A Not-So-Neighborly Trade War

Good morning! Here’s the latest in trending:

AGI has arrived! Nvidia’s (NVDA) Jensen Huang declares after OpenAI GPT-6 Astra launch.

Crude watch: Fresh strikes hit Saudi facilities, while Iran issues dual economic and military threats.

Next up: From democratizing finance to IPOs, Robinhood (HOOD) scores its first underwriting gig.

The trade war between the U.S. and Canada is in full swing, with the latter hitting back with retaliatory tariffs on billions of dollars of American goods. The measures target everything from steel and aluminum to motorcycles and dairy products. Ottawa argues the levies are proportionate, but they are also designed to hit U.S. businesses and voters before midterm elections following the collapse of talks between the two countries.

Snapshot: The economies of the U.S. and Canada are deeply interconnected, especially in states like Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois. Companies like General Motors (GM) and Ford (F) rely heavily on parts shuttling back and forth between the U.S. Midwest and Ontario, along with American refiners that rely on low-cost heavy crude imports from the Great White North. Elsewhere, domestic producers like Nucor (NUE) and Steel Dynamics (STLD) are set to face volatile input pricing, as well as consumer goods companies ranging from electronics to appliances. See the full list of sectors and stocks

More fallout is likely in the cards, with President Trump making some fresh announcements on social media. Over the weekend, he criticized the value of Canada’s currency, sparking concerns over Canadian assets and the loonie, as well as lambasting individual firms like Bombardier (BDRAF), threatening its plane sales in the United States. The timeline is still unclear, but Trump previously announced levies on Canadian-made vehicles and auto parts that would go into effect in 2027, while signing an order to rename Lake Ontario as “Lake America” in U.S. federal records and maps.

How will it end? According to a recent Seeking Alpha survey based on 1,470 participants, both sides will eventually agree to a mutual face-saving deal (35%), though many think the U.S. may relent due to supply chain shocks and resurgent inflation (31%). “Trump seems to be dealing with Canada using much the same playbook he uses elsewhere, including with Iran: apply maximum pressure and see who gives in first,” SA Premium user LJPF noted. “Even the polling question — ‘Who will blink first?’ — recognizes that this has become less about traditional negotiation and more about leverage and brinkmanship.” Here’s the full discussion

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What else is happening…

Germany’s Merz under pressure following AfD’s landslide win.

Carmakers turn to gas-powered generators to boost EV range.

Tragedy after Amazon (AMZN) plane overruns Miami runway.

U.S. large-scale data centers could triple by 2030 – Kobeissi.

Trump says he made ‘hundreds of billions’ on stocks for U.S.

Anthropic (ANTHRO) IPO launch pushed to mid-October.

GLP-1s: PepsiCo (PEP) is eyeing new food categories.

Nike (NKE) booted from S&P 100 after nearly 18-year run.

Memory stocks awaken from summer doldrums – Goldman.

SA Asks: How worried should investors be about surging yields?

Today’s Markets

In Asia, Japan -1.7%. Hong Kong -0.4%. China +0.2%. India -0.7%.
In Europe, at midday, London flat. Paris -0.1%. Frankfurt -0.1%.
Futures at 6:30, Dow -0.7%. S&P -0.3%. Nasdaq +0.1%. Crude +2.5% to $93.77. Gold -0.8% to $4,442.10. Bitcoin -1% to $78,648.
Ten-year Treasury Yield unchanged at 4.80%.

On The Calendar

Companies reporting today include GameStop (GME) and United Natural Foods (UNFI).

See the full earnings calendar on Seeking Alpha, as well as today’s economic calendar.