A new Social Security COLA prediction is out and it’s more bad news for retirees
The latest forecast for Social Security’s 2027 cost-of-living adjustment offers little comfort to millions of seniors who rely on the monthly payments.
The Senior Citizens League predicts Social Security’s COLA will be 3.5%. That figure is 0.1 percentage points lower than last month’s prediction but 0.7 percentage points higher than the 2.8% COLA for 2026. It’s also 1.0 percentage points higher than 2025’s COLA of 2.5%.
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If the prediction holds, the average benefit check will increase by $67.90. The current average beneficiary receives $1,940.08 in their monthly Social Security check. With a 3.5 percent COLA, that would rise to $2,007.98.
The forecasted COLA – while up from last year – fails to solve the issue of seniors dealing with soaring prices at the gas pump, grocery stores and the doctor’s office.
“No matter if the COLA announcement comes in slightly higher or slightly lower than our prediction, seniors will probably end up disappointed in the long run,” TSCL Executive Director Shannon Benton said in a statement. “The reality is that older Americans allocate their budgets differently than people still in the workforce, so inflation hits them differently. The CPI-W captures the experience of urban wage earners, which doesn’t represent the average senior’s budget.”
The official announcement for next year’s COLA will be on Oct. 14. The government calculates the COLA by taking the average yearly change in the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) for July, August, and September. The August CPI-W, released today, came in at 3.5 percent, following July’s reading of 3.4 percent.
Social Security beneficiaries will see the new COLA take effect on Jan. 1, 2027.