A top Wall Street firm has a new seasonal trading motto: 'Sell in July for a Big October Buy'

• Oppenheimer says investors should trade the “sell in May and go away” play, for a new strategy.

• The technical analysts’ new seasonal trading motto is “Sell in July for a Big October Buy.”

• They say 2026 is different because it’s a midterm election year with a second term president.

Move over “sell in May and go away,” there’s a new seasonal trading framework on Wall Street.

Oppenheimer said investors should rethink the old adage in 2026 because of one factor: It’s a midterm election year with a second term president in the White House.

The “sell in May and go away” strategy has historically paid off for investors. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has averaged only 2.1% from May to October, compared to a 7% average gain from November to April.

But, the analysts say its time to ditch it for their new moniker: “Sell in July for a Big October Buy.”

The firm used the US presidential cycle as its gauge since historically it’s overlapped with four-year equity cycles.

Generally, midterm election years are known to be volatile for markets, but Oppenheimer analysts told clients that this year is set up to be different, which is why they’re encouraging investors to branch out from typical seasonal strategies.

“While mid-term years, like 2026, are often associated with volatility, sustained weakness has been less common under second-term presidents,” they wrote.

The analysts outlined that in midterm years with a second term president, the S&P 500 tends to rally through April, cooled into July, and then see a correction in the third quarter. This sets the equity market up for a strong advance ahead the upcoming pre-election year.

“Given the lack of market-top warnings, we would view mid-year weakness as temporary, and favor being fully invested by Q4,” they said.

The firm also suggested investors brush off midterm year volatility, saying, “Volatility is the cost of admission for long-term returns—even in strong years.”

Oppenheimer isn’t the only one on Wall Street using the presidential cycle as a guideline for what to expect from markets.

Bank of America had a similar reworking of the sell in May seasonal motto, recommending a more specific trading pattern to take advantage of this year’s swings in the market.

Jeffery Hirsch, a longtime market strategist and the editor of the Stock Trader’s Almanac, called out an emerging Trump-era trading pattern and so far it’s held up.

The strategist said that stocks would hit a low in late March or early April.