No Rate Hike at October FOMC Due to Slowing Employment? US Stock Market Flash Report: Tesla's Strong Earnings and AI Stocks Lead Rebound

[Flash Report] Expectations for a rate hike pause surge following weaker-than-expected jobs report! Stock prices rebound as NVDA hits a new high and Tesla beats estimates
Interest rates and stock prices fluctuate on soft jobs data! Memory stocks plunge on reports of Toshiba production increases, but AI demand resilience remains clear

1. Market Overview and Major Stock Indices

• Movements after the jobs report: Expectations for a rate hike pause rose following a weaker-than-expected jobs report, causing Treasury yields to fall temporarily and stock prices to rise. Although the 10-year Treasury yield subsequently turned upward, the stock market maintained its resilience.

• Closing prices of major indices:

  • NY Dow: +0.49% (51,176.96)

  • S&P 500: +0.73% (7,722.72)

  • Nasdaq: +1.19% (27,190.86)

  • Russell 2000: +0.94% (2,832.89)

• Commodities, Forex, and Crypto Assets:

  • Crude Oil: -1.5% ($91.48 per barrel)

  • Gold: -0.73% ($4,171.40)

  • USD/JPY: -0.14% (around 157.86 yen) *Briefly dipped into the 156 yen range before being pushed back up by dollar strength.

  • Bitcoin: $84,364

  • Ethereum: $266.27

• Interest Rates: The 10-year Treasury yield is at 5.280% and the 2-year Treasury yield is at 4.83%, showing an overall upward trend again.

• Chart Observations: On a weekly basis, it shows a bullish candle with a long lower wick, confirming resilience from the lows despite the challenging macro environment.

2. Trends in Notable Stocks and Sectors

• Large-cap tech stocks: Apple, NVIDIA, Google, and Amazon rose by over 1%.

• Tesla (+4.6%): Q3 vehicle deliveries reached 485,632, significantly beating market expectations (461,100) and leading to a sharp rise.

• Semiconductors (memory-related):

  • Following reports of Toshiba doubling its HDD production capacity (a 60 billion yen investment), Seagate (-10%), Western Digital (-10%), SanDisk (-3.8%), and Micron (-2%) were sold off due to concerns over oversupply.

  • However, even with Toshiba’s production increase, supply remains overwhelmingly insufficient to meet the data explosion driven by AI demand (projected to be 4 times higher in 2030 than in 2024), so the decline in pricing power is limited, and there are signs of buying back from the lows.

• Other sectors:

  • In software, ServiceNow and ADP fell (-2%).

  • Security (CrowdStrike, Palo Alto) and manufacturing equipment/network-related stocks remained firm.

3. Details of September Employment Statistics and Rate Hike Outlook

• Non-farm payrolls: Against an expectation of 95,000, the result was 29,000 (the previous figure was also revised downward from 162,000 to 133,000).

• Unemployment rate: Rose to 4.2% result against a 4.1% forecast.

• Average hourly earnings: 0.1% month-over-month (forecast 0.3%), 3.0% year-over-year (forecast 3.2%).

• Market interpretation:

  • All indicators show a slowdown in the labor market, and companies are cautious about expanding headcount (layoffs remain at low levels).

  • As a result, the probability of the FOMC skipping a rate hike (maintaining the status quo) in October has risen to 77.3%.

  • While employment is decreasing in AI-sensitive sectors like information and finance, it is increasing in construction, manufacturing, healthcare, and entertainment.

  • Even with a tightening labor market, it is difficult to directly stop current inflationary factors, and the Fed (including Chicago Fed President Goolsbee) is showing a stance of carefully assessing economic data.

4. Middle East situation and oil market

• Supply-side developments: Saudi Arabia has increased pipeline transport volumes and returned shipment levels to those comparable to 2024, so concerns about a physical oil shortage are low.

• Geopolitical risk: There is news that Saudi Arabia is planning to support airstrikes and attacks against the Houthis with the goal of regaining control of the Red Sea, so future developments require attention.

#USDJPY#Ethereum#Deliveries#StocksToWatch#Bitcoin#CryptoAssets#Forex#Tesla#USStocks#EmploymentStatistics