All’s fair in love and trade war, and Canada must play dirty, too

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Mark Johnson is a corporate lawyer with experience across both the public and private sectors. He is a former Conservative candidate in Toronto.

History buffs looking for an analogy for our costly trade war with the United States may find one in the Vietnam War. But in this case, the U.S. plays the victorious North Vietnam, while we Canadians are the hapless Americans. We flail away, bewildered and doomed.

We can’t figure out the other side or understand their methods, and we follow a conventional strategy that doesn’t work. And that’s why we’re losing.

As for the historical men, U.S. President Donald Trump is Ho Chi Minh, the president of North Vietnam. Prime Minister Mark Carney resembles then-U.S. secretary of defence, Robert McNamara.

In the U.S. in the 1960s, Mr. McNamara was the establishment scion. Armed with an elite education and great connections, he became president of Ford Motor Co. at just 44. He was so much the epitome of technocratic accomplishment that president John F. Kennedy made him defence secretary soon thereafter in 1961.

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Ho Chi Minh was the elderly, frail leader of North Vietnam. But enabled by ruthless killers who liquidated internal opponents, he was able to confuse, disorient, baffle and defeat Mr. McNamara and the U.S.

Up against Mr. Trump, Mr. Carney follows the textbook principles of negotiation: stay rational, keep things cool, be objective and strategic.

Usually that’s the right approach. Usually. Trade talks are just business negotiations but bigger, right? Figure out your options. Look for win-win solutions. Don’t get personal.

The problem is, we’re almost 18 months into the trade war and the Prime Minister’s strategy clearly isn’t working.

Mr. Trump isn’t conventional, and that’s likely why Mr. Carney and his team are flummoxed and foundering.

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With no end in sight, we’re bogged down and losing the war. Concession after concession. Pounding after pounding. The Gordie Howe bridge shakedown. The cancellation of the digital services tax. Auto tariffs. Steel tariffs. And now the threat of 50-per-cent tariffs on various Canadian goods that may take effect shortly. Elbows up has become pants down.

It’s no longer just a trade issue. The endless humiliations at the hands of the U.S. President have turned this into a matter of national prestige. And for that, people are willing to withstand a lot for victory.

Strike a trade deal with Mr. Trump? We did strike a trade deal with him just a few years ago: the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement. He doesn’t care. It’s a different thing every week. The President does what he wants. Why? Because he can.

Why would Mr. Trump land a trade agreement with us when he doesn’t have to? Doing so would mean he gives up the ability to jerk us around. After all, his power is not only the tariffs, but the uncertainty itself, the very unpredictability of his actions that he lords over us. Business leaders and investors, keen to avoid uncertainty with tariffs and international borders, will default to locating their plants inside the U.S. border, regardless of how attractive Canada may otherwise be.

He knows this. Madness is his method. The more uncertainty he creates, the more he advances his agenda.

If our prosperity depends on a trade deal, it will only happen when Mr. Trump takes us seriously.

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Maybe Ontario Premier Doug Ford has the right idea with his surprise tactics: the ban on U.S. alcohol, the threat of cutting off electricity, the pro-free-trade Ronald Reagan advertisement. Think what you will, it sure got to Mr. Trump. Mr. Ford should have kept it going. I would have. Unconventional trade combat could include bringing those back.

Other unconventional tactics could include a massive advertising campaign in Silicon Valley to recruit valuable software entrepreneurs to immigrate to Canada, a stepped-up national effort to dissuade Canadians from travelling to the U.S. for business and leisure, and targeted, high-impact tariffs on American goods that are implemented without warning.

The list of such tariffed items should be narrow, with a focus on things that are readily substitutable by Canadians, such as various consumer goods, household products, soft drinks and processed foods. Last year, we imported almost $1-billion of U.S.-made non-alcoholic beverages, and we’re the largest market for their processed foods.

And the most powerful unconventional tactic would be to hang tough, don’t surrender and have faith that the Canadian people are united in this endeavour.

Will Mr. Trump retaliate? Yes. Will it hurt? Perhaps. But we’ll only get him to come to the bargaining table when we show we’re not to be trifled with. It’s short-term pain for long-term gain. As former prime minister Stephen Harper notably said earlier this year, we must make “any sacrifice necessary” for our independence.

Crazy? Unpredictable? That’s the point. Mr. Trump isn’t fighting like Mr. Carney expects him to. Maybe Canada should be less conventional, a little more guerrilla. It just might work. So far, the Prime Minister’s strategy hasn’t.