[Market Research] Nasdaq Breaks 30,000 pts & Nikkei 225 Continues Rally to 66,000 Yen! Weekly Market Review: Tech Stocks Surge Despite 5.23% US Interest Rates & SOX Jumps +6.2% …

1. Weekly Highlights (September 21 – September 25, 2026)

In this week’s global markets, despite a high-interest-rate environment where the US 10-year Treasury yield surged to its highest level in about 19 years (briefly hitting 5.23%), a powerful tech-led rally supported by robust AI infrastructure investment and actual semiconductor demand drove the market.

• Japanese Stocks (Nikkei 225): Although it was effectively only two trading days (Thursday and Friday) after the Silver Week holiday (market closed Monday-Wednesday), the index saw a significant weekly gain of +1,345.25 yen (+2.07%), closing at 66,364.20 yen and achieving a 5-day winning streak. The yen’s depreciation in the currency market (briefly reaching the 158 yen range) raised expectations for improved export profitability, strongly driving major stocks like Toyota Motor and semiconductor-related stocks like Tokyo Electron.

• TOPIX: The weekend closing price was 4,128.59 pts (+0.92% for the week), continuing a steady rise. With the final day for September-end dividend rights approaching the following week, buying interest focused on dividends and shareholder perks flowed into value stocks such as mega-banks and general trading companies, with most of the 33 industry sectors rising.

• US Market (Nasdaq 100 & SOX Surge): While the US 10-year Treasury yield rose to 5.23%, capping gains for small-cap stocks (Russell 2000: -0.80%) and the NY Dow (+0.28%), the Nasdaq 100 rose +3.25% for the week (30,608.13 pts), breaking the historic 30,000-point threshold to reach an all-time high. Furthermore, the SOX Semiconductor Index recorded a phenomenal weekly jump of +6.27% (12,668.93 pts).

• Currency (USD/JPY): After the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike, the real interest rate differential between Japan and the US was reassessed, and the yen weakened to 158.81 yen mid-week. By the weekend, it closed at the 157.28 yen level due to caution regarding intervention and position adjustments.

2. Performance of Major Stock Indices (*As of September 25, 2026 closing prices)

■ Nikkei 225 – Weekend closing price: 66,364.20 yen – Weekly change: +2.07% (+1,345.25 yen) – Points: Significant gains in just two trading days after the Silver Week holiday, marking a 5-day winning streak. Driven by export majors and semiconductor stocks amid a weakening yen, the market shows strong sentiment with an eye on the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo chart’s bullish signal.

■ TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index) – Weekend closing price: 4,128.59 pts – Weekly change: +0.92% (+37.45 pts) – Points: Financials, autos, and trading companies were widely bought against the backdrop of buying for September-end dividend rights, leading to stable performance consolidating in the 4,100-pt range.

■ S&P 500 – Weekend closing price: 7,743.41 pts – Weekly change: +1.21% (+92.91 pts) – Points: After consolidating mid-week due to a sharp rise in interest rates, the index rebounded at the end of the week as buying interest in major tech stocks strengthened, reclaiming the 7,700-pt range.

■ Nasdaq 100 – Weekend closing price: 30,608.13 pts – Weekly change: +3.25% (+963.96 pts) – Points: Defying the headwind of US long-term interest rates in the 5.2% range, capital concentrated in AI semiconductors and mega-caps like Nvidia and Broadcom. It confidently broke the 30,000-pt threshold to reach an all-time high.

■ NY Dow – Weekend closing price: $51,828.62 – Weekly change: +0.28% (+$145.98) – Points: Despite early selling due to interest rate hikes and concerns over economic slowdown, the index surged $478 on Friday, securing its first weekly gain in four weeks.

■ Russell 2000 (US Small-Cap Stocks) ・Weekend Close: 2,837.55 pt ・Weekly Change: ▲0.80%(▲22.85pt) ・Key Point: Relatively soft performance as the US 10-year Treasury yield settling in the 5.2% range raised concerns over refinancing costs and interest payment burdens.

■ MSCI ACWI (Global Stocks) ・Weekend Close: $161.05 ・Weekly Change: +1.10%(+$1.76) ・Key Point: While high interest rates weighed on parts of Europe and emerging markets, strong gains in US tech and Japanese stocks drove the overall index.

3. Featured Sectors & Commodities

■ SOX (Philadelphia Semiconductor Index): 12,668.93 pt (Weekly +6.27% / +747.24pt) Completely breaking through the 12,000 pt milestone, the index recorded a fierce weekly surge of over +6%. In addition to expanding demand for generative AI data centers, expectations for a resumption of capital investment in memory and advanced foundries spread, concentrating real demand buying across the entire semiconductor value chain.

■ COMEX Gold Futures: $4,320.50/oz (Weekly ▲2.16% / ▲$95.40) As the US 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 5.23% and the dollar strengthened, selling for position adjustment took precedence for non-interest-bearing gold. Although it fell back from the $4,415 level seen the previous weekend, it maintained the $4,300 level, supported by medium- to long-term hedging against geopolitical risks and expanding federal debt.

4. Macro Environment, Forex, and Interest Rate Trends

■ USD/JPY: 157.28 level (Approx. +0.40 yen dollar appreciation/yen depreciation vs. previous weekend) Even after the Bank of Japan’s additional rate hike (policy rate 1.25%), the real interest rate differential between Japan and the US remained in focus, with the yen weakening to 158.81 mid-week. Although it was pushed back to the low 157 range by the weekend due to intervention caution and quarter-end position adjustments, the underlying trend of a stronger dollar and weaker yen continues.

■ US 10-Year Treasury Yield: 5.184% (Sharp rise from 4.998% the previous weekend, weekly high of 5.230%) Following weak demand in US Treasury auctions and economic indicators that showed greater-than-expected resilience, expectations for the Fed to keep rates higher for longer intensified, briefly hitting 5.23%, the highest level in about 19 years since June 2007.

5. Upcoming Market Events & Economic Indicators (Week of September 28, 2026)

Next week marks a critical juncture as we face end-of-quarter rebalancing, dividend ex-rights, and a concentration of major macro indicators from Japan and the US at the start of the month.

1. Japan: Sept 28 (Mon) Publication of “Summary of Opinions” from the September BOJ Monetary Policy Meeting

2. Japan: Final day with dividend rights for end of September (Sept 28) and ex-rights date (Sept 29)

3. Japan: Oct 1 (Thu) BOJ Tankan (September Survey – Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises)

4. US: Thursday, October 1 – September ISM Manufacturing Index

5. US: Friday, October 2 – September US Employment Report (Non-farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate, Average Hourly Earnings)

6. Europe: Wednesday, September 30 – Eurozone September HICP (Flash Consumer Price Index)

6. Summary & Research Perspective

In the 4th week of September 2026, despite the intense headwind of the US 10-year Treasury yield surging to a 19-year high of 5.2%, the Nasdaq 100 broke through the 30,000-point threshold (hitting an all-time high), the SOX index jumped 6.27%, and the Nikkei 225 continued its rally to the 66,000-yen level.

The real-demand momentum for AI and advanced semiconductors, which completely overwhelmed the rise in interest rates, and the earning power of Japanese companies supported by the weak yen trend were proven once again.

Next week, in addition to digesting supply and demand after the end-of-September dividend ex-rights date, the Bank of Japan Tankan survey on October 1 and the US employment report on October 2 will be factors for market volatility. We will continue with a selective investment stance, identifying the polarization between small and mid-cap stocks that are susceptible to high interest rates and AI, advanced semiconductors, and high-performing large-cap stocks backed by real demand!

🔗 Reference Links

Nikkei Market: https://www.nikkei.com/markets/

Bloomberg Japan: https://www.bloomberg.co.jp/

⚠️ Disclaimer

*This article is intended for information purposes and the analysis/introduction of market trends; it does not constitute investment solicitation or advice for the purchase or sale of specific securities. Please make final investment decisions based on your own judgment and responsibility.

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