Challenging Japanese Stock Swing Trading with ChatGPT #40

I continue to engage in short-term swing trading, where I purchase Japanese stocks during my lunch break on weekdays and, in principle, sell them during the lunch break of the next business day. I use ChatGPT for stock selection and trading decisions, verifying with my own money whether it is actually possible to make a profit in Japanese stock trading using AI.

This article is also created by ChatGPT, with the exception of the final section, “My Thoughts This Time.” The main text is organized based on actual trading records and the analysis performed at that time.

Two consecutive wins with INPEX and MS&AD for a profit of +2,730 yen.

In the sales on October 23, both INPEX and MS&AD, which I purchased the previous day, resulted in profits. The total for the two stocks was +2,730 yen. However, the profit margin for both remained at around 0.3%, so I did not capture a large rise.

On the other hand, for the new purchases on that day, the trades were executed at prices exceeding the entry limits suggested by ChatGPT. I will verify this from the different perspectives of trades that remained profitable and compliance with purchase conditions.

Sales results for October 23

INPEX (1605)

I purchased 100 shares at 3,860 yen on October 22 and sold them at 3,872.1 yen on the 23rd. The realized profit/loss was **+1,210 yen (+0.31%)**.

MS&AD (8725)

I purchased 100 shares at 5,214.8 yen on October 22 and sold them at 5,230 yen on the 23rd. The realized profit/loss was **+1,520 yen (+0.29%)**.

The confirmed profit/loss this time was 2 wins and 0 losses, for a total of +2,730 yen. The cumulative record is 56 wins and 51 losses out of 107 trades, with a win rate of 52.3% and a cumulative profit/loss of -158,390 yen. For the month of October alone, it is -130,030 yen. All profit/loss figures are before considering taxes, commissions, etc.

Was ChatGPT’s prediction from the previous day correct?

For INPEX, ChatGPT had it as a conditional purchase candidate, evaluating the rise in crude oil prices and the upward shift in the morning session’s support level. The assumed purchase range was 3,840–3,850 yen, but the actual purchase price was 3,860 yen. It was an entry close to the morning high of 3,863 yen, leaving a risk of buying at the high. Even so, the next day’s selling price exceeded the purchase price, so the judgment of an upward direction was correct. However, the range of the rise was limited.

For MS&AD, it evaluated the inflow of funds into the insurance sector and the price movement that recovered from a dip after the morning rise. Against the assumed purchase range of 5,210–5,220 yen, the actual purchase price of 5,214.8 yen was within the conditions. Since it exceeded the purchase price the next day as well, it can be evaluated that the relative strength confirmed the previous day was maintained at least until the time of sale.

Although the prediction of direction was successful for both stocks, the range of the rise was around 0.3%. It is necessary to evaluate the ability to capture the direction until the next day and the ability to select stocks that can aim for large profits separately.

New purchases of real estate and information security stocks on the 23rd

I purchased 100 shares of **Mitsui Fudosan (8801)** at 1,596.4 yen. The evaluation factors were the upward shift in the morning low, the recovery of the VWAP, and the inflow of funds into the real estate sector. However, it exceeded ChatGPT’s recommended limit of 1,589.5 yen by 6.9 yen.

**Trend Micro (4704)** was purchased at 7,374 yen for 100 shares. I evaluated the price movement that rebounded after the morning decline, where the short-term overheating feeling was relatively small, and the demand for information security. However, this also exceeded the recommended limit of 7,360 yen by 14 yen.

For both, ChatGPT’s judgment was “Conditional BUY,” not an unconditional purchase recommendation. The actual execution this time did not meet the price conditions initially set. This point is a verification issue for trading rules, separate from the profit/loss of the next business day.

Verifying margin selling for Furuya Metal as well

On the 23rd, I opened a new margin short position of 100 shares of Furuya Metal (7826) at 8,740 yen. In addition to the conventional strategy of “buying rising stocks,” this is a trade that turns a decline by the next business day into profit.

The margin short position subject to this swing verification is only the 8,740 yen position, which has not yet been settled.

Next time, I will check the price movements of the two cash stocks, the impact of purchasing above the recommended price on profit and loss, and the effectiveness of margin short selling.

My thoughts on this time

・Furuya Metal was dropping nicely in the morning, so when I tried day trading with a margin short during the lunch break, it rebounded perfectly. You wouldn’t normally expect it to rebound that cleanly. I ended up carrying it over even though I didn’t intend to. Please drop on Monday. ・Surprisingly, I was in the green all week. I wouldn’t mind if days like this continued, but I really want to win big.

※This article is a record of personal trades and verification, and does not recommend buying or selling specific stocks.

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