Comparison of Nikkei 225 Option IV, VIX, Overseas ETFs, and National Currency Trends from October 26 to 30

The graphs show the trends of near-term and long-term ATM IV, the S&P 500, and the VIX over the past year up to last weekend.

Although the Nikkei 225 rose on a weekly basis, futures fell to the 62,000 level on Friday night, and option IV regained strength over the weekend.
The S&P 500 fell below its 100-day moving average for the first time since April, and the VIX briefly exceeded its October 16 high.

Last week saw sluggish movement due to earnings reports from major U.S. companies.
However, the VI (Volatility Index) is still lower than it was in March of this year, and some sectors remain firm, so it is not a state of total pessimism.

Here are the trends for various overseas ETFs and national currencies. The comments refer to last week’s movements.

Among Global Markets equity ETFs, Latin American equities (ILF) plunged 14%, while Emerging Markets equities (VWO) and Emerging Markets Value equities (DFEV) also declined.
European equities (VGK), Quality Factor (ex-US) equities (IQLT), and Developed Markets (ex-US) equities (VEA) were among those that posted gains.

Among Developed Markets equity ETFs, Hong Kong equities (EWH), Swedish equities (EWD), and German equities (EWG) rose.
Taiwanese equities (EWT), Spanish equities (EWP), and Singaporean equities (EWS) were among those that posted losses.

Among Emerging Markets equity ETFs, Brazilian equities (EWZ) plummeted 23% following the results of the Brazilian presidential election, Argentine equities (ARGT) and other South American markets were weak, and Indonesian equities (EIDO), which had rebounded the previous week, fell 6%.
Indian equities (INDA), Chinese equities (FXI), and Saudi Arabian equities (KSA) were among those that rose.

Regarding national currencies, the Dollar Index (DX-Y.NYB) showed little movement, the Brazilian real plunged, and the U.S. dollar strengthened against the New Zealand dollar and the South African rand.
The U.S. dollar weakened against the Russian ruble, the Malaysian ringgit, and the yuan.

All overseas commodity ETFs declined, with silver (SLV), platinum (PPLT), and palladium (PALL) hitting year-to-date lows.

U.S. market bond ETFs all rose as U.S. Treasury yields across all maturities fell again last week.

Among various U.S. equity ETFs, small-cap, value, and high-dividend stocks were strong, with U.S. high-dividend stocks (SCHD) hitting a new high.
Large-cap and growth stocks were sold off again last week.

Among S&P 500 sector ETFs, healthcare stocks (XLV), materials stocks (XLB), and utility stocks (XLU) rose.
Due to the decline in Alphabet (GOOG), communication services stocks (XLC) fell 5% and tech stocks (XLK) fell 2%.

Among equity sector ETFs, biotech stocks (XBI), aerospace & defense stocks (ITA), and home construction stocks (XHB) rose.
Software stocks (IGV) and the ARK Next Generation Internet ETF (ARKW) fell 5%, and gold mining stocks (GDX) fell 3% due to the decline in gold prices.

As a result of the Brazilian presidential election, Brazilian equities (EWZ) suffered a 23% crash.
This was largely influenced by the reversal defeat of the candidate who was leading in the first round of voting, representing a major fluctuation unrelated to economic conditions or corporate performance.
Speaking of elections, British equities (EWU) also fell significantly during the 2016 Brexit (UK’s withdrawal from the European Union).
The U.S. midterm elections are this week. I want to be cautious about volatility after the election.

・Notes
・This article is not intended to solicit investment.
・Specific stock names are mentioned with the intention of making it easier for readers to verify the authenticity of the article data.
・I cannot be held responsible for any actions taken based on the information in this article.
・I strive for data accuracy, but depending on the timing of acquisition, some data may be displayed without reflecting dividends or distributions. Since the data is re-acquired by going back into the past each time, it will be corrected in the next post.