Nasdaq down 1.37%! What will happen to Japanese semiconductor stocks? Three key points regarding the BOJ meeting and earnings
[October 30 Morning Edition]
Good morning! 🍀
This is AI Stock Notes.
“Japanese stocks rose significantly yesterday, but US tech stocks are falling…”
Are you worried about today’s Japanese stocks after seeing news like that?
The Nikkei Stock Average rose 705.28 yen on Thursday, October 29.
However, in the subsequent US market, the Nasdaq Composite Index fell by 1.37%.
Furthermore, today, Friday, October 30, the results of the Bank of Japan’s Monetary Policy Meeting are scheduled to be announced, and semiconductor-related corporate earnings are also pending.
On days like this, rather than rushing to predict whether stock prices will rise or fall, it is important to organize what you need to check.
Today, I will explain three points to check for beginners.
■ Japanese stocks rose yesterday
First, let’s look back at the Japanese market on October 29.
[Nikkei Average]
64,659.47 yen
+705.28 yen from the previous day (+1.10%)
[TOPIX]
4,003.28 points
+11.57 points from the previous day (+0.29%)
Both rose, but there was a difference in the rate of increase.
It was reported that the rise in semiconductor-related stocks such as Advantest pushed up the Nikkei Average yesterday.
However, just because the Nikkei Average rose does not mean that all stocks increased in value in the same way.
As mentioned in previous morning editions, I would like to check the movements of the index and individual stocks separately.
■ Meanwhile, tech stocks fell in the US
In the US stock market on October 29, the three major indices fell.
NY Dow: $52,342.56 (-0.25%)
S&P 500: 7,720.39 (-0.30%)
Nasdaq Composite: 26,184.72 (-1.37%)
The Nasdaq Composite index, which has a high weighting of tech stocks, saw a particularly large decline.
According to Reuters, Alphabet’s (Google’s parent company) earnings falling short of market expectations and concerns over whether massive AI investments will lead to sufficient returns weighed on tech stocks.
Alphabet shares were reported to have fallen by 12.6%.
What is important here is not to jump to the conclusion that “the future of AI-related companies is gone.”
The market is evaluating not only whether demand for AI is strong, but also when and to what extent those investments will generate profits.
■ Do Japanese stocks fall when US stocks fall?
That is not necessarily the case.
The movement of US semiconductor-related stocks serves as a reference when looking at Japanese semiconductor-related companies.
However, the stock prices of Japanese companies are also influenced by their individual earnings, orders, performance forecasts, and exchange rates.
For example, even on a day when US tech stocks fall, if a Japanese company announces performance forecasts that exceed market expectations, its stock price could potentially rise.
Conversely, even if strong earnings are announced, the stock price may fall if prior expectations were too high.
In other words, you cannot simply apply the price movements of US stocks directly to Japanese stocks.
■ Today’s Focus (1): Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting
The Bank of Japan is holding a Monetary Policy Meeting from Thursday, October 29 to Friday, October 30.
The decision regarding monetary policy is scheduled to be announced after the meeting concludes today.
Additionally, a regular press conference by the Governor is scheduled for 3:30 PM.
What we want to check here is not just whether there will be a change in the policy interest rate.
It is also important to see what kind of outlook the BOJ provides regarding future prices and the economy.
Furthermore, the reaction of stock prices and exchange rates may change depending on how the announcement compares to the market’s prior expectations.
As of this morning, the results of this policy decision have not yet been confirmed.
Let’s distinguish between pre-announcement expectations and the actual content announced.
■ Today’s Focus ② Movement of semiconductor-related stocks
Semiconductor-related stocks that pushed up the Nikkei Stock Average yesterday are not necessarily guaranteed to be strong today.
In the US market, concerns regarding the profitability of AI-related investments were reported.
In today’s Japanese market, we want to see how semiconductor-related stocks move compared to other sectors.
Comparing the percentage changes of the Nikkei Stock Average and TOPIX can also provide hints for understanding market characteristics.
However, we cannot conclude that Japanese semiconductor stocks will fall solely because of the decline in US stocks.
■ Today’s Focus ③ Corporate earnings
Today, October 30th, is also a day to pay attention to corporate earnings.
The scheduled announcements confirmed via official IR include the following companies:
・Tokyo Electron (8035)
・Mitsubishi Electric (6503)
Tokyo Electron is a company that handles semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
In today’s earnings report, we want to pay attention to the future business environment and full-year earnings forecasts, in addition to sales and profits.
However, we cannot simply assume that stock prices will rise because earnings are good, or fall because they are bad.
The difference between the announced figures and market expectations can be important when considering stock price reactions.
■ Specific example: Stock price falls even though profits increased?
※The following is a hypothetical example for explanation purposes.
Company A announced that its profits increased compared to the previous year.
However, the market was expecting even higher profit growth.
In this case, even if the performance itself has improved, the stock price may fall because it did not meet expectations.
Conversely, Company B’s stock price may rise even if its profits are lower than the previous year, because the results were not as bad as the market had anticipated.
Stock prices move by reflecting not only a company’s past performance but also expectations for the future.
■ Three points to check today
When looking at today’s news, let’s check the following three points.
① BOJ policy decision and economic outlook
Focus not only on changes to the policy interest rate, but also on the future outlook and any discrepancies with market expectations.
② Reaction of Japanese semiconductor-related stocks
Check whether they are affected by the decline in US stocks or if they move differently due to company-specific factors.
③ Corporate earnings and full-year performance forecasts
Check sales, profits, and future outlooks, and consider the differences from market expectations.
■ Today’s lesson
There is one thing to remember today.
It is not necessarily true that “because overseas stock prices fell, Japanese stocks will also fall.”
The stock market is influenced by multiple factors, including interest rates, exchange rates, corporate performance, and market expectations.
It is important not to draw conclusions from a single piece of news, but to verify the actual market reaction.
■ What’s in tonight’s evening edition?
In tonight’s AI Stock Note 🍀 Evening Edition, we will review the BOJ’s monetary policy announcement, today’s Japanese stock price movements, and corporate earnings.
We plan to verify what actually happened regarding the three points covered in the morning edition and organize them in an easy-to-understand way for beginners.
As related articles, reading my previous posts on “Why your stocks fall even when the Nikkei rises” and “Why stock prices fall even on good earnings” will help deepen your understanding.
If you are new to AI Stock Notes, please be sure to check out the self-introduction article pinned to my profile.
If you found today’s article helpful, I would appreciate it if you could support me with a like.
If you would like to learn about Japanese stocks together, please follow me🍀
Let’s keep learning together today!
※This article is an investment study piece based on public information confirmed by approximately 6:00 AM on October 30, 2026. It does not recommend buying or selling any specific stocks. Market data reflects the closing prices on the dates mentioned in the text.