AST SpaceMobile Cratered in 2026: Wall Street Pro Says 70% Returns Await Buyers Today
A failed satellite launch and six straight earnings misses cut AST SpaceMobile nearly in half, but one Wall Street analyst sees a path back that most investors are overlooking.
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AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) is changing hands at $63.12. The consensus analyst price target is $77.94, which puts the stock 23.5% below where analysts on average think it should be.
AST SpaceMobile is building a space-based cellular broadband network connecting BlueBird satellites directly to smartphones. It has over 60 mobile network operator partners covering over 3 billion subscribers and growing U.S. government contracts.
Roth MKM reiterated a Buy rating with a $108.00 target, indicating 71.1% upside. The stock sits 52.8% below its 52-week high of $133.86.
A Failed Launch and Six Straight Misses Cut the Stock in Half
A Blue Origin rocket left the BlueBird 7 satellite in too low an orbit. Shares dropped 15% on the news, and the company recorded a $125.9M loss on involuntary conversion tied to BB7 in Q2.
Q1 revenue came in at $14.73M, missing the $36.58M consensus by 59.72%. Q2 revenue of $31.52M also missed, and GAAP EPS of -$0.77 fell short of the -$0.29 estimate. This marks 6 consecutive EPS misses. An $88.7M induced conversion expense on convertible notes kept dilution concerns alive.
The selloff was specific to AST SpaceMobile. Satellite rivals rallied, and talk of a SpaceX IPO added competition concerns from Starlink.
Roth MKM’s $108 Case Rides on a 45-Satellite Constellation
Roth’s thesis: the BlueBird architecture gives AST SpaceMobile a multi-year lead over Starlink; deals with tier-1 carriers provide access to billions of subscribers without retail customer acquisition; and margins widen as launches convert the partner pipeline into revenue.
Key points: a backlog of roughly $1.3 billion, 2026 revenue guidance of $150 to $200 million weighted toward Q4, and a target of about 45 satellites in orbit by early 2027. Management expects commercial service to begin at that count and aims for close to $1 billion in revenue in the first full year of service. It has 10 launches recorded with two providers.
Funding covers near-term needs. Pro forma cash tops $3.7 billion after a $1.15 billion convertible offering at 1.625%. Three new government awards carry over $100 million in funded near-term value, and Japan’s J-LEO project could be worth up to roughly $1 billion, pending approvals. The company’s president put it simply: “Our deployment roadmap remains on track.”
Of the 14 analysts covering the stock:
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 1
Deutsche Bank lowered its target from above $130 to $106.00. Price targets are estimates.
Satellite Rivals Rallied on Takeovers While AST SpaceMobile Slid
AST SpaceMobile fell on its own. Its closest public peers became acquisition targets.
Iridium Communications (NASDAQ:IRDM | IRDM Price Prediction) is up 185.7% year to date following Rocket Lab‘s (NASDAQ:RKLB) $8 billion deal to buy it. At $49.04, it trades above its $42 average target, which indicating 14.4% downside. Analysts lean positive, with 1 Strong Buy, 3 Buys and 4 Holds, but their targets have not kept up with the price.
Globalstar (NASDAQ:GSAT) is up 37.01% year to date at $83.63. Its $90 target, which indicating 7.6% upside, matches Amazon‘s (NASDAQ:AMZN) $90 per share offer. Analysts rate it 2 Buys and 1 Hold.
AST SpaceMobile has the largest analyst-implied upside in the group. Its peers’ targets are tied to deal prices. AST remains independent, so its price depends entirely on execution.
A Double-Digit Slide During a Strong Year for Stocks
At $63.12, shares sit 23.5% below the $77.94 consensus from 14 analysts. The stock is down 13.09% year to date, while the S&P 500 is up 14.26%.
Shares have started to move higher recently. They gained 6.26% over the past week, including 8.01% in the latest session. The price still sits below the 200-day moving average of $81.09. With a beta of 2.706 and a price-to-sales ratio of 197, expect large swings in either direction.
Execution Will Decide Whether $108 Is Realistic
The optimistic scenario strengthens if launches resume on schedule, the constellation reaches about 45 satellites by early 2027, and Q4 revenue drives the company into its guidance range. The bear case gains weight if another launch fails, Q4-weighted revenue slips into 2027, or carrier partnerships stall before reaching commercial service.
With over $3.7 billion in cash, execution is the primary risk. The $77.94 consensus is the realistic near-term target. Roth’s $108 needs launch results that have not yet happened.
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