Interest rates and crude oil fall, stocks rebound. Yet, the stocks being bought are different – US Market Analysis for September 25, 2026
Author: Former HF Lou
Joined Amundi in 1999. Engaged in pension asset management using quantitative strategies and market-neutral operations. From 2005 to 2012, worked at Asuka Asset Management, a pioneer of Japanese hedge funds with roots in Tudor Investment, where I was responsible for engagement investing aimed at increasing corporate value through dialogue, and event-driven strategies focusing on corporate restructuring. Since then, I have been active as an individual investor, which brings me to the present.
Interest rates fell, and crude oil also dropped. US stocks rebounded on September 25, but looking only at the percentage gains misses something. META, which was bought the previous day, was sold off, while Microsoft rose significantly this time. Even within the same AI-related sector, the direction of buying was quite different.
Crude oil fell to the $92 range. Since it had rebounded from below $90 earlier this week, this decline is concerning. If the worry that high oil prices are eroding corporate profits eases, the benefits will not be limited to tech stocks. In fact, buying also entered the airline, home construction, and capital goods sectors.
On the other hand, despite the drop in interest rates, the price movement of corporate bonds remains sluggish. How should we interpret this difference on a day when stock prices recovered? I would also like to review the credit spreads mentioned yesterday in light of the newly released figures.
The rise in Microsoft, the decline in software stocks, the rebound of SNDK, and the drop in crude oil. As we wrap up this week, it was a day that made me feel the need to separate the perspective of looking at the market as a whole from the perspective of looking at individual holdings.
Recommended reading by time
For 3 minutes, read the “3-minute summary” and “1. Market Judgment.” For 5-7 minutes, read up to the sections on interest rates/crude oil, credit spreads, and Microsoft. Individual stocks and portfolio status are summarized in the second half.