[Evening Market Memo (October 8, 2026)] – Down 993 yen, falling below 70,000 yen. Global interest rate hikes push down AI and semiconductor stocks

The Nikkei Stock Average fell for the second consecutive day, dropping below 70,000 yen and closing at the day’s low.

Today’s Nikkei Stock Average was 69,042.11 yen, down 993.60 yen (1.42%) from the previous day. On the Tokyo Stock Exchange Prime Market, 1,182 stocks, nearly 80% of the total, declined, while only 327 stocks rose (Nikkei).

The primary weight on the market is the global rise in interest rates. In the U.S. on the 7th, the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds (long-term interest rates) temporarily rose to 5.36%, which, according to the Nikkei, was the highest level since April 2002. The rise in interest rates, which began due to concerns over French public finances, is spreading to other countries. As interest rates rise, stocks that have been bought in anticipation of future growth tend to look more overvalued.

On top of that, Taiwan’s TSMC (a major semiconductor contract manufacturer) released its September sales figures in the afternoon, which, while up 54.6% from the previous year, were down 0.6% from the previous month. Kabutan writes that this dampened expectations for AI and semiconductor stocks, leading to an increase in futures selling toward the close. The uncertainty surrounding the situation in the Middle East also discouraged buying.

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■ Stocks that attracted capital today

Trading values are based on Kabutan’s rankings (as of 16:00 on the 8th), converted to 100 million yen units.

1st: Kioxia Holdings (285A) – Approx. 737.7 billion yen – 17,900 yen – Unchanged from previous day (0.00%)
This is a memory (semiconductor for storage) company. It was the top stock by trading value for the third consecutive day. The Japan Exchange Group announced on the 7th that it would gradually increase the free-float ratio (the percentage of shares circulating in the market) used for TOPIX from 15% to 50%. The Nikkei writes that buying from funds linked to the index was expected, and the stock rose by more than 4% at one point. Kabutan also cites the ripple effect of strong earnings from South Korea’s Samsung Electronics. However, it closed at the same price as the previous day.

2nd: Advantest (6857) – Approx. 531.2 billion yen – 40,930 yen – Down 360 yen (0.87% decline)
This is a semiconductor testing equipment company. Following the decline in U.S. semiconductor stocks, it was pressured by profit-taking selling in the morning, falling by as much as 1.9%. Afterward, as the Nikkei writes, bargain hunting (buying at a lower price) occurred as it is considered a stock with strong earnings potential, and there were moments when it turned to gains.

3rd: Taiyo Yuden (6976) – Approx. 346.9 billion yen – 10,955 yen – Down 505 yen (4.41% decline)
This is an electronic components company. The reason for today’s decline could not be confirmed in the Nikkei or Kabutan.

4th: SoftBank Group (9984) – Approx. 231.2 billion yen – 6,040 yen – Down 270 yen (4.28% decline)
As part of the AI-related stocks that had been firm recently, it was pressured by profit-taking selling. According to the Nikkei, these three stocks alone—SoftBank Group, Tokyo Electron, and Fujikura—pushed the Nikkei Stock Average down by over 400 yen.

5th: Lasertec (6920) – Approx. 218.3 billion yen – 46,610 yen – Down 90 yen (0.19% decline)
This is a semiconductor testing equipment company. It fell slightly. No specific news could be confirmed.

6th: Murata Manufacturing (6981) – Approx. 174.1 billion yen – 8,267 yen – Down 416 yen (4.79% decline)
This is an electronic components company. No specific news could be confirmed. Along with Taiyo Yuden, another electronic components company, it saw a decline in the 4% range.

7th: NEXT FUNDS Nikkei 225 Leveraged Index ETF (1570) – Approx. 171.5 billion yen – 76,020 yen – Down 2,160 yen (2.76% decline)
This is an exchange-traded fund that moves at approximately twice the rate of the Nikkei Stock Average. Since the index fell by 1.42%, it declined in the same direction.

8th: Fujikura (5803) – Approx. 165.4 billion yen – 5,512 yen – Down 188 yen (3.30% decline)
This is a wire and cable company. The Nikkei lists it as one of the AI-related stocks that pushed down the index. No new information specific to this stock could be confirmed.

9th: Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group (8306) – Approx. 130.4 billion yen – 3,504 yen – Down 118 yen (3.26% decline)
This is a bank. No information specific to this stock could be confirmed. Mizuho Financial Group, ranked 15th, also fell by 3.40%, with major banks being sold across the board.

10th: Disco (6146) – Approx. 115.5 billion yen – 61,140 yen – Down 240 yen (0.39% decline)
This is a semiconductor manufacturing equipment company. Following a 6% decline the previous day, it fell slightly. No new information could be confirmed for today.

Incidentally, Tier IV (593A), ranked 11th, stood out with a 15.97% gain. It is an autonomous driving company that will be added to the new TOPIX from the Growth Market, and Kabutan writes that funds, believed to be from institutional investors, entered from the morning.

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■ Main news today

Rising global interest rates weigh on growth stocks

U.S. long-term interest rates rose to as high as 5.36%, and the Nikkei reports market sentiment that “rising global interest rates are a burden on the stock market.” Sectors that have been bought based on future growth expectations, such as AI and semiconductors, are particularly susceptible.

Meanwhile, the auction for Japan’s 30-year bonds yielded a safe result, and domestic long-term interest rates fell (Kabutan, Nikkei). Kabutan also cites comments from asset management firms that “concerns about high interest rates will gradually fade.” Whether domestic interest rates stabilize will likely affect the movement of bank and real estate stocks.

Announcement of the new TOPIX serves as a clue for buying and selling

The new TOPIX constituent stocks announced on the 7th drove today’s trading. Mitsubishi Corporation fell 1.83% as its lower weighting in the new TOPIX prompted selling. Other trading company stocks such as Mitsui & Co. and Marubeni were also sluggish (Nikkei).

Shibusawa Warehouse, which was removed from the TOPIX, fell 4.83%. There are 683 “transition measure stocks” whose weightings will be reduced in stages, and they will be removed at the end of July 2028 (Kabutan). Since index-linked funds will gradually sell off these stocks, this is a factor that will affect the supply and demand of small and mid-cap stocks for a long time.

Buying in security stocks due to a surge in cyberattacks

Following a series of unauthorized access incidents and information leaks at companies and local governments, Prime Minister Takaichi indicated a policy of calling on companies to be vigilant (Nikkei email headline). The government held a meeting of relevant ministries on the afternoon of the 8th (Kabutan).

Trend Micro rose 3.89%, and its market capitalization, including treasury stock, recovered to the 1 trillion yen level (Nikkei). Cyber Security Cloud and FFRI Security hit their daily limit highs. Conversely, Nissui, which experienced a system failure at a group company, hit an 11-month low.

Additionally, following reports of authorities investigating the agricultural machinery market in the U.S., which led to selling in stocks like Caterpillar, Komatsu fell 5.51% and Kubota also declined (Nikkei, Kabutan).

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■ Today’s Market

Nikkei 225 (Oct 8 close): 69,042.11 yen, down 993.60 yen (1.42% drop)
TOPIX (Oct 8 close): 4,091.46, down 62.65 points (1.51% drop)
JPX Prime 150 Index (Oct 8 close): 1,726.40, down 26.56 points (1.52% drop)
TSE Prime trading value (approx.): 7.6133 trillion yen
TSE Prime gainers/losers/unchanged: 327 / 1,182 / 43
Dollar-Yen (Oct 8, 18:45, per Kabutan): 158.23 yen
NY Dow (Oct 7 close, per Kabutan): 51,179.87 dollars, down 341.41 dollars
NASDAQ Composite (Oct 7 close, per Kabutan): 27,538.69, down 61.20 points
SOX Index/U.S. Semiconductor Stocks (Oct 7 close, per Kabutan): 13,066.14, down 151.67 points (1.15% drop)
U.S. Long-term Interest Rate (10-year): Hit 5.36% at one point on the 7th (Nikkei)
Domestic Long-term Interest Rate (10-year): Declined (level not specified)
NY Crude Oil Futures (WTI): Not specified

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■ Tomorrow’s Focus

Schedule for Friday, October 9. Only items with specified times are included.

Tomorrow is the SQ (Special Quotation) calculation day for stock index futures and options. It is also the day before a three-day weekend.

After today’s close, Fast Retailing released its earnings. It expects a record profit for the 7th consecutive year, with net profit for the current fiscal year projected to be 560 billion yen, up 3.2% from the previous year, and the Nikkei reports a significant dividend increase. However, according to Kabutan, it fell short of market expectations, and it is trading below today’s closing price in PTS (off-exchange night trading). As it is a stock with a large impact on the Nikkei 225, its movement on SQ day will be a highlight.

Regarding domestic indicators, the August Household Survey will be released before the market opens, and September Machine Tool Orders will be released during trading hours. After the close, Yaskawa Electric will release its earnings, which Kabutan views as “influencing expectations for future corporate earnings.” Earnings for Sansan, Marumae, and Furuno Electric are also scheduled.

Overseas, markets in South Korea and Taiwan are closed. In the U.S., the October University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index will be released. No times are specified for any of these.

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■ Investor Summary

Today’s decline was caused less by bad news from individual companies and more by a shift in the market’s overall yardstick: interest rates. When U.S. long-term interest rates hit a 24-year high, AI and semiconductor stocks, which had been bought on growth expectations, were the first to be sold off. It helps to stay calm if you distinguish whether the reason your holdings are down lies within the company or outside of it.

Another factor is that the impact of the new TOPIX began today. Even large-cap stocks like Mitsubishi Corporation were sold off simply because their weighting in the index decreased. The 683 stocks being removed will face supply-demand pressure in stages until 2028. It would be wise to check whether your holdings are included in the new TOPIX, if their weighting is changing, or if they are being removed.

If you are feeling anxious, there are two things you can do. First, check the level of U.S. long-term interest rates every morning. Second, watch tomorrow’s SQ and Fast Retailing’s stock price to see if the market can recover to the 70,000 yen level.

From a business management perspective, one more thing: cyberattacks are something that can happen to any company, long before they become a stock market issue. As seen with Nissui, there are cases where operations are halted due to unauthorized access at a contractor. I intend to use this opportunity to review where our company’s data is stored and how we should act if a business partner’s system goes down.

Every day, I summarize only the reasons for the market’s movements.
I also write from the perspective of management and parenting in the mornings. Please feel free to check that out as well.