Coinbase Stock Is Down 31% This Year. Should You Buy the Drop?
Key Takeaways
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Coinbase stock is down 30.5% this year, closing at $164.45 on October 23, after a $359.5 million second-quarter loss made it three straight quarters in the red.
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Bitcoin, by contrast, was down only 3.5% as of October 21.
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Analysts’ mean target of $213.55 sits 29.9% above the last close, and they expect normalized EPS to swing from a $1.68 loss in 2026 to $3.02 in 2027.
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Third-quarter results land October 29, with services revenue guided to $500 million to $580 million.
Coinbase Global (COIN:NASDAQ) stock is down 30.5% this year, closing at $164.45 on October 23. The crypto exchange has posted a net loss in all three quarterly reports it has released since January.
That drop runs far deeper than the market Coinbase serves. Bitcoin was down only 3.5% for the year as of October 21, according to Reuters. The stock’s problem has been the income statement, not the coin.
A Loss-Making Year Pinned Coinbase Stock Near $140
Most of the damage came in the first six weeks. Bitcoin fell roughly 27% in the month to mid-February, and Coinbase stock closed at $140.95 on February 12. That was the day the company reported a $667 million fourth-quarter net loss. Most of the loss came from a $718 million drop in the value of its crypto portfolio, and most of that drop was unrealized.
Rallies into the low $210s in March and May didn’t hold. Coinbase cut about 14% of its staff on May 5 and reported a $394.1 million first-quarter loss two days later. Then on July 30 it posted a second-quarter loss of $1.36 per share. That missed the $0.23 analysts expected, and revenue of $1.22 billion fell short for a third straight quarter. Shares fell more than 13% in early trading the next day.
Washington Moved COIN Both Ways
The best stretch of the second half started August 19. That day bitcoin pushed past $68,000, and the White House hosted crypto executives as the SEC weighed new rules, Reuters reported. Coinbase stock closed at $160.20 that day and was back in the high $180s by early September.
Then on September 15, the Senate voted 49 to 50 on cloture for the CLARITY Act. That was 11 votes short of the 60 needed to open debate, and Coinbase stock fell more than 8% that day. CEO Brian Armstrong had already addressed that outcome on the Q2 2026 earnings call. He said that without the bill “it’s actually kind of just business as usual for Coinbase,” since the SEC and CFTC had signaled they would write their own rules.
The stock still climbed back near $200 in late September before sliding through October. It fell 4.5% on October 13 alone as bitcoin hit a one-week low.
TIKR Tracks 39 Analysts on Coinbase. How Many Say “Buy”?
See the full breakdown of Buy, Hold, and Sell ratings on Coinbase, along with Wall Street’s revenue and earnings estimates, all in one place. More than 500,000 investors use TIKR to research stocks like this one. See Coinbase’s Analyst Ratings
The Street Still Sits Well Above Coinbase Stock
The Street’s mean target started the year at $364.14 and bottomed at $194.97 in July. It has since recovered to $213.55, 29.9% above the October 23 close by my math. The estimates explain the gap.
Analysts see normalized EPS of negative $1.68 for 2026, then $3.02 in 2027 and $4.85 in 2028. At $164.45, the stock trades at 54.5 times that 2027 figure, so the mean target leans almost entirely on next year’s swing to profit.
The October 29 Report Coinbase Holders Should Circle
Coinbase reports third-quarter results after the close on October 29. It guided subscription and services revenue to $500 million to $580 million, against $555.1 million in the second quarter. That line is the steadiest part of the business. Holding it while the loss narrows would give the 2027 estimate something to stand on.
A fourth straight loss with services below $500 million would leave the stock tracking bitcoin’s next move instead of its own earnings. Until that services line holds, I’d treat the 29.9% gap to the Street’s mean as a bet on 2027, not a discount.
So What Is Coinbase Stock Actually Worth?
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