[November 11] Today's Stock Market Report: Nikkei 225 rises 789 yen for 3rd consecutive day, surging 3,813 yen in 3 days to fully recover from the 'historic crash of November 6'

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The ‘CoreWeave strong earnings & upward revision of US AI company IPO price range’ overcame the US CPI upside surprise and 0.5% rate hike comments, while tire stocks fell due to Resonac’s electrode business sale and lower crude oil prices. No blind spots in the AI bubble.

• Nikkei Stock Average Closing Price : 61,248.59 yen (+789.01 (+1.31%))

• TOPIX : 3929.39 points (+35.68 (+0.92%))

• Trading Value (TSE Prime) : 8.696813 trillion yen

• Number of advancing stocks: 836 / Number of declining stocks: 668 / Unchanged stocks: 47

• External market environment: All three major US indices fell, US CPI exceeded expectations, US market interest rates rose, and US stocks fell due to Governor Waller’s mention of a 0.5% rate hike, but AI sentiment was reassured by CoreWeave’s earnings.

• Notes: Ibiden, TDK, Lasertec, and Kyocera rose. On the other hand, Fast Retailing, Recruit, Konami Group, and BayCurrent fell.

1. Market Close: A fierce counterattack of over 3,800 yen in 3 days! Achieved a full recovery, completely erasing the ‘3,643 yen crash’ of November 6 in just 3 trading days.

The Tokyo stock market on Wednesday, November 11, 2026, followed the trend of the previous day’s US market, where all three major indices fell due to higher-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) and hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve (FRB) officials, and started with some selling pressure immediately after the opening. However, after the initial selling in the morning, strong dip-buying flowed in, pushing the market into positive territory. In the middle of the morning session, it broke through the psychological milestone of 61,000 yen, and during trading hours, the gains temporarily exceeded 900 yen as buying dominated. It maintained a firm trend at high levels into the afternoon session and ended the day with a significant 3-day consecutive rise.

The Nikkei Stock Average closed at 61,248.59 yen, up 789.01 yen (plus: 1.31%) from the previous business day, marking a significant consecutive rise for the third business day.

A noteworthy historic milestone is the complete recovery from the third-largest crash in history recorded last Friday, November 6 (-3,643.13 yen, closing at 57,434.77 yen). The total gain over the three trading days of Monday (+1,340.73 yen), Tuesday (+1,684.08 yen), and today, Wednesday (+789.01 yen), reached ‘3,813.82 yen (over 3,800 yen)’, achieving a ‘full recovery’ that completely recouped the sharp drop of November 6, which was hit by panic selling, in just 3 days.

Meanwhile, the TOPIX (Tokyo Stock Price Index), which consists of a wide range of stocks on the TSE Prime Market, also rose strongly in step with the Nikkei Average. The closing price was 3929.39 points, up 35.68 points (plus: 0.92%) from the previous business day, also marking a 3-day consecutive rise. TOPIX also showed amazing resilience, almost completely erasing the historic sharp drop from last Friday (-232.40 points) over the course of 3 trading days.

The trading value on the TSE Prime Market was 8.696813 trillion yen (estimated trading volume of 2.71951 billion shares), recording active trading in the high 8 trillion yen range for consecutive days.

The background to today’s market rising so strongly, overcoming the headwind of lower US stocks, was ‘two decisive positive factors’ surrounding the AI and semiconductor sectors.

First, it was reported during trading hours that ‘the tentative price range for the public offering of AI-related companies awaiting new listing (IPO) in the US may be raised’. SoftBank Group, which had been sold off heavily in the morning after posting a loss in its earnings the previous day, rebounded sharply on expectations of increased investment value in competing AI companies, dramatically improving the sentiment for AI-related stocks as a whole.

Second, the US neo-cloud giant CoreWeave, which was the epicenter of the ‘AI shock (credit anxiety due to sharp drop in corporate bonds)’ since mid-October, announced its earnings the previous day, and it was revealed that, like SpaceX, ‘actual business earnings are not bad (it is generating revenue steadily)’. This dispelled the excessive credit anxiety regarding AI cloud that had been haunting the market for nearly a month, and confident buying spread to major semiconductor stocks such as Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Ibiden. Also, rising US market interest rates led to buying in bank and securities stocks, and after the close, Resonac Holdings announced a bold structural reform of selling its traditional graphite electrode business, making it a day of active selective buying ahead of the peak of mega-bank earnings on the 13th.

2. Mechanism of market continuation and full recovery: ‘CoreWeave earnings’ and ‘AI company IPO price range hike’ that canceled out the US CPI shock (0.5% rate hike outlook)

In the US stock market the previous night, all three major indices, including the NY Dow, had fallen due to the upside surprise in inflation indicators. Nevertheless, I will explain the market mechanism of why the Tokyo stock market today was able to rebound immediately from the small decline right after the opening, rise by over 900 yen at one point, and fill all the losses from the November 6 crash.

1. Why the market didn’t collapse despite dovish Governor Waller’s ‘0.5% rate hike’ remarks

The US market the previous day (the 10th) was exposed to extremely severe headwinds on the macro front. With the closely watched US October Consumer Price Index (CPI) showing growth that exceeded market consensus, the inflationary caution that had been subsiding was reignited.

What surprised the market even more were the successive hawkish remarks from regional Fed presidents and Fed governors. In particular, Christopher Waller, who had been known as a representative ‘dove’ (pro-monetary easing and rate cuts) within the Fed, mentioned, ‘Looking at these inflation figures, we may need to make the rate hike a bit larger. A normal 0.25% hike might not be enough, and we might need to implement a 0.50% hike all at once.’.

Following the unexpected mention of a ‘0.5% significant rate hike’ by a key dove, market interest rates (long-term yields) in the US bond market surged, and the three major US indices, including the NY Dow, all fell. The reason the Nikkei Average started slightly lower immediately after the opening today was because it straightforwardly priced in this rise in US interest rates and the decline in US stocks.

2. ‘CoreWeave’s Earning Power’ and ‘IPO Preliminary Terms Hike’ break the spell from mid-October

In a normal market, a higher-than-expected US CPI and speculation of a 0.5% rate hike would be fatal selling factors for high-tech stocks. However, today’s Tokyo market was buoyed by ‘two powerful tailwinds from within the AI industry’.

The first tailwind was the ‘speculation of an upward revision to the preliminary terms for AI-related companies awaiting new listings (IPO) in the US’ that was reported during the session.

The news that IPO valuations would be raised against the backdrop of strong demand from institutional investors showed that investors’ appetite for both unlisted and listed AI companies has not waned at all. SoftBank Group, which had been heavily sold off from the opening today after announcing its earnings after the close yesterday (the 10th) and reporting a significant loss, staged a dramatic reversal, cutting back its losses from the morning’s sharp decline as the view emerged that ‘the valuation of the entire AI portfolio it holds will rise’ because the company has invested in competitors of these IPO companies.

The second, and structurally more important, tailwind was the earnings announcement of the US AI cloud (neo-cloud) company ‘CoreWeave’.

Looking back, the initial trigger for the Nikkei Average’s 3,318-yen plunge on October 15 was the sharp drop in CoreWeave’s corporate bond prices, which led to the emergence of credit concerns that ‘they are buying up Nvidia GPUs with massive debt to build data centers, but the investment is unreasonable and their cash flow might collapse.’

However, when we scrutinized the actual earnings content announced by CoreWeave yesterday, it became clear, just like with SpaceX, which was recently found to be profitable in its data center business, that ‘the earnings (revenue/cash flow) from the actual data center leasing business are not that bad; in fact, they are earning steadily.’

With the earnings of the epicenter itself confirming that the credit concerns were unfounded, the excessive discount on AI and semiconductor-related stocks was corrected all at once, and the Nikkei Average climbed powerfully past 61,000 yen from the middle of the morning session.

3. Market Internal Structure: The ‘3,643-yen crash’ of November 6 completely erased in 3 days (+3,813 yen)! Victory over specific panic selling

With today’s rise, the Tokyo stock market has broken through a crucial watershed in terms of charts and investor sentiment.

The trajectory of the ‘3-day, full recovery’ from the historic crash of November 6 (-3,643 yen)

・November 6 (Fri): -3,643.13 yen from previous day (Closing price 57,434.77 yen) *3rd largest crash in history, 98% of Prime stocks fell

・November 9 (Mon): +1,340.73 yen from previous day (Closing price 58,775.50 yen) *Day 1: Autonomous rebound begins
・November 10 (Tue): +1,684.08 yen from previous day (Closing price 60,459.58 yen) *Day 2: Reclaimed the 60,000 yen level
・November 11 (Wed): +789.01 yen from previous day (Closing price 61,248.59 yen) *Day 3: Surpassed pre-crash level (61,077 yen)!

Total 3-day rise: [+3,813.82 yen] (A complete recovery, 170 yen above the November 5 closing price of 61,077.90 yen!)

I will summarize the significance of this ‘complete recovery from the sharp drop in 3 days’ as follows.

The 3,643-yen drop last Friday (November 6) was likely caused by a specific large investor moving to rapidly pull funds out of AI-related stocks, which caused the entire Asian market to be dragged into a panic. However, when the week started, no other investors followed that selling to dump their holdings further. Instead, through events like CoreWeave’s earnings, a calm view spread that ‘the business environment for AI will not be that bad,’ and both the Nikkei Average and TOPIX ended up recovering all of Friday’s sharp drop in just three days.

Nikkei Average contribution: The ‘main culprit’ during the crash becomes the ‘protagonist of the recovery’

The top of today’s Nikkei Average positive contribution ranking was lined with core AI and semiconductor stocks such as Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Ibiden. These were the very stocks that had been fiercely sold off during the sharp decline until last week, and the buybacks, which re-evaluated their earnings and the resilience of AI demand, drove the entire index.

On the other hand, the negative contributors included stocks that were used as a ‘source of funds’ to buy AI stocks again, as well as companies like Honda, whose upward revision of earnings fell short of market expectations, indicating that severe selection between stocks continues.

4. Sector and Industry Trends: ‘Textiles’ led by Toray takes the top spot, ‘Banks/Securities’ surge on higher US interest rates! The paradox of ‘Rubber (Tire) decline’ caused by lower crude oil prices

Looking at the stock price indices by industry, today presented an extremely interesting contrast: while ‘AI/semiconductor supply chains,’ ‘financials benefiting from rising US interest rates,’ and ‘sectors driven by strong individual earnings’ were clearly bought, sectors that were unexpectedly hit by the ‘decline in crude oil prices’ fell.

[Rising Sector 1: Electric Appliances, Non-ferrous Metals, Glass/Ceramics, Chemicals (Expansion of the AI component base)]

With the return of confidence in AI-related stocks, the targets for buying in the high-tech and materials sectors have expanded further.

• Electric Appliances: In addition to semiconductor manufacturing equipment makers such as Tokyo Electron and Advantest, electronic component manufacturers such as those making multilayer ceramic capacitors (MLCC) rose in unison.

• Non-ferrous Metals: In addition to data center-related wire stocks such as Fujikura and Furukawa Electric, there were also notable gains today in JX Metals-related stocks (ENEOS subsidiary, major non-ferrous metal company), which develops sputtering targets for semiconductors.

• Glass and Ceramics: In addition to regular stocks like Nitto Boseki, which makes special glass for AI servers, and MARUWA, which makes ceramic substrates, major comprehensive glass manufacturer AGC was also significantly pushed up today.

• Textile Products (Top by Industry): The high evaluation of Toray, which announced strong earnings at 1:00 PM yesterday, continued today, and the textile products sector took the top spot in growth among all 33 industries due to the strong push from Toray alone.

[Rising Sector 2: Banking & Securities (US market interest rate hikes act as a tailwind)]

Along with high-tech stocks, Banking and Securities and Commodity Futures Trading showed strong gains today.

As mentioned above, US market interest rates rose significantly in the US market the previous night following the upside surprise in CPI and Governor Waller’s hawkish remarks. The reaction of financial stocks to interest rate movements is the same everywhere, whether in Japan, the US, or Europe, and the global trend of rising interest rates spread directly to the Japanese financial sector, with buying gathering for interest-rate-sensitive stocks ahead of the mega-bank earnings announcements on Friday the 13th.

[The Truth Behind the Declining Sectors: Why did ‘Rubber Products (Bridgestone)’ and ‘Air Transportation (ANA)’ fall despite lower crude oil prices?]

On the other hand, among today’s declining sectors, we will delve into the Rubber Products sector and the Air Transportation sector, which are ‘seemingly surprising declines’ at first glance.

Tire stocks were generally sold off, starting with Bridgestone, which is scheduled to announce its earnings tomorrow (the 12th). Generally, a decline in crude oil prices is often seen as a positive factor for tire stocks because it leads to lower procurement costs for naphtha and synthetic rubber, which are the main raw materials, but this time a paradoxical mechanism, the exact opposite of that, is at work.

The background to this decline is the ‘risk of the price pass-through scenario collapsing’. Until now, tire companies have been desperately pushing for price increases on their products to their customers, using the rise in the synthetic rubber market due to high crude oil prices as a justification. However, with crude oil prices falling significantly, the possibility has emerged that the synthetic rubber market, which had been on an upward trend, will turn downward instead.

If market conditions soften, the price hike negotiations that have been underway may fail, potentially collapsing the sector’s bullish scenario of improved profit margins through price pass-through. More than the benefits of cost reduction, the setback in price hike negotiations was strongly perceived as a medium- to long-term blow, resulting in selling pressure ahead of earnings.

Also, regarding the air transportation industry (ANA Holdings, etc.), until yesterday, lower crude oil prices were straightforwardly welcomed as a benefit for reduced fuel costs, but today they were hit by profit-taking due to the view that ‘if crude oil prices fall this sharply, it could lead to a global decline in demand and lower fuel surcharge revenue’. A sophisticated selection process unique to an inflationary market is taking place, examining how fluctuations in commodity prices affect not just cost increases or decreases, but also ‘pricing power (for price hikes).’

5. Thorough In-depth Analysis of Notable Individual Stocks

Today, we will thoroughly explain the trends of a major semiconductor materials company that made a bold decision on structural reform, an investment giant that showed a dramatic intraday reversal following IPO reports, and major stocks that faced harsh judgment due to upward revisions or intraday earnings.

① Resonac Holdings: Earnings announcement after the close & execution of bold structural reform: the traditional ‘sale of the graphite electrode business for electric furnaces’

Resonac Holdings (formerly Showa Denko), a major chemical company boasting the world’s top market share in semiconductor back-end materials, performed solidly within the chemical sector during today’s trading hours and made a major announcement after the close that will significantly influence its future corporate value.

Along with the earnings announced after today’s close, the company unveiled a bold structural reform policy to sell and spin off the ‘graphite electrode (electrode rod) business for electric furnaces’, a traditional business it has handled for an extremely long time since its founding.

While the company’s graphite electrode business boasts a world-class market share, its performance volatility has been intense due to fluctuations in the steel market and increased production by Chinese competitors, which has been the main reason the company has been resigned to a conglomerate discount (low valuation due to being a conglomerate).

This decision demonstrates the management’s unwavering determination to dare to cut off a traditional business that could be called its founding business and completely concentrate management resources on high-profit, high-growth fields such as AI semiconductor package materials (back-end materials). This bold portfolio shift, which clarifies the move toward growth fields while suppressing earnings fluctuations, is likely to be highly evaluated by the stock market.

② SoftBank Group

SoftBank Group, which soared 13.8% the previous day (the 10th), started with a significant drop immediately after the opening today due to disappointment selling, partly because a loss was recorded in the earnings announced after the close.

However, when news spread during trading hours that ‘the tentative price range for the IPO of an AI company scheduled to be listed in the U.S. is being raised’, expectations that the value of assets held by the company’s Vision Fund and others, which invest in competing companies, would significantly increase swelled at once. It rapidly filled the morning’s losses and rebounded, becoming the driving force behind creating a sense of security for buying in the entire AI sector.

③ Honda (Honda Motor Co., Ltd.): Light and shadow with Toyota

Major automaker Honda announced an upward revision to its full-year earnings forecast in its earnings announcement, but it was hit by selling in today’s stock market and sank to the top of the Nikkei Average’s negative contributors.

We will explain why it was sold despite the upward revision. This is a reaction that contrasts with Toyota Motor, in the same automotive sector, which soared 16% to 17% on an upward revision last week. The upward revision figures presented by Honda were perceived as ‘insufficient’ compared to the prior market consensus forecast. As a representative value stock with a low PBR, I think it could be valued a bit more, but given the competitive environment in North America and China for the four-wheel business, it is in a situation where straightforward evaluation is difficult to progress.

④ Nissin Foods Holdings & Tokyu: Intraday/recent earnings fell short of market expectations, leading to significant drops

Even among major domestic defensive and railway stocks, the high hurdle for earnings has been highlighted.

• Nissin Foods Holdings: Announced earnings during today’s trading hours (intraday), but because profit growth did not reach market consensus expectations, it was heavily sold immediately after the announcement, dragging down the food sector.

• Tokyu: Sold off due to the assessment that the announced earnings figures fell short of market expectations, becoming a factor in the decline of the land transportation sector.

6. Future Outlook: Tomorrow’s ‘U.S. Applied Materials Earnings’ and the ‘Domestic Earnings Climax (simultaneous announcement by 3 mega-banks)’ reaching its final peak on Friday, November 13

The Tokyo market today saw the Nikkei Average rise for the third consecutive day, gaining 789 yen, for a total increase of 3,813 yen over three days, completely erasing the losses from the historic crash on November 6.

Here are the key points to watch regarding the US and Japanese earnings schedule, which will reach its climax from tomorrow, Thursday the 12th, through the day after tomorrow, Friday the 13th.

Earnings Announcement from US Semiconductor Equipment Giant: Applied Materials (AMAT)

In the US, the earnings announcement for Applied Materials, the world’s largest semiconductor equipment manufacturer, is scheduled for tomorrow (from the night of the 12th to the early morning of the 13th, Japan time). Following the strong earnings already reported by Japan’s Tokyo Electron and Advantest, if AMAT provides a strong demand outlook, it will serve as a powerful driving force for Japanese semiconductor stocks—which have already achieved a full recovery in value over the past three days—to once again aim for
the pre-crash highs (63,000 to 65,000 yen).

November 13 (Friday): The Final Peak of Domestic Corporate Earnings! All ‘3 Mega Banks (Mitsubishi UFJ, Sumitomo Mitsui, Mizuho)’ to Report

Domestic earnings announcements for the April-September period will continue daily leading up to Friday the 13th, which marks the biggest peak. Of particular note are the
‘3 Mega Banks (Mitsubishi UFJ FG, Sumitomo Mitsui FG, Mizuho FG)’, which will all announce their earnings on the 13th. Bank stocks were bought today following the rise in US market interest rates, but in addition to the expansion of core profits under the Bank of Japan’s interest rate hike environment, whether they announce upward revisions to full-year net profit, dividend increases, or further massive share buybacks will determine
the upward trend for Japanese stocks as a whole (especially TOPIX) toward the end of the year.

Portfolio Strategy After a ‘Complete Recovery’ from the Crash

The greatest truth proven by today’s market is that ‘the historic crash of 3,643 yen on November 6 was erased without a trace in just three trading days. Furthermore, the credit concerns surrounding CoreWeave, which triggered the crash, have become a thing of the past, as the company’s actual earnings confirmed that it is generating solid profits.’

Despite strong macroeconomic headwinds, including the upside surprise in the US October CPI and Governor Waller’s mention of a ‘0.5% rate hike,’ the fact that the Nikkei Average rose over 900 yen to recover to 61,248 yen speaks to how solid the floor for Japanese stocks is.

On the other hand, looking at individual stock reactions, Honda was sold mercilessly after failing to meet consensus despite an upward revision, and Nissin Foods Holdings and Tokyu were sold after missing expectations in their intraday earnings. In contrast, Toray, which announced strong earnings the previous day, saw intense buying for two consecutive days, and ‘serious structural reform stocks’ like Resonac, which announced the sale of its graphite electrode business after the close, are attracting attention, showing that thorough meritocratic selection continues. Additionally, one must keep an eye on secondary effects of market changes, such as falling crude oil prices leading to concerns about the stalling of price hikes for tire stocks.

Having achieved a rapid recovery of over 3,800 yen in three days, the market is expected to move while absorbing short-term profit-taking, but the underlying trend has completely returned to bullish. This is an excellent phase to ride the next upward wave toward reclaiming the 62,000 to 63,000 yen range by placing the following at the core of your portfolio: semiconductor equipment stocks while reconfirming demand with tomorrow’s US Applied Materials earnings; AI semiconductor leaders like Advantest, Tokyo Electron, and Ibiden, which have regained a sense of security following the CoreWeave earnings; and the 3 Mega Banks, which will reach their earnings announcement climax on Friday the 13th.