[Illustration] The Impact of Soaring Crude Oil Prices on the Global Economy: Decoding Through the Japan-US Supply Chain

What you will learn in this article

• The facts behind why crude oil prices are soaring right now

• The roles played by major Japanese and US companies across the crude oil supply chain and how they are affected

• How high crude oil prices ripple through the global economy and stock markets, and what to expect in the future

Recently, every time the news reported a surge in crude oil prices, I felt that this should be understood not just as individual price movements, but as part of a larger structure. So, I delved into this topic myself and illustrated the supply chain behind it. I discovered some surprising connections in how Japanese and US companies influence each other, and I would like to share them with you all.

Today’s Topic: Why Crude Oil Prices Are in the Spotlight Now

As of October 2026, the global crude oil market is in a very tense situation. Brent crude briefly surged to the $104 per barrel range, and the US benchmark WTI crude also jumped to the $91 range.

Several factors are intertwined in the background of this. First, there is the heightened tension in the Middle East. In particular, the tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz have intensified concerns about crude oil supply routes (Source: Reference).

Furthermore, in the United States, the approach of a hurricane has raised the possibility of production facility shutdowns in the Gulf of Mexico, spreading concerns about supply shortages to the market (Source: Reference).

In addition, the agreement by OPEC+, which consists of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and major non-OPEC oil-producing nations, to maintain its November production targets has also contributed to the market’s sense of supply-demand tightness (Source: Reference). These factors combined have caused crude oil prices to soar, putting inflationary pressure and upward pressure on interest rates across the global economy.

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A Thorough Explanation of the “Crude Oil” Supply Chain

The crude oil supply chain is literally the source of energy that supports our lives. It refers to every stage from the moment crude oil is extracted from deep within the earth, through its long journey as it is transformed into gasoline, jet fuel, plastic products, and more, until it finally reaches our hands. Our economic activities rely on this massive network functioning without disruption. Fluctuations in crude oil prices affect every company along this supply chain, which then ripples out to the entire market.

Upstream: Exploration and Production

This stage is responsible for finding and extracting crude oil and natural gas lying underground or on the seabed. It is characterized by massive capital investment, advanced technology, and geopolitical risks.

🇺🇸 Representative US Companies

• ExxonMobil (XOM) — One of the largest global oil majors engaged in the exploration and production of crude oil and natural gas. While rising crude oil prices provide a direct benefit to this company’s earnings, it is also significantly affected by production costs and geopolitical risks (Source: Reference).

• Chevron (CVX) — One of the world’s leading integrated energy companies, handling everything from exploration and production to refining and sales of crude oil and natural gas through vertical integration. In a high crude oil price environment, the profitability of its upstream division draws attention (Source: oanda.jp).

🇯🇵 Representative Japanese Companies

• INPEX (1605.T) — As Japan’s largest oil and natural gas exploration and production company, it develops exploration and production projects around the world. Rising crude oil prices are a critical factor directly linked to this company’s earnings (Source: Reference).

Midstream: Transportation and Refining

At this stage, the extracted crude oil is transported via pipelines and tankers and processed at oil refineries into petroleum products such as gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, heavy oil, and asphalt.

🇺🇸 Representative US Companies

• Kinder Morgan (KMI) — One of the largest energy infrastructure companies in North America, it operates an extensive network of pipelines and terminals, handling the transport and storage of crude oil and natural gas. It plays a vital role in the stability of the energy supply chain (Source: at-ai.jp).

• Marathon Petroleum (MPC) — One of the largest independent oil refiners in the US, it possesses very high refining capacity. Fluctuations in crude oil prices and refining margins (the difference between crude oil and product prices) directly impact this company’s performance (Source: at-ai.jp).

🇯🇵 Representative Japanese Companies

• ENEOS Holdings (5020.T) — As Japan’s largest petroleum wholesaler, it handles everything from the import and refining of crude oil to sales at gas stations. Rising crude oil procurement costs have a significant impact on the pass-through to product prices and the company’s profit structure (Source: mitsudenshi.co.jp).

Downstream: Consumption and Utilization

In this final stage, refined petroleum products are used by end consumers as fuel for automobiles, jet fuel for aircraft, fuel for ships, power sources for factories, heating fuel, and as raw materials for various chemical products.

🇺🇸 Representative US Companies

• United Airlines (UAL) — As a major airline, jet fuel accounts for a large portion of operating costs. A sharp rise in jet fuel prices becomes a direct increase in costs, which significantly impacts performance (Source: at-ai.jp).

🇯🇵 Representative Japanese Companies

• Nippon Yusen (9101.T) — As a major shipping company, fluctuations in ship fuel (bunker oil) prices significantly impact transport costs and freight rates. High crude oil prices drive up operating costs and are a critical factor influencing business performance (Source: at-ai.jp).

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Reading from the Market as a Whole

The surge in crude oil prices not only affects the performance of energy-related companies but also has broad ripple effects across the entire market.

• The surge in crude oil prices is intensifying inflation concerns and reigniting speculation about additional interest rate hikes by the U.S. Federal Reserve (Source: afp.com).

• In the U.S. stock market, high crude oil prices are acting as selling pressure on tech and semiconductor stocks, contributing to declines in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indices (Source: Reference Source).

• On the other hand, companies in the energy sector tend to benefit from high crude oil prices, with their stock prices trending upward (Source: Reference Source).

• Saudi Aramco has warned that due to Middle East conflicts, global commercial oil inventories are at a “frighteningly thin” level, and it could take up to two years to rebuild them (Source: finance.biggo.jp).

From here on is my own speculation, but I feel there is a strong possibility that high crude oil prices will persist. This is because supply-side risks remain high, including uncertainty in the Middle East, the actions of OPEC+, and the production situation in the United States. If high oil prices continue, companies will face increased production costs, which will eventually be passed on to product prices, leading to further inflation. There is also a risk that consumer purchasing power will decline, leading to an economic slowdown.

In particular, for downstream companies such as airlines and shipping companies, where fuel costs are directly linked to business operations, a very difficult situation will likely continue. On the other hand, upstream energy companies that benefit from rising crude oil prices may maintain strong performance in the short term. It will be necessary to carefully watch market movements to see what kind of sector shifts this high oil price environment will trigger in the future.

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Summary

Organizing the Facts

• The background to the surge in crude oil prices includes escalating tensions in the Middle East, tanker attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, and production concerns due to U.S. hurricanes.

• OPEC+’s decision to maintain its oil production targets has further intensified the sense of supply and demand tightness.

• Brent crude has reached the $104 range, and WTI crude has reached the $91 range.

• High crude oil prices are intensifying inflation concerns and reigniting speculation about additional interest rate hikes by the Fed.

• In the stock market, while energy-related stocks are rising, selling pressure is being applied to tech and semiconductor stocks.

My Perspective

• I feel it is highly likely that the current high crude oil prices are not just temporary, but also involve geopolitical risks and structural problems in the supply system.

• If this situation continues, inflationary pressure will persist across the global economy, and it will continue to influence the monetary policies of central banks in various countries.

• Since the impact will manifest as increased costs for companies and rising living expenses for consumers, the effect on the economy cannot be ignored.

• The market needs to continue paying close attention to trends in crude oil prices and the resulting movement of capital between sectors.