Is Walmart Stock Increasing Your Market Risk?
Investors often hold Walmart (WMT) stock alongside funds that already track the S&P 500. Walmart is a retailer of groceries and everyday essentials worth about $886 billion. A stock that moves in lockstep with the broader index simply compounds existing bets, while one that charts its own course helps spread risk. So what does Walmart stock do on the market’s good days and bad days?
Walmart Stock Has Gone Its Own Way
Over the past year, Walmart shares have not compounded broader market risk. Consider a $10,000 position in Walmart stock. On an average day when the S&P 500 rose over the past year, the index gained 0.65% while the retail shares ended the day about $1 lower. Conversely, on an average day when the index fell, the index dropped 0.6% and the shares finished about $10 higher. Distilled to a single metric, Walmart stock moved about 0.04% in the opposite direction for each 1% the index moved. That translates to almost no link at all.
This lack of correlation does not mean the investment is calm. Over the past year, its volatility, defined as the size of its typical swings, was 27%, against 13.0% for the S&P 500. Walmart swung about twice as widely as the benchmark index, yet it did not move in step with it. Holding the stock introduces risk, but it remains a separate one from the risk embedded in index funds.
Can Walmart’s Steady Sales Prolong This Pattern?
The underlying business suggests this pattern will persist, with the stock trading on company-specific developments rather than broader market sentiment. Over the past year, Walmart’s correlation with the index, a measure of how often the two move together, was -0.02. That means the two barely move together.
Operations remain steady. Revenue grew between 5.6% and 7.3% from a year earlier in each of the past four quarters. During the company’s August 20, 2026 earnings call, management raised its forecast for sales growth in the current fiscal year, measured in constant currency. Executives now expect a range of 4% to 5%, up from prior estimates of 3.5% to 4.5%.
Investors pay a high price for that stability. Walmart stock is priced at 40.1 times earnings, against the 21.9 multiple for the S&P 500. On that same call, management acknowledged that lapping 19% growth in earnings per share will be a challenge next year. Given its current valuation, a disappointing quarter could trigger sharp price movements regardless of how the broader market performs. Consequently, wide swings of its own are likely to continue.
Did Walmart Stock Beat The Market For Its Risk?
Over the past five years, the stock has rewarded that risk. Walmart returned 20.4% a year over that window, dividends included, against the 13.7% return for the S&P 500. Its yearly volatility over those same five years was 22.6%, compared to 17.0% for the index. By dividing each return by its volatility, you can see how much return every unit of swing has earned: 0.9 for Walmart and 0.81 for the index. This means the swings of Walmart shares have paid a little better than the market over the past five years.
If the pattern from the past year holds, the market’s next up day will add little to Walmart shares, and the next down day will take little away. Instead, the company provides a different bet: a single retailer of groceries and everyday essentials, priced well above the market on earnings. However, for portfolios already heavy with highly priced retail or consumer staples stocks, holding Walmart simply magnifies that specific concentration. Going forward, investors should watch the upcoming third-quarter report. Management has already guided third-quarter sales growth to 3% to 3.75% in constant currency, below the recent pace. Results short of that range, or a cut to the full-year sales forecast, would be the first sign that the steady business behind this distinct market pattern is changing.
How To Act On WMT?
Now you know WMT better. And that’s our purpose: to make you informed before you invest your money. However, making a bet on a single stock carries its own risks.
There is a smarter choice. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has beaten the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking.
If you’d rather act on WMT itself: