A majority of S&P 500 companies are in correction territory
Earlier this week, Wall Street’s artificial intelligence (AI)-driven bull market celebrated its fourth anniversary. Empowering software and systems with the tools to make autonomous decisions is a multitrillion-dollar global opportunity that’s launched several tech companies into the trillion-dollar club and lifted the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI -0.09%), S&P 500 (^GSPC -1.11%), and Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC -1.88%) to all-time highs.
But the stock market may not be as healthy as its major stock indexes suggest. Based on what history tells us, Wall Street may be on the verge of a tipping point driven by a historic level of concentration.
Image source: Getty Images.
A majority of S&P 500 companies are in correction territory
On Oct. 5, Wall Street’s benchmark index, the S&P 500, reached its all-time closing high of roughly 7,819. The AI infrastructure build-out and significantly better-than-expected corporate earnings have powered the broader market higher.
But despite the S&P 500 hovering within a few points of its record close, as of this writing on Oct. 13, a whopping 84% of the index’s 503 components — three companies have dual share classes, thus 503 components and not 500 — are trading at least 10% below their record highs. This includes more than 90% of consumer staples, consumer discretionary, utilities, materials, and real estate stocks in the S&P 500.
BREAKING: 84% of S&P 500 stocks are now trading at least -10% below their all-time highs.
Real Estate leads the drawdown, with 97% of stocks down at least -10%, followed by Materials at 96%, Utilities at 94%, and Consumer Discretionary at 92%.
By comparison, Energy has held up relatively better, with 62% of stocks more than -10% below their all-time highs, followed by Healthcare at 70% and Information Technology at 72%.
Furthermore, 59% of S&P 500 stocks are down at least -20% from their highs, 41% are down more than -30%, and 17% are down more than -50%.
Meanwhile, the S&P 500 is just 0.2% from its all-time high set on Tuesday.
A few names are carrying the entire stock market.
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) October 11, 2026
At the same time, we’re also witnessing a historic divergence between the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF (RSP -0.57%) and the benchmark S&P 500. Whereas the S&P 500 is a market-cap-weighted index (i.e., companies with larger market caps carry more weight), the Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight ETF affords a similar weighting to all components, regardless of their valuations.
What this data collectively tells us is that only a small percentage of companies are responsible for lifting the stock market to new heights. While a select few AI-powered businesses have succeeded in pushing the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq to new highs, historical precedent shows this dynamic to be unsustainable.
Image source: Getty Images.
A historically concentrated stock market spells potential disaster for investors
Earlier this year, Bank of America (BAC -4.76%) Global Investment Strategy charted several instances over the last 190 years in which a hot investment trend led to high concentration levels within the stock market or a major index. At their respective peaks (pertaining to the U.S. stock market):
- Railroads accounted for 63% of the U.S. stock market around the start of the 20th century.
- The Nifty Fifty accounted for 40% of the S&P 500 in the early 1970s.
- Tech and telecom made up 41% of the S&P 500 in early 2000.
- The 10 biggest AI stocks comprise 40% of the S&P 500, with AI stock representation in the index (i.e., all companies) reaching 45% in April 2026.
Stock market bubbles throughout history…
AI stocks now ~40% of the market. https://t.co/RxSAh09k6F
— Geiger Capital (@Geiger_Capital) May 8, 2026
While the previous three were undeniably hot investment trends in their respective eras, these concentration bubbles all eventually burst. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq plunged 49% and 78%, respectively, after the dot-com bubble burst in March 2000.
Although index concentration data can’t help investors pinpoint when the music will stop, it has historically foreshadowed disaster. With the stock market propped up by progressively fewer companies, even a small hiccup from one or more of these businesses could spell the end of Wall Street’s AI-driven bull market.