[October 4, 2026 – Extra Edition] What to watch in US stocks this week? Summarizing FOMC minutes, interest rates, and AI investment
I have compiled information that is easy for stock market beginners to read and that I want you to know more about. Let’s also pay attention to the movements of indices and interest rate trends that you should definitely watch every time!
This time is an extra edition.
There was a lot going on this week, wasn’t there?😊
I imagine many of you saw your portfolios go up as stock prices rose.💸
My mood is lifted, but I have the impression that there were many movements to be concerned about!
When you follow the daily price movements,
“Today is the employment report”
“Today is interest rates”
“Today is MU”
“Today is AI news”
you inevitably end up looking at the market on a day-to-day basis.
So, this time, I would like to take a step back and look at the bigger picture,
“What happened last week”
and,
“What should we keep an eye on this week”
I would like to organize these points.
In conclusion, the important points for looking at US stocks this week are:
・US 10-year Treasury yield ・FOMC minutes ・Service sector economy ・Continuity of AI capital investment
These are the four points.
■ First, let’s check the current situation
This is the US market as of the most recent date, October 2nd.
・S&P 500: 7,722.72 +0.7% ・NASDAQ: 27,190.86 +1.2% ・NY Dow: 51,176.96 +0.5% ・Russell 2000: 2,832.90 +0.9% ・US 10-year Treasury yield: 5.24% ・VIX: 15.31 ・Dollar-Yen: 157.86 yen
On a weekly basis,
・S&P 500: -0.3% ・NASDAQ: +0.5% ・NY Dow: -1.3% ・Russell 2000: -0.2%
was the result.
Looking only at Friday, it was a fairly good market.
However, on a weekly basis, everything except the NASDAQ was negative.
In other words,
“The entire US stock market has completely returned to a bullish trend”
rather than that,
“AI and large-cap tech are supporting the market”
is the structure that continues.
■ Major News ① Employment has become quite weak
In the September employment report released on Friday, non-farm payrolls were only +29,000.
Market expectations were about +90,000.
Furthermore, July and August were also revised downward by a total of 60,000.
The unemployment rate also,
4.1% → 4.2%
rose to.
And the growth in average hourly earnings is also slowing down.
At first glance,
“If employment is bad, stocks are also bad”
you would think, right?
But this time it was the opposite.
Employment is weak
↓
The necessity for the Fed to raise interest rates further in October has decreased
↓
Caution regarding rising interest rates has receded slightly
↓
NASDAQ and growth stocks are being bought
That is how the flow went.
This is the big reason why the NASDAQ rose 1.2% on Friday.
As I have been writing often lately,
“Bad economic indicators = stock price decline”
is not necessarily true.
In the current market,
you need to think as far as
“how the FRB will act after seeing those numbers.”
■ Major News ② Even so, the 10-year bond is over 5%
However, this point is extremely important.
Despite the weak employment statistics, the US 10-year bond yield is ultimately in the 5% range.
The 10-year bond yield announced by the FRB on October 2nd was 5.24%.
In the market, it temporarily rose to 5.34%, hitting its highest level in about 24 years.
This is quite high.
Why are interest rates high even though employment is weak?
The reason is,
because “inflation” is still scarier than the “economy.”
Crude oil and diesel prices.
Tariffs.
Supply chains.
Fiscal policy.
Due to these factors,
“Employment is weakening slightly, but won’t inflation be difficult to bring down?”
This caution remains.
In other words, the current market is in a tug-of-war between:
Employment
→ Hard to raise interest rates
On the other hand,
Inflation
→ Hard to lower interest rates
This is the tug-of-war.
This week, I want to keep an eye on the US 10-year Treasury yield even more than stock prices.
■ Major News ③ Confirming the strength of AI demand with MU earnings
And last week, what was personally quite important was Micron’s earnings.
MU reported very strong numbers.
Quarterly revenue was a record high of $54.23 billion.
Furthermore, the revenue forecast for the next quarter is $61.5 billion.
This significantly exceeded the market expectation of approximately $57 billion.
What is important is that
“Memory is still selling”
is not just a simple story.
Demand is extremely strong, centered on HBM for AI, and long-term purchase agreements for Micron are also increasing.
In other words,
NVIDIA GPU
↓
Micron HBM
↓
Data Center
↓
Cloud
This means it is highly likely that demand for the entire AI infrastructure is still continuing.
This is also important for those watching NVDA.
It is not just NVIDIA that is saying,
“AI demand is strong,”
but the same answer is coming back from memory companies as well.
■ Major News ④ The scale of AI investment is becoming even more massive
Another thing that cannot be overlooked is the capital investment in AI infrastructure.
Regarding the relationship between Anthropic and Broadcom, it was reported that Broadcom may provide up to $42 billion in funding to support the use of AI chips and computing infrastructure.
The scale of Anthropic’s five-year contract for Broadcom-made chips is said to exceed $125 billion.
The numbers are getting quite large.
What we can understand from this is that
the main players in AI investment are
not just “buying GPUs,”
but are expanding to
• GPUs• Dedicated AI chips• Memory• Networks• Cloud• Data centers• Power
as well.
As I wrote in a previous article,
…
The trend that “GPUs are not the only stars of AI”
is becoming increasingly strong.
■ AI companies also face a new theme: safety
On the other hand, there is not only positive news regarding AI.
The US government and
NVIDIA
OpenAI
Anthropic
Meta
Google
and other AI companies are moving forward with voluntary agreements regarding AI safety.
As AI becomes rapidly smarter,
“How much freedom should be allowed in development?”
has become a full-scale policy theme.
In other words, when looking at AI investment,
demand
is not the only thing to watch; we must also look at
regulation
.
If regulations are placed on the development speed of AI companies in the future, it could potentially affect the pace of capital expenditure.
Conversely, it is also possible that computational demand for safety verification will increase.
One more item has been added to the list of things to watch in the AI market.
■ So, what should we watch this week?
This is the most important part of this article.
I will summarize the events to check from October 5th to 9th.
■ Monday, October 5: ISM Services PMI
Starting with Monday.
The ISM Services PMI will be released.
In the US economy, the service sector accounts for a larger share than the manufacturing sector.
Therefore,
“Is the US economy really weakening?”
is very important to observe.
In particular, this time,
the employment component
is what I want to look at.
In Friday’s employment report, it fell to +29,000.
If employment in the service sector is also weak,
“The slowdown in employment is not temporary”
will become a stronger view.
If that happens, expectations for an additional interest rate hike in October will likely recede further.
■ Tuesday, October 6: US Trade Balance
Tuesday is the US trade balance for August.
It may look like a somewhat dull indicator, but it is important this time.
The trade deficit in goods for August has expanded significantly.
On the other hand, looking at imports, capital goods imports related to AI capital investment are increasing.
In other words,
“The trade deficit is large”
is not the only thing; we also need to look at
“what is being imported.”
We need to see if AI capital investment continues to increase.
I would like to pay attention to this as well.
■ Wednesday, October 7: The biggest event of the week, the “FOMC minutes”
Personally, I think this is the most important thing this week.
The minutes from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting will be released.
At the September FOMC, the Fed raised interest rates by 0.25%.
But now,
employment is weak.
Therefore, the market is starting to wonder,
“Are they really going to raise rates again in October?”
The market is starting to think this.
In the minutes, I will check:
• How many people strongly supported additional rate hikes • How cautious they are about inflation • What they thought about employment • How cautious they were about continuing rate hikes
I will confirm these points.
If they are more hawkish than the market expects,
that is something to watch.
Rising 10-year Treasury yields
↓
Headwinds for NASDAQ
tends to occur.
Conversely,
“There is no need to rush into additional rate hikes”
if the content is like that,
Lower interest rates
↓
Tailwinds for AI and tech stocks
could be the result.
Wednesday is a must-check.
■ October 8 (Thursday) FRB Governor Waller’s speech
On Thursday, FRB Governor Waller will give a speech on the economic outlook.
Since it is after the employment statistics and the FOMC minutes,
“How the FRB views the current situation”
will be material for judgment.
The current market sees interest rates move significantly based on a single word from FRB officials.
Personally, more than stock prices,
Speech
↓
10-year Treasury
↓
NASDAQ
I recommend watching in this order.
■ There is no “CPI” this week
Let’s organize this point as well.
The next CPI is on October 14.
In short, this week is
not about “the real deal on inflation.”
This week is
a week to confirm
what the Fed is thinking following the employment report.
And then, CPI on October 14th next week.
PPI on October 15th.
This is where the reality check on inflation begins again.
■ This week, I am only watching these four things
There is no need to follow all the news.
This week, I will focus on
1. US 10-year Treasury yield, 2. ISM Services employment, 3. FOMC minutes, 4. AI-related company capital expenditure news
I will focus on these four things.
Especially the 10-year yield.
It is currently at 5.24%.
If it goes
5.24% -> 5.1% -> below 5%
then it will be a very favorable environment for the NASDAQ.
Conversely,
if it rises, we must be cautious.
5.3%
↓
5.4%
If it becomes this, the overall index will struggle even if AI stocks are strong.
■ And Q4 has begun
Finally, there is some interesting data.
Historically, the fourth quarter is a period when US stocks tend to be strong.
According to Reuters, the average fourth-quarter return for the S&P 500 is approximately +4.2%.
Furthermore, it is said to be +6.4% on average in midterm election years.
Of course,
“It will go up because it’s October”
is not that simple.
Right now, the 10-year Treasury yield is over 5%.
Crude oil is also high.
The situation in the Middle East is also unstable.
Therefore, this year could potentially be a more difficult Q4 than usual.
However,
AI company earnings are strong
+
employment cools down a bit
+
interest rates fall
If these conditions are met, there is a possibility of an interesting development toward the end of the year.
■ Summary of this time
There was quite a lot of material last week.
・September non-farm payrolls slowed to +29,000 ・NASDAQ was +1.2% on Friday ・MU had strong earnings reaffirming the strength of AI memory demand ・US 10-year Treasury yield remains over 5% ・AI infrastructure investment is expanding beyond GPUs ・AI safety regulation is also becoming a new theme
And this week,
October 5
→ ISM Services
October 6
→ US Trade Balance
October 7
→ FOMC Minutes
October 8
→ Fed Governor Waller speaks
is the schedule.
Personally,
“How many percent will stock prices rise this week”
rather than,
“How seriously the Fed views the slowdown in employment”
is what I want to confirm.
Once that is understood,
the next CPI
↓
October FOMC
the market’s direction toward these will also gradually become clear.
This week as well,
AI
Interest Rates
Fed
Let’s watch the market together, focusing on these three things 📈
I also post about US stocks, AI-related stocks, and market trends on X.
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[Sources]
・AP News October 2, 2026
“How major US stock indexes fared Friday 10/2/2026”
・U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
“The Employment Situation – September 2026”
・Federal Reserve
“Calendar: October 2026”
“FOMC Meeting Minutes Schedule”
・U.S. Department of the Treasury
“Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates”
・Bureau of Economic Analysis
“Release Schedule”
・Institute for Supply Management
“ISM PMI Report Release Calendar”
・Reuters September 30, 2026
Reports on Micron earnings and AI memory demand
・Reuters October 1, 2026
Reports on Anthropic and Broadcom AI infrastructure contracts
・Reuters October 2, 2026
“Wall St Week Ahead: Spiking bond yields, midterms, earnings to test US stocks’ typical fourth-quarter strength”
・Reuters October 3, 2026
Reports on AI safety and voluntary safety standards between the US government and AI companies
・Cboe
VIX Index