How Caution Toward AI Investment Manifested in the Market: October 22 US Stock Market and Credit Indicators
On October 22, 2026, the US stock market opened lower, led by AI-related companies. Meta’s stock price fell sharply after the start of trading, and the NASDAQ Composite Index also saw a decline of over 1%. Meanwhile, yields in the US Treasury market are falling.
In the October 19 article, ‘Can the Finance Supporting AI Investment Last Until 2030?’, we examined the financing structure supporting the expansion of AI infrastructure investment and its sustainability.
As a follow-up, this report organizes the stock prices and Treasury yields observed after the US market opened on October 22, as well as the status of credit market statistics.
Additionally, we will review trends surrounding Meta’s earnings, Nebius’s large-scale financing, and the initial public offerings (IPOs) of Anthropic and Nscale.
This article is a flash report based on information confirmed as of 23:00 (JST) on October 22, 2026. The US stock market is currently in regular trading, and the stock price and index figures below are not the closing prices for the day.
NASDAQ opens 1.48% lower
In the US stock market on October 22, all three major indices opened lower.
The opening prices for regular trading at 9:30 AM Eastern Time (22:30 JST), as reported by Reuters, are as follows:
-
NASDAQ Composite Index: 26,308.407, down 1.48% from the previous day
-
S&P 500: 7,694.62, down 0.81% from the previous day
-
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 52,788.41, down 0.13% from the previous day
Subsequently, according to Reuters observations at 9:41 AM Eastern Time (22:41 JST), the NASDAQ Composite Index was at 26,312.94, down 1.46% from the previous day; the S&P 500 was at 7,694.03, down 0.81%; and the Dow Jones was at 52,716.35, down 0.26%.
Among individual stocks, Meta fell 6.7%, while Amazon and Nvidia each fell about 2%. In the semiconductor sector, Intel dropped 5.3%, and selling spread to AMD, Qualcomm, and others. These are flash figures from Reuters reporting market conditions around 9:41 AM and do not indicate subsequent price movements or the day’s closing prices.
However, factors other than AI investment are also contributing to this stock price decline. Rising oil prices and concerns over supply disruptions in the Middle East were also on the market’s radar.
Therefore, it is not possible to isolate and evaluate only the caution toward AI investment based on the scale of the stock price decline. Nevertheless, it can be confirmed that concerns regarding the capital expenditure burden of AI-related companies and the recovery of those investments were significant factors in the market after the opening.
Source: Reuters — Wall St opens lower as AI jitters return, oil rises
Source: Reuters — Nasdaq leads Wall Street lower on AI spending jitters; oil prices rebound
The Scale of Capital Expenditure Indicated by Meta’s Earnings
One of the companies that saw a significant stock price decline this time is Meta.
In its third-quarter 2026 earnings report released on October 21, Meta reported revenue of $64.601 billion, a 26% increase year-over-year. Meanwhile, operating income was $12.988 billion, down from $20.535 billion in the same period last year.
Capital expenditures for the quarter reached $34.91 billion, including principal payments on finance leases. Cash flow from operating activities was $32.79 billion, and free cash flow was negative $2.12 billion.
Additionally, regarding its full-year 2026 capital expenditure outlook, Meta has raised the lower end of its guidance from the previous $130–$145 billion to $135–$145 billion.
These figures indicate that Meta’s revenue from its large-scale existing business and the burden of capital expenditures, including those for AI, are coexisting.
However, Meta’s capital expenditures also include infrastructure for its existing business. Furthermore, litigation-related expenses were recorded in the third quarter, so the decline in operating income cannot be attributed entirely to AI investment.
Simultaneously with the earnings report, the company also announced plans to create a new class of non-voting Class C common stock.
This is a structural change approved by the board of directors, scheduled to take effect on January 19, 2027. The plan is to issue one share of Class C stock as a dividend for each existing share of Class A and Class B stock, a mechanism that is economically equivalent to a stock split.
Meta explains that the new stock class will provide flexibility for future growth financing and other purposes. However, this announcement does not mean that the company is executing a capital raise through the external sale of new shares.
This distinction is important when evaluating Meta’s financial position.
The company continues to have a strong revenue base, but market sentiment regarding its massive capital expenditures and the outlook for their recovery can shift. The stock price decline on October 22 occurred amidst such a situation.
Source: Meta — Meta Reports Third Quarter 2026 Results
Source: Reuters — Meta falls as investors balance Muse growth with rising AI costs
US Treasury Yields Moved in the Opposite Direction of the Stock Market
In the US Treasury market on October 22, bond yields fell concurrently with the decline in the stock market.
In an article reporting on market conditions around 9:41 a.m. U.S. Eastern Time (10:41 p.m. Japan Standard Time), Reuters noted that the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note was approximately 5.0378%.
This was an observed value during the day’s trading and not the final closing price.
Because Treasury prices and yields generally move in opposite directions, a decline in yields signifies an increase in Treasury prices. Reuters reported this movement in connection with a flight to safety.
However, Treasury yields fluctuate due to multiple factors, including expectations for the economy, inflation, and monetary policy. This decline cannot be explained solely by a shift of funds from AI-related stocks to Treasury bonds.
Furthermore, even if U.S. Treasury yields fall, the financing costs for AI-related companies do not necessarily decrease by the same margin.
This is because interest rates on corporate bonds and bank loans involve conditions such as the borrower’s creditworthiness, loan duration, and collateral, in addition to the benchmark interest rate.
To confirm these differences, it is necessary to look at credit indicators in the corporate bond market, not just the Treasury market.
Source: Reuters — Nasdaq leads Wall Street lower on AI spending jitters; oil prices rebound
How to handle the latest statistics on credit spreads
One indicator used to check credit risk in the U.S. corporate bond market is the ICE BofA Option-Adjusted Spread (OAS).
The OAS is an indicator that adjusts for the impact of options embedded in bonds and shows the yield spread over the U.S. Treasury yield curve. While it serves as material for considering credit risk assessment, it also includes the effects of liquidity and market supply and demand.
The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s economic database, FRED, publishes OAS series for investment-grade corporate bonds, high-yield corporate bonds, and CCC-rated or lower corporate bonds, respectively.
On October 22, values for these series with an observation date of October 21 were released. The update time was 8:56 a.m. U.S. Central Daylight Time (10:56 p.m. Japan Standard Time).
Therefore, the price movements after the start of trading in the stock market on October 22 and the confirmed statistics for the corporate bond market on October 21 refer to different observation dates.
Additionally, the ICE BofA series posted on FRED are subject to copyright and data usage terms by ICE Data Indices.
Because the terms explicitly require prior written permission for the disclosure or distribution of index data and statistics to third parties, this article refrains from reprinting the numerical values or differences of said data and instead provides the official reference sources.
The series confirmed are the following three types:
ICE BofA US Corporate Index Option-Adjusted Spread (Investment-Grade Corporate Bonds)
ICE BofA US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (High Yield Corporate Bonds)
ICE BofA CCC & Lower US High Yield Index Option-Adjusted Spread (CCC Rated and Below)
Nebius Secures $3.5 Billion Financing Facility
While caution toward AI infrastructure-related companies is visible in the stock market, new capital supply continues.
On October 22, AI cloud provider Nebius announced that it had secured a $3.5 billion senior secured financing facility provided by Citi.
The main terms disclosed are as follows:
-
Facility Amount: $3.5 billion
-
Term: 364 days
-
Initial Interest Rate: Term SOFR + 2.75% per annum
-
Interest Rate Spread: Subject to an increase of up to 3.50% per annum, with other adjustments applicable
-
Use of Proceeds: Data center development, GPU procurement, and general corporate purposes
Citi serves as the lead arranger, agent, and collateral agent.
However, it cannot be determined from this announcement that the full $3.5 billion has already been drawn down. Furthermore, it cannot be confirmed from this document alone whether Citi will ultimately hold the entire credit risk alone.
This financing facility is significant as an example of Nebius securing access to short-term capital expenditure funding.
On the other hand, the term is 364 days, and it is not a long-term loan that directly supports investments through 2030. Nebius itself anticipates further external financing for business expansion from 2027 onwards.
The establishment of this loan indicates that capital supply to the AI infrastructure sector continues, but it does not mean that all future funding needs have been met.
Source: Nebius — Nebius secures $3.5 billion financing facility with Citi (distributed via Business Wire)
Differences are also emerging in the IPO plans of Anthropic and Nscale
On October 22, Reuters reported that while Anthropic is aiming for an initial public offering (IPO) in mid-November, AI infrastructure provider Nscale and data center operator Switch have postponed their IPO plans.
According to sources interviewed by Reuters, Anthropic could release its prospectus as early as late October and begin investor marketing activities during the week of November 9.
Meanwhile, Nscale and Switch are said to have moved their listing schedules to later in the year. Regarding Nscale, one of the sources interviewed by Reuters explained that responding to comments from US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) staff was part of the reason for the delay.
These reports are based on information obtained from sources and are not officially confirmed listing schedules. They are subject to change in the future.
Furthermore, it cannot be concluded that fundraising has become difficult solely based on the postponement of an IPO. This is because factors such as corporate valuation at the time of listing, regulatory procedures, and investor demand are involved.
Nevertheless, the fact that differences are emerging among AI-related companies regarding access to capital markets and listing plans provides material for considering the future fundraising environment.
Source: Reuters — Anthropic IPO stands alone as AI market jitters sideline others
What can be learned from the market on October 22
From the information confirmed this time, it is clear that market evaluation surrounding AI investment is moving in multiple directions.
In the stock market, the share prices of AI-related companies, including Meta, fell. Meanwhile, a decline in yields has been observed in the US Treasury market. Additionally, Nebius has secured a new $3.5 billion credit facility, indicating that the supply of funds to the AI infrastructure sector has not ceased.
In the IPO market as well, it is reported that while Anthropic is aiming for a listing, companies like Nscale have postponed their plans.
These movements indicate that the supply of funds to AI-related companies and the market’s evaluation of those investments do not necessarily move in the same direction.
However, this information includes different timeframes. Stock prices are flash reports from immediately after the start of trading on October 22, corporate bond statistics are observed values from October 21, and information regarding loans and IPOs concerns individual companies’ fundraising plans.
These cannot be treated as market reactions at the same point in time.
The issue of whether the financing supporting AI investment can be sustained until 2030, which was examined in the article on October 19, cannot be concluded based on this market fluctuation alone.
Short-term stock price fluctuations, corporate fundraising conditions, actual capital investment, and future earnings and cash flow are different indicators, even if they are related.
This observation serves as a record indicating a situation where expectations for AI investment and caution regarding capital burdens coexist.
Moving forward, it will be necessary to cross-reference not only the stock market but also trends in lending conditions and credit markets, as well as changes in actual corporate capital demand and earnings.
This is a flash report based on information confirmed as of 11:00 PM (JST) on October 22, 2026. The stock prices, indices, and US Treasury yields listed are observed values during regular trading hours in the US market and are not the final closing prices for the day.
Postscript (October 23, 2026)—Final US Market Closing Prices and Credit Market Trends
The US stock market on October 22 saw continued selling of AI and semiconductor-related stocks after the opening bell, with the NASDAQ Composite Index ending the session with a wider decline than at the opening.
The final closing prices for the day are as follows:
-
NASDAQ Composite Index: 26,008.86, down 2.60% from the previous day
-
S&P 500: 7,663.43, down 1.21% from the previous day
-
Dow Jones Industrial Average: 52,867.98, up 0.02% from the previous day
The NASDAQ Composite Index recorded its largest daily percentage decline since June.
Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose slightly, indicating that the US stock market as a whole did not decline uniformly.
Meta fell about 7%, and AI infrastructure-related company CoreWeave also fell about 10%. Nebius also saw its stock price drop by about 7%, despite securing a $3.5 billion credit facility on the same day.
Selling pressure on semiconductor-related stocks also intensified, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index falling 6.7%.
Source: AP News — How major US stock indexes fared Thursday 10/22/2026
https://apnews.com/article/stocks-wall-street-nasdaq-dow-1970e79d013cbddcae89c53b4b98f384
Source: Reuters — S&P 500, Nasdaq end sharply lower as revived AI doubts ignite tech selloff
US 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls to the 4% Range
Simultaneous with the decline in the stock market, yields in the US Treasury market fell significantly.
The 10-year Treasury yield for October 22, as published by the US Department of the Treasury, was 4.96%, a decline of 17 basis points from the previous business day’s 5.13%.
This represents a further decline from the approximately 5.04% level observed during trading before the article was published.
However, one cannot conclude that borrowing costs or credit risks for AI-related companies have improved based solely on the decline in Treasury yields. Treasury bonds and corporate debt carry different risks, and it is necessary to examine the trends in credit spreads separately.
Source: US Department of the Treasury — Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates
Meta’s credit risk indicator reaches record high
According to a Reuters report on October 22, the spread on Meta’s 5-year credit default swap (CDS) reached 114.79 basis points, marking a record high.
According to Markit data, the expansion from the previous observation was 7.6 basis points, which was expected to be the largest daily increase since at least 2025.
This was an observation during trading on October 22 and should not be treated as the final closing price for that day.
CDS is an indicator related to the trading price of credit protection against default. However, its rise is influenced not only by changes in actual default probability but also by hedging demand and market liquidity.
Therefore, this rise in CDS cannot be interpreted as an indication that a financial crisis for Meta is imminent.
Nevertheless, it is an important observation indicating that even for a company with a large revenue base like Meta, the expansion of AI-related capital expenditure is being evaluated in the credit market.
Source: Reuters — Meta’s credit risk indicator hits record high on increased AI spending plan
What can be learned from the market after trading hours
With the final closing prices, it was confirmed that the decline in AI-related stocks on October 22 was not just a temporary movement immediately after the market opened.
On the other hand, US Treasury yields fell significantly, and reports indicate an increase in the cost of hedging credit risk via Meta’s CDS.
It is also a fact that Nebius’s large-scale credit facility has been established. Corporate valuation in the stock market, risk assessment in the credit market, and the actual conclusion of loan agreements must be distinguished as separate phenomena.
The market on October 22 clearly demonstrated caution regarding the financial sustainability of AI infrastructure investment. However, it cannot be concluded from this alone that the supply of investment capital will cease, or that continued investment through 2030 will become impossible.
Furthermore, regarding the ICE BofA corporate bond credit spreads, the finalized published figures for the October 22 observation have not yet been fully compiled at the time of this check. The reaction of the credit market on the day of the stock price plunge must be verified again once the statistics for that date are released.
#AIInvestment #FinancialMarket #USStocks #NASDAQ #Meta #AIInfrastructure #CreditMarket #USTreasuries #Fundraising #MarketAnalysis