AppLovin Has Dropped 60% in 2026: One Wall Street Pro is Convinced It Will Triple in Price

AppLovin (NASDAQ:APP | APP Price Prediction) is now priced at $260.25. The average analyst target sits at $476.85, implying 83.2% upside.

AppLovin runs an AI-driven mobile advertising platform built on its AXON engine. It sold its legacy games business in 2025 so it could focus entirely on ads. It is still one of the most profitable companies in advertising, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of 84%.

The stock has lost 61.38% this year, and the consensus target implies upside above 80%. One analyst goes further still. Stephen Ju at UBS has the highest target on the Street at $790.00, implying 203.55% upside. He expects the stock to about triple.

One Narrow Revenue Miss Deepened a 61% Slide

The second-quarter earnings report did most of the damage. Revenue came in at $1.92 billion and missed estimates by 0.94%. Higher computing costs then drove adjusted EBITDA below the guided range. Wells Fargo, Piper Sandler and Bank of America all downgraded the stock after the report.

CEO Adam Foroughi blamed the timing of model upgrades: “Our pace of meaningful model improvement was lighter than normal during the quarter and the next step-up in model performance landed just after quarter end.” That explanation concerned investors. AppLovin’s growth depends on its models getting better every quarter, and one slow quarter made those gains look less reliable. A securities class action over the company’s statements about model improvements added to the pressure.

The selling has been specific to AppLovin, and it hasn’t ended. Shares fell 17.45% over the past month. The stock now sits near its 52-week low of $258.32, far below its high of $738.01.

33 Analysts Still Call the Miss a Temporary Stumble

Of the 33 analysts covering the stock, 7 give it a Strong Buy, 20 rate it Buy, 6 rate it Hold, and none rate it Sell. Most recent changes have been downgrades or target cuts. Most analysts still see the miss as a short-term problem.

The operating results back them up. Second-quarter revenue grew 52.8% from a year earlier, net income reached $1.27B, and free cash flow came in at $863M. Third-quarter revenue guidance is $2.055B-$2.085B. Management says that range “does not assume additional model releases that have not yet been deployed”, which leaves room for upside. The next earnings report is the first real test of the recovery story.

UBS bases its case on three factors. The first is the continued monetization strength of AXON 2.0. The second is expansion beyond gaming into e-commerce advertising. The third is strong free cash flow that funds buybacks. Ju cut his target from $800.00 but kept his Buy rating. Consumer advertiser spend finished 28% above Q4 2025 levels, and the SEC “concluded its inquiry with no recommended action.”

The triple case still demands a lot. Foroughi admits that “Creative is the biggest hurdle in our system,” and management’s long-term goal is growth of about 30% a year. Price targets are estimates, and none of them are guaranteed.

Trade Desk Fell Even Further While Meta Held Up

One rival fell as hard as AppLovin, and the largest player barely moved this year.

The Trade Desk (NASDAQ:TTD) is down 65.75% this year to $13.00. Its average target is $13.53, which implies just 4.08% upside. Analysts are mostly cautious: 1 Strong Buy, 4 Buys, 23 Holds, 5 Sells and 3 Strong Sells. The Street expects far less recovery here than at AppLovin.

Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META) is down only 2.41% this year, although it fell 9.4% in the past week. At $642.62, it trades below its $844.26 average target, which implies 31.38% upside. 55 analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy, while 7 rate it Hold and 1 rates it Sell.

AppLovin has the largest analyst-implied upside of the three, even though it shares Trade Desk’s deep drawdown. That gap between price and target is the widest in the group.

AppLovin Trails the S&P 500 by a Wide Margin This Year

AppLovin trades at $260.25, against a consensus target of $476.85 from 33 analysts. That translates into 83.2% of implied upside. The stock is down 61.38% year to date and 55.87% over the past year. The S&P 500 is up 11.45% year to date.

The stock trades well below both its 50-day average of $299.95 and its 200-day average of $425.53. Its trailing P/E is 20, a low multiple for a company that just grew revenue by more than half.

AppLovin’s Next Earnings Report Will Test the Recovery Case

The optimistic scenario holds up if the model gains already live show up as revenue at or above the top of guidance, and if consumer advertising keeps scaling through the mid-market partnerships. The pessimistic view gains ground if growth slows again next quarter. That would suggest the model gains are less reliable than management claims, and it would turn a timing story into a value trap.

At a trailing P/E of 20, the stock trades at a low multiple relative to its 84% EBITDA margins and growth above 50%. The UBS tripling target needs years of strong execution. The consensus target depends on the next earnings report confirming the business has reaccelerated.

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