Nvidia earnings face a high bar, as investors watch for updates on AI competition, China, and more

Investors are bracing for a key update in the stock market’s hottest trade.

Nvidia will report fiscal first-quarter earnings results after the closing bell on Wednesday, followed by an earnings call with CEO Jensen Huang and other executives.

Investors are watching for updates on Nvidia’s place in the evolving AI race as the stock pulls back from recent record highs. Wednesday’s results are expected to be significantly stronger than the earnings print for the same quarter a year ago.

Nvidia’s first quarter results in May of 2025 came in as the US restrictions on chip exports to China posed a major headwind for the company.

This time around, Nvidia is releasing earnings just after Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang joined President Donald Trump and the US delegation for the US-China summit last week.

Huang could provide updates on where the company’s business in China stands and the impacts the chipmaker expects from the ongoing US and China relationship.

Wall Street’s earnings expectations

Analysts expect Nvidia’s first quarter revenue to come in at $79.15 billion, up from the $44.1 billion reported the year prior.

Data center revenue, which drives the majority of the company’s revenue, is projected to be $73.49 billion, compared to $39.1 billion recorded a year ago.

Consensus earnings estimates are at $1.78, up from the $0.81 recorded in the year-ago period.

Consensus estimates signal Wall Street expects Nvidia’s revenue outlook for the current quarter to be $87.2 billion.

Nvidia stock has gained over 15% since the start of 2026, bouncing back stronger on reignited AI enthusiasm. Shares closed at $220.61 on Tuesday, up about 17% year to date.

Here’s what some of Wall Street’s top analysts are watching in Nvidia’s earnings print.

The bar is high for earnings-driven stock gains, Goldman says

Expectations are high for Nvidia heading into the earnings print. The AI chipmaker has consistently delivered beat and raise results in recent years, fueling investor expectations and making it all the more difficult for the release to send the stock higher.

Goldman Sachs analysts said that it’s not a question of if the chipmaker’s sales, earnings, and guidance beats, but the magnitude of the upside relative to expectations.

“We expect a beat-and-raise quarter given positive industry supply and demand datapoints but believe the bar for stock outperformance is relatively high heading into the print,” the analysts wrote.

“Although the stock has lagged peers and now trades at a meaningful discount relative to history, we believe the stock’s multiple can re-rate if we see evidence of: (1) improving profitability metrics at hyperscalers that supports sustained spending growth; (2) proliferation of agentic AI signaling broader enterprise adoption; (3) more visibility into deployments at non-traditional customers,” they outlined.

Goldman Sachs reiterated its buy rating and $250 price target for Nvidia stock.

Citi’s thoughts on the AI chip competition checkup

Nvidia leads the AI chip game and is a huge beneficiary of Big Tech’s massive AI spending, but competition within the AI chip landscape is evolving.

Big Tech companies like Alphabet and Amazon are making their own AI chips. While these custom chips and other CPU options aren’t as advanced as Nvidia’s GPUs they offer an alternative as AI moves from the training to inference stage.

Despite the changing chip space, Citi analysts indicated they expect GPUs to represent most AI accelerators through 2028. Nvidia, along with AMD, are driving that demand.

“We nevertheless still expect NVDA will continue to capture the bulk of AI accelerators investment due to its technology leadership and large installed base,” they said.

Citi maintained a buy rating on the stock and a $300 price objective.

BofA says boosting cash returns is a “key” catalyst

Bank of America said that Nvidia stock is trading at a compelling valuation, but that the company boosting cash returns could be the key catalyst to further growth.

If the chipmaker were to boost its cash returns to shareholders it could appeal to dividend and income-focused investors and ignite further upside.

BofA pointed out that Nvidia allocated less than half of its free cash flow to dividends and buybacks from 2022 to 2025, compared to peers that returned around 80% in the same period.

“Boosting shareholder returns could expand ownership, close NVDA’s valuation gap and minimize circularity concerns (2H catalyst),” the analysts said.

Nvidia’s free cash has been dedicated to investing in the AI ecosystem, raising some worries about circular financing, concerns that BofA noted are unfair in their view.

The chipmaker isn’t the only firm prioritizing AI investing over returning cash, with Goldman raising this concern for the broader market.

Bank of America has a $320 price target and a buy rating on Nvidia stock.

Wells Fargo and BofA dismiss margin worries on input cost spikes

Concerns about the sustainability of Nvidia’s margins have emerged as the insatiable demand for compute in the training phase shifts to inference. These worries also come as input costs have surged recently.

Wells Fargo analysts explained they’re not viewing this as a headwind or a threat to Nvidia’s high margins.

“With NVIDIA’s ability to largely pass through incremental component costs, we believe the company can maintain a 74%-75% gross margin guide,” they said.

Wells Fargo recently lifted its price target to $315 and maintained a buy rating for Nvidia.

Similarly, Bank of America defended Nvidia’s ability to maintain its margins.

“Even as Rubin Ultra (with new ‘Kyber’ rack architecture) comes along in 2H27 and as HBM continues to represent a bigger part of build cost, we flag consensus still models NVDA GM at around ~74% over time, versus current ~75% range,” the analysts said.