noetra, a government-backed Japanese company developing physical AI and industrial robotics applications, will also adopt Nvidia’s physical AI tools.
These growth opportunities indicate why analysts expect Nvidia’s revenue to increase at a healthy pace even after the strong base it has already achieved.
Data by YCharts
For comparison, Nvidia reported $215.9 billion in revenue in fiscal 2026 (which ended in January this year). The chart above suggests that its top line is on track to increase 4x in just two years. Even better, analysts have been boosting their long-term earnings growth expectations.
Data by YCharts
Assuming Nvidia’s earnings indeed increase at an annual pace of 49% for the next five years, its earnings per share will jump to $35 at the end of the forecast period (using fiscal 2026’s earnings of $4.77 per share as the base). If Nvidia trades at 21 times earnings at that time, in line with the S&P 500 index’s forward earnings multiple, its stock price could jump to $735 in five years.
That’s nearly 3.2x Nvidia’s current stock price, making it an ideal growth stock for investors looking to build a million-dollar portfolio, especially considering that it trades at an attractive 25 times forward earnings even after its terrific growth and sunny prospects.