[NAV Forecast] WCM Next & World's Best: US stocks continue slight decline amid rising interest rates and anticipation of economic indicators; WCM Next secures gains due to …
Good morning, this is TOMMY_JUNE.
In today’s US market, major stock indices saw a slight continued decline as a wait-and-see attitude intensified ahead of the rise in US long-term interest rates and key economic indicators to be released this week, such as the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index and employment statistics. In the US bond market, long-term yields briefly reached their highest levels since the 2000s, and the outlook for higher interest rates is weighing on the stock market. Major indices, including the Japanese market (Nikkei 225 -0.60%, TOPIX -1.72%, Dow -0.26%, Nasdaq -0.09%), generally showed a soft tone. The NAV forecasts for both funds also show mixed results due to individual factors of the constituent stocks.
1. Summary of NAV Forecast (Announced 9/30)
These are estimated values based on the confirmed performance of overseas markets. While the currency factor (USD/JPY 157.32) remained a slight negative (-0.14%), the stock price factors of the holdings in each fund (WCM Next +0.39%, World’s Best -0.30%) directly determined the mixed results of the forecast prices.
2. Stock Contribution Analysis (Stock Price Factor)
On a local stock price basis, the overall trend is heavy on the upside.
■ WCM Next Generation
Top constituent SIEMENS ENERGY AG (+3.51%) and Teva Pharmaceutical (+2.39%) drove the performance significantly, and the subtotal contribution of the top 10 stocks secured a positive (+0.37%). Even while the overall market was soft, individual factors of the core stocks provided support, causing the stock price factor to turn positive.
■ World’s Best
Although top constituents 3I GROUP (+0.65%) and TEXAS INSTRUMENTS (+1.21%) held their ground in positive territory, many stocks fell, dragged down by the poor overall market sentiment. As a result, the stock price factor for the entire portfolio was negative (-0.30%), and the subtotal for the top 10 remained a slight increase of only +0.04%.
3. Deep Dive: Factors Behind Notable Stock Movements
Here is an explanation of the recent background for stocks that showed particular movement in last night’s market.
4. Today’s Summary: Investment Perspective
Today was a day heavily influenced by caution regarding rising US interest rates and a wave of ‘wait-and-see and position adjustment’ ahead of the announcement of key indicators.
WCM Next secured a gain driven by stock price factors, as its top major holdings held firm against the backdrop of positive individual news. On the other hand, for World’s Best, although some stocks attempted to support the downside, it was not enough to overcome the overall downward pressure, leading to a difficult result.
This week, there are extremely important economic indicators ahead that will influence the path of the Fed’s future interest rate policy, such as the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) price index to be announced on the 30th and the employment report on October 2nd. While the probability of a rate hike is fluctuating due to remarks by New York Fed President Williams and others, market sentiment could change completely depending on the results of these indicators. Therefore, it is necessary to watch the trends while remaining fully vigilant regarding interest rate movements and short-term volatility throughout the week.
TOMMY_JUNE
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