The Federal Reserve kicked off its two-day policy meeting on Tuesday as elevated inflation continues to pose a problem for central bankers who nevertheless seem reluctant to hike rates this month.
Fed watchers expect the central bank to keep benchmark rates in the 3.75% to 4% range, with bond traders pricing in a less than 10% chance of a hike on Wednesday, per CME Group. A rate hike in December appears far more likely, however, according to the Fed’s dot plot and fed funds futures.
Although recent inflation data came in hotter than expected, several officials’ remarks suggest the Fed will hold rates this month to continue assessing additional data. The proximity of the October meeting to the US midterm elections next Tuesday is also seen as a deterrent to bold monetary policy moves.
With the Fed holding rates steady seen as all but given, the focus is on what Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will say at his post-FOMC-meeting press conference on Wednesday. Warsh has deliberately avoided telegraphing future Fed policy moves, but hot inflation could elicit more insight from him into the path forward.
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What time is the Fed meeting?
The Federal Open Market Committee’s two-day policy meeting has started and will conclude at 2 p.m. ET on Wednesday.
The FOMC’s decision on whether to cut, hold, or raise interest rates will be released at 2 p.m. tomorrow. Following that decision, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh will hold a news conference at 2:30 p.m. that will be live-streamed.
This is the seventh FOMC meeting this year. The final Fed meeting of the year will take place from Dec. 8-9 and will include a Summary of Economic Projections, which will be used to gauge where policymakers see rates heading in 2027.
Fed expected to hold rates steady this week despite hot inflation — but signal they’re not done hiking
The Federal Reserve heads into its interest-rate decision this week facing hotter inflation, keeping the meeting live even as markets widely expect the central bank to hold interest rates steady just days before the midterm elections.
Alan Blinder, a former Fed vice chair and a Princeton University economics professor, is expecting a “hawkish pause.”
Although Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh doesn’t favor telegraphing the central bank’s next move, Blinder said the moment calls for clarity.
“This is a perfect time for clear forward guidance that doesn’t quite say, but strongly hints, we’re pausing now, but we stand ready to raise again and even give a hint that the next meeting might be the next interest rate hike.”
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh holds a press conference following a two-day meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) at the Federal Reserve in Washington, D.C., U.S. September 16, 2026. REUTERS/Evan Vucci/File Photo ·Reuters / REUTERS
Fed meeting kicks off as traders broadly expect no hike
The Federal Reserve’s two-day policy meeting kicked off this morning at 9:30 a.m. ET, as scheduled, a Fed spokesperson confirmed.
Expectations remain firm that the Fed will hold rates steady in a range of 3.75% to 4% after hiking by 25 basis points in September. Traders broadly view that the Fed will hike again in December.
But in October, there’s a strong belief the Fed won’t move rates. According to CME Group’s FedWatch, traders see a 90% chance of no move.
