[Dow +$423, US stocks rebound broadly] Telecom giants plunge on reports of SpaceX acquiring 800MHz band | Focus on CPI, bank, and semiconductor earnings next week | October 10 …

Good evening, this is Fukkun🦁

Last night in the US market, all three major indices rose.

The NY Dow rebounded significantly, up $423.31 (+0.83%) to $51,654.95. The NASDAQ Composite rose +0.64%, and the S&P 500 rose +0.59%. By sector, real estate (+1.88%), consumer discretionary (+1.69%), and healthcare (+1.58%) led the gains, while the financial sector also remained firm at +0.91%.

Meanwhile, there is a divergence within tech stocks. While Microsoft and Amazon rose significantly, the semiconductor index SOX continued to fall, down -0.41%.

Also, a major focus among individual stocks last night was the move by SpaceX toward a full-scale entry into the telecommunications business. Following reports that SpaceX reached an agreement to acquire nationwide 800MHz band spectrum rights, T-Mobile fell about -13.3%, and AT&T and Verizon also saw significant declines. On the other hand, buying interest gathered in infrastructure companies such as telecom base stations, leading to a situation where there were winners and losers even within the same telecommunications industry.

Additionally, the October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index came in at 46.3, below market expectations, and inflation expectations also rose. Uncertainty remains regarding both the economy and prices.

Next week, the earnings season for major US banks will begin in earnest, and in addition to the September CPI, earnings announcements from ASML and TSMC are also approaching. Today, as a weekend edition, I will organize the points of focus for next week while reviewing the market trends from last night and the past week.

🎯 US Stock Summary

• [1] All three major indices rebounded: The Dow was up $423, and the S&P 500 was up +0.59%.

• [2] Real estate, consumer discretionary, and healthcare rose: Financial stocks were also firm, and a wide range of sectors were bought.

• [3] Telecom giants plunge on reports of SpaceX spectrum acquisition agreement: On the other hand, telecom infrastructure companies surged.

• [4] NASDAQ rebounds but SOX continues to fall: The polarization of AI-related stocks is becoming clear.

• [5] Michigan index falls below expectations, inflation expectations rise: The tug-of-war between the economy and inflation continues.

• [6] Focus on major US bank earnings, CPI, and ASML/TSMC earnings next week: It is an important week to gauge the direction of the market.

1 | Last night’s US market | Broad buying rebound, three major indices rise

• NY Dow: 51,654.95 (+423.31 / +0.83%)

• S&P 500: 7,811.54 (+46.18 / +0.59%)

• NASDAQ Composite: 27,366.17 (+172.83 / +0.64%)

• NASDAQ 100: 30,883.15 (+157.34 / +0.51%)

• SOX (Semiconductor): 12,572.42 (-51.29 / -0.41%)

• Russell 2000: 2,806.98 (+12.85 / +0.46%)

The US market last night saw a reversal from the previous days’ declines, with buying returning across a broad range of sectors. The NY Dow saw a significant rebound of over $400, while the NASDAQ, S&P 500, and small-cap Russell 2000 all rose in tandem. However, selling pressure on semiconductor-related stocks was not completely wiped out, and the SOX index remained slightly lower, down 0.41%.

[Fixed-point observation for accumulation investors]

• VTI (Total Stock Market ETF): 381.94 (+2.38 / +0.63%)

• VT (Total World Stock ETF): 159.83 (+1.10 / +0.69%)

• VYM (High Dividend Yield ETF): 158.75 (+0.50 / +0.32%)

2 | Sector Trends | Real Estate, Consumer Discretionary, etc. lead the market

By S&P 500 sector, 9 out of 11 industries rose, with only Energy (-0.18%) and Communication Services (-0.40%) declining.

[Top gaining sectors]

Financial stocks were also solid at +0.91%, but real estate, consumer discretionary, and healthcare showed even greater gains, indicating that capital flowed broadly into the entire market.

3 | Individual Stock Movements | Industry Landscape Shaken by SpaceX Entry Speculation

[Trends in Mega-Tech and Dow Components]

• MSFT (Microsoft): +2.38%

• AMZN (Amazon): +3.29%

• AAPL (Apple): -1.11%

• NVDA (Nvidia): -0.52%

[Notable Stocks & Topics]

• Telecom stocks plunge on speculation of SpaceX entering the communications business: What shook the market significantly last night was the move by Elon Musk-led “SpaceX.” It was reported that they reached an agreement to acquire the rights to use the 800MHz frequency band on a nationwide scale in the US. Since regulatory approval is required, it is not yet certain that they will become the fourth mobile carrier with a terrestrial network, but concerns about declining profits due to the emergence of a new competitor spread among existing carriers, and major telecom companies such as T-Mobile (approx. -13.3%), AT&T (approx. -9.9%), and Verizon (approx. -8.8%) plunged.

• Telecom infrastructure companies surge: What is interesting about this SpaceX move is that the stock market reaction was the exact opposite within the same communications industry. While existing carriers were sold off, buying interest gathered in communication base station infrastructure companies like American Tower (approx. +9.3%) and Crown Castle (approx. +15.6%) due to expectations of increased demand for new equipment. Even within the same industry, market evaluation varies greatly depending on the business model. As an investor, I feel it is important to discern “who will be exposed to competition and who will capture new demand” amidst such structural changes.

• Moderna is the top gainer, added to NASDAQ 100: Among individual stocks, Moderna (MRNA) surged +14.21%, becoming the top gainer among S&P 500 components. Additionally, Moderna was newly added to the NASDAQ 100 index as of October 9, replacing Warner Bros. Discovery as a component of the index. New inclusion in an index is a factor to watch as it can lead to changes in supply and demand from index-linked funds, etc. (However, it cannot be concluded that this stock price surge was solely due to the index inclusion).

4 | Commodity Market and Macroeconomic Indicators | Inflation Expectations Rise in Michigan Index

[Results of Major Economic Indicators]

Regarding the closely watched University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, the result was “46.3,” falling below market expectations. What I want to pay even more attention to in this survey, in addition to the deterioration of consumer sentiment, is the point that inflation expectations rose (1-year ahead inflation expectation: 4.6% -> 4.7%, long-term inflation expectation: 3.4% -> 3.5%).

While anxiety over the economy is rising, caution regarding prices is also intensifying. If the CPI to be released next week shows signs of re-igniting inflation, it could act as a headwind for the stock market, particularly for high-PER growth stocks, through a rise in long-term interest rates, so caution is required.

[Commodity Market Trends]

• WTI Crude Oil Futures: $91.66

• Brent Crude Oil: $104.42

• NY Gold Futures: $4,220.30 (+$63.30 / +1.52%) *Commodity futures prices are displayed as of 5:59 AM JST on October 10

Although crude oil prices are hovering at high levels, Brent crude fell slightly from the previous day, providing some relief from inflation concerns. On the other hand, gold, a safe-haven asset, is rising strongly.

5 | Interest Rates and Foreign Exchange | Long-term interest rates rose slightly

[US Bond Yields]

• US 2-Year Treasury Yield: 4.789% (+0.033)

• US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 5.242% (+0.013)

• US 30-Year Treasury Yield: 5.598% (-0.009)

The US 10-year Treasury yield rose slightly from the previous day to 5.242%. Inflation expectations in the University of Michigan survey are rising, and persistent upward pressure on prices remains a point of caution for the market.

[Foreign Exchange Trends]

The exchange rate has shifted slightly toward a stronger dollar and weaker yen, hovering in the low 158 yen range.

6 | Market Sentiment and Crypto Assets | Comparison of Fear & Greed and Crypto Assets

​[Market Sentiment]

​Following the rebound in stock prices, the VIX index has fallen to 14.84, easing caution. The Fear & Greed Index, a measure of market sentiment, remains flat at 45, staying at the lower end of the neutral zone.

​[Crypto Assets (24-hour change)]

• ​Bitcoin (JPY): 13,122,721 yen (+0.20%)

• ​Bitcoin (USD): $82,830.70 (+0.22%)

• ​Crypto Fear & Greed Index: 64 (+5) *Data acquisition time for crypto market: 17:22 JST, October 10

​This contrast is a very interesting point. While the stock market (Fear & Greed) is at 45, at the lower end of the neutral zone, the crypto market (Crypto Fear & Greed) maintains a relatively bullish sentiment at 64. It is clear that investor sentiment in stocks and crypto assets does not necessarily align.

​7 | Summary of this week and outlook for next week (Key events)

​[This week’s US stock weekly performance]

Looking back at the major indices for the week, the S&P 500 rose 1.2%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.9%, and the NASDAQ Composite rose 0.6%, meaning all three major indices rose together.

Meanwhile, the small-cap Russell 2000 fell 0.9%. During the week, the market fluctuated significantly due to caution regarding AI-related stocks and rising long-term interest rates, but the major large-cap indices maintained gains on a weekly basis. However, small-cap stocks fell for the week, indicating that the market was not uniformly strong. With interest rates remaining high, it is worth paying attention to the difference in capital inflows between large-cap and small-cap stocks.

​Also, this week’s market was not a simple case of selling high-tech and buying value. As the movement to assess the profitability of AI investments intensified, selling remained in semiconductors, while software and some large-cap tech stocks remained firm. Investors may be starting to select stocks based on individual company earnings structures and growth expectations rather than grouping all AI-related stocks together.

​[Important schedule for next week: Checking inflation indicators and corporate earnings]

Next week, I am focusing not only on the CPI figures but also on the content of major bank earnings. Bank earnings will reveal the reality of the US economy through loan balances, loan loss provisions, and credit card delinquency status. Additionally, with ASML and TSMC earnings, I want to confirm whether the expansion of AI-related investment is continuing through their orders and capital expenditure outlooks. In addition to inflation and interest rate issues, can corporate earnings justify the current high stock price levels? Next week looks to be an important week for the market to confirm both.

• ​October 12 (Monday) Japanese market closed (Sports Day) US stock market open for regular trading / US bond market generally closed

• Tuesday, October 13 23:00: US September Existing Home Sales US major bank earnings (JPMorgan, etc., starting sequentially)

• Wednesday, October 14 ★Most important event 21:30: US September Consumer Price Index (CPI) ASML earnings (scheduled for release in the morning, European time)

• Thursday, October 15 US Market: TSMC earnings 21:30: US September Retail Sales / US September Producer Price Index (PPI)

8 | Outlook for the Japanese market | Focus on the contrast between TOPIX and Nikkei 225

【Comparison of TOPIX and Nikkei 225】

In the Japanese market on October 9, the Nikkei 225 fell slightly to 69,030.92 yen (-11.19 yen), while the TOPIX rose to 4,104.81 (+0.33%). While the Nikkei 225 struggled to gain ground due to declines in semiconductor-related stocks, the TOPIX maintained gains, highlighting the divergence in strength between different stocks and sectors in the Japanese market.

Meanwhile, the CME Nikkei 225 futures (yen-denominated) on the morning of October 10 were at 69,085 yen, almost the same level as the previous day’s cash closing price. After the long weekend, the focus will be on whether the selling pressure on semiconductor-related stocks will ease, or whether large-cap value stocks like banks will support the market.

【Trends in Japanese ADRs and PTS】

In the Japanese ADR volatility ranking, Lasertec (+5.90%), Nintendo (+4.97%), and Advantest (+4.34%) rose, while Fast Retailing (-3.60%) fell.

Note: This ranking shows the volatility of the ADRs themselves and differs from the yen-converted rise/fall rate relative to the Tokyo Stock Exchange closing price, so it does not directly indicate the rise or fall of Japanese stocks on the next business day.

【Fukkun’s Thermometer: Trends in Mitsubishi UFJ (8306)】

The yen-converted value of Mitsubishi UFJ ADR, which I monitor regularly, is 3,543 yen, up 2.34% from the Tokyo Stock Exchange closing price. Sumitomo Mitsui FG was also up 1.81% and Mizuho FG was up 2.24%; all mega-banks were at levels exceeding their Tokyo Stock Exchange closing prices in ADR-converted terms. However, since ADR-converted values include the impact of exchange rate fluctuations, this does not guarantee a similar rise in the Japanese market after the long weekend.

9 | Fukkun’s Perspective

Last night’s US market saw the three major indices rebound, but it was also a day that highlighted structural changes in business that cannot be explained by simple “stock price ups and downs,” such as the polarization of AI-related stocks and the tectonic shifts in the telecommunications industry due to the prospect of SpaceX’s entry.

In particular, as indicated by the contrasting stock price performance of telecommunications infrastructure companies and existing carriers, determining “who will be exposed to competition and who will capture new demand” will become increasingly important in future investments.

Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed Index remains at 45, at the lower end of the neutral zone, and has not yet reached the extreme fear level (Fear & Greed 10 or below) where I would consider full-scale contrarian buying.

That is precisely why I believe now is not the time to rush in, but rather a phase to monitor high-quality stocks in preparation for the next buying opportunity.

What I value most is the “3-4-3 split rule.”

Instead of investing all your capital at once, you should invest it in stages according to predetermined conditions while checking market sentiment, RSI, VIX, and so on. I believe that not being swayed by market emotions or temporary news is more important than anything else for long-term wealth creation.

During the three-day weekend, let’s forget about the market for a while and fully enjoy “DIE WITH ZERO” time—eating delicious food with family or going on autumn outings—to enrich our “experience assets” in life.

The future belongs only to those who prepare.🦁

[Reference/Data Sources]

• Economic indicator forecasts and results: Based on data released by the US Department of Labor (DOL/ETA), Reuters, Associated Press, SBI Securities, nikkei225jp.com, etc.

[Disclaimer]

This article is for informational purposes only and does not recommend or solicit the buying or selling of specific financial products or investment actions. Market data is constantly changing, and please make actual investment decisions at your own risk.

Fukkun

Foreign-affiliated manager × 25 years of investment experience. Reviewing the US market in 5 minutes every morning 🇺🇸 → Outlook on Japanese stocks 🇯🇵. Weekdays: market analysis; weekends: deep dives into investment strategy × work style × life planning. I publish notes that deliver not just breaking news, but also thinking, strategy, and structure to enhance long-term judgment and life choices.📈