[October 22, 2026] NVDA up 2.5%. Looking at AI stock rebound and interest rates

Good morning! This is studio AT😊

In this morning’s US stock market, AI-related stocks were bought again. While the strength of small-cap stocks stood out the previous day, this time the NASDAQ is leading the rise.

It’s a bit of a relief to see stock prices recover. However, what caught my attention is that long-term interest rates haven’t fallen much even though stocks rose. Today, I will look at the “overall market environment” and the “individual company details” separately📊

📈 First, the US market on October 21

The following are the US regular trading closing prices for Wednesday, October 21, 2026. This corresponds to trading that ended early in the morning on October 22, Japan time. Index units are in points, and percentage changes are compared to the previous day.

• S&P 500: 7,757.17 (+44.60, approx. +0.6%)

• NASDAQ Composite: 26,702.86 (+278.04, approx. +1.1%)

• Dow: 52,856.09 (+360.21, approx. +0.7%)

• Russell 2000: 2,781.02 (+7.60, approx. +0.3%)

NVDA rose about 2.5% in regular trading that day. The US 10-year Treasury yield was 5.12% at the end of the day, the same level as the previous day’s close. (Source: AP)

🌍 Macro: Don’t explain it just by falling interest rates

We often hear that if interest rates fall, it’s a tailwind for stocks. But this time, the 10-year Treasury yield fell temporarily and then returned. Looking at the closing numbers, it was a day that is hard to summarize as “it went up because interest rates fell significantly.”

From here on is my perspective. Interest rates are related to the valuation of future earnings that companies will generate and borrowing costs. If stock prices rise while interest rates remain high, I want to check in the earnings reports how strong the expectations for the profits supporting that are.

I want to look at the strong demand for AI and the ability to continue that investment without strain separately. Even if sales grow, if the burden of equipment and borrowing increases, the money remaining on hand may not increase as much as expected.

On days like this when the NASDAQ outperforms small-cap stocks, I want to see if the buying spreads in the next trading session, rather than judging the business sentiment of a wide range of companies based solely on the rise of the index.

🔎 Micro: Is AI demand reflected in company figures?

The AP reported that SpaceX’s better-than-expected profits supported AI-related stocks. Also, Supermicro, which handles AI servers, indicated an upward revision in its sales outlook against the backdrop of demand for AI platforms. On the other hand, for Netflix, even though profits exceeded expectations, there were concerns about its future sales growth outlook.

It’s difficult that even with the same “good earnings,” the subsequent stock prices don’t necessarily align.

If it were me, I would read earnings materials in this order:

• Sales: Is demand increasing? Is it not just a one-time large project?

• Profit margins: As sales increase, is profit also being retained?

• Cash: What is the balance between operating cash flow and capital expenditure?

• Outlook: Is the company explaining that growth will continue into the next quarter?

In the AI sector specifically, companies that sell GPUs, companies that assemble servers, and companies that rent out equipment to provide services all have different ways of spending money. I want to avoid grouping them together just because they are all AI-related, and instead focus on where each company is actually generating its profits.

💡 Things I want to check the day after a rise

When NVDA rises, I start to get interested in other semiconductor stocks as well. However, if I increase my purchase amount just by looking at the rate of increase, I am likely to be swayed by price movements.

First, I check whether long-term interest rates are trending upward again. Then, I line up the earnings and stock prices of the companies I am interested in to consider how much expectation is currently baked into the price.

Leaving room to consider starting with a small amount allows me to wait for the next catalyst without panicking. This morning, rather than “chasing because it went up,” I feel like opening up the materials for the companies I was interested in once again 😊

I hope the perspective of looking at sales, profit margins, and cash separately will be useful for your stock selection as well.

📱 I also post on X

I also summarize news on indices, interest rates, and semiconductors briefly on X.
studio AT’s X: @studioAT3

※ This article is for information organization and personal analysis, and does not recommend the buying or selling of any specific stock.

Sources

・AP News: How major US stock indexes fared Wednesday 10/21/2026
https://apnews.com/article/3ec2d8c93a390023ef8104973dea275f

・AP News: A strong profit report from SpaceX helps lift tech stocks and Wall Street
https://apnews.com/article/4fa93685cd49e51e7ff0d840fdd38b0d

・Supermicro Official Newsroom: Announcement regarding preliminary results for the first quarter of fiscal year 2027
https://www.supermicro.com/en/newsroom/pressreleases

※ Market figures are the regular trading closing prices for October 21, 2026, and bond yields are the reported values at the end of the same day. Price movements in after-hours trading are not included.