Are Space ETFs on Track to Rally or Is It Just a Temporary Blip?
The U.S. space sector has experienced significant volatility in recent times. SpaceX‘s SPCX June IPO — the largest in history — briefly pushed its valuation above $2 trillion, igniting investor interest in space-related stocks. The Goldman Sachs basket of U.S. space and satellite stocks surged more than 360% over two years, outpacing the S&P 500 by a wide margin through mid-July 2026.
But then came the crash. Once investors moved past the post-IPO euphoria, lofty valuations, the rising cost of innovation in space equipment, and SpaceX’s lack of profitability spooked the market. As a result, space stocks nosedived in late July, a trend that extended into early August.
Over the past few weeks, however, the narrative has shifted again. SpaceX’s Starship achieved its first successful orbital insertion on Sept. 28, deploying 26 Starlink V3 satellites.
Moreover, private investment in space companies more than doubled year over year to $23 billion by June 2026 (per a Reuters report published this month), signaling that institutional conviction remains strong. This renewed momentum puts a fresh spotlight on space stocks and the exchange-traded funds (ETFs) that hold them, reigniting investor interest in the space industry.
But before identifying these ETFs, it is important to understand the opportunities and challenges in the industry and assess whether the recent recovery can be sustained.
The Pros and Cons of the Space Industry
The bullish case rests on a fundamental transformation.
The cost of sending a kilogram of payload into low Earth orbit, an average of $3,868 last year, is set to fall more than 58% to just $1,569 by 2030, and could reach as little as $273 per kilo by 2040, according to a new study conducted by the University of Cambridge.
This should make commercial space ventures more economically viable. SpaceX’s Starship flight proved orbital cargo delivery works, opening the door to Starlink V3 deployment and future revenue streams.
Rocket Lab‘s RKLB $8 billion acquisition of Iridium and Amazon’s $11.6 billion purchase of Globalstar show consolidation are accelerating, with larger players absorbing smaller ones to boost end-to-end capabilities.
However, risks remain in the form of volatility. Goldman Sachs has explicitly warned that the space basket is twice as volatile as AI stocks and five times as volatile as the S&P 500.
Most space companies remain unprofitable, with timelines for profitability uncertain, while capital intensity remains high, as satellite constellations and ground infrastructure require billions of dollars in investment before generating meaningful revenues. SpaceX itself is trading more than 30% below its post-IPO peak despite the Starship success.
What Lies Ahead for Space?
In the short term, volatility will continue to impact space stocks. The Starship orbital success provides a genuine catalyst, but as Meritz Securities analyst Jung Ji-soo noted, engine anomalies during the flight and lingering high-rate pressure mean a sustained rebound isn’t guaranteed.
Over the long run, the outlook for the space industry remains bullish. The Space Foundation expects the global space economy to reach $1 trillion by 2032, while McKinsey projects $1.8 trillion by 2035 and PwC forecasts $2 trillion by 2040 (as cited in a JP Morgan Report). Thus, forecasters differ mainly on timing, suggesting that the space industry has identifiable long-term revenue growth opportunities.
The ETF Viewpoint
Considering the aforementioned discussion, for most investors, ETFs offer a more sensible path than individual stock picking. Single space stocks like RKLB, or Planet Labs, move together on sector sentiment while carrying company-specific execution risks. An ETF provides diversified exposure to the entire space ecosystem — rocket launch, satellites, communications, defense and supply chain — without betting on any single company’s balance sheet surviving the next downturn.
Space ETFs Worth Considering for Long-Term Exposure
Given the long-term prospects of the global space economy, investors seeking space-sector exposure while avoiding the company-specific risks of individual stocks may consider the following ETFs:
Tema Space Innovators ETF NASA
This fund, with assets under management (AUM) worth $1.15 billion, offers exposure to 36 companies involved in space exploration, rockets and propulsion systems, and satellite technology, among other commercial opportunities. SPCX holds the first spot in this fund with 24.07% weightage, while RKLB holds the second spot with 10.40% weightage.
NASA charges 75 basis points (bps) in fees. It traded at a good volume of 1.97 million shares in the last trading session.
ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF ARKX
This fund, with net assets worth $759.5 million, offers exposure to companies that are engaged in space exploration and defense innovation. SPCX holds the first spot in this fund with 10.72% weightage, while L3Harris Technologies holds the second spot with a 6.16% weightage.
ARKX charges 75 bps in fees and traded at a volume of 0.56 million shares in the last trading session.
Procure Space ETF UFO
This fund, with net assets worth $541.9 million, offers exposure to 69 companies engaged in space-related industries. SPCX holds the first spot in this fund with a 14.57% weightage, while RKLB holds the second spot with a 5.53% weightage.
UFO charges 75 bps in fees and traded at a volume of 0.19 million shares in the last trading session.
VanEck Space ETF WARP
This fund, with net assets worth $42.9 million, offers exposure to 22 companies involved in the space industry. SPCX holds the first spot in this fund with a 19.42% weightage, while RKLB holds the second spot with a 14.82% weightage.
WARP charges 50 bps in fees and traded at a volume of 0.02 million shares in the last trading session.
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Procure Space ETF (UFO): ETF Research Reports
Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SPCX) : Free Stock Analysis Report
ARK Space & Defense Innovation ETF (ARKX): ETF Research Reports
Rocket Lab Corporation (RKLB) : Free Stock Analysis Report
VanEck Space ETF (WARP): ETF Research Reports
This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research (zacks.com).