October 8 Market Summary | Nikkei Average down 993 yen, falls below 70,000; Profit-taking in AI/semiconductors + caution over rising interest rates
Hello! This is nico~Stock Channel~😊
The Tokyo stock market on October 8 saw the Nikkei Average fall significantly for the second consecutive day.
Selling dominated following the decline in U.S. stocks the previous day, with profit-taking spreading primarily among AI and semiconductor-related stocks.
Furthermore, concerns over rising global long-term interest rates added pressure, leading to declines across a wide range of sectors including banking, machinery, non-ferrous metals, and electric appliances.
Although the Nikkei Average showed some resistance to falling at times, selling intensified again in the afternoon session, and it ultimately ended the day at its low.
📊 Today’s Market Results
Nikkei Average 69,042.11 yen -993.60 yen (-1.42%)
TOPIX 4,091.46 -62.65 (-1.51%)
On the Prime Market:
* Advancers: 327 stocks
* Decliners: 1,182 stocks
* Unchanged: 43 stocks
It was a day where selling was quite widespread, with decliners accounting for over 70% of the total.
🔴 The biggest point of the day
Why it was sold is more important than the fact that it fell below 70,000 yen
Yesterday, the Nikkei Average closed at 70,035.71 yen.
Today, it fell to 69,042.11 yen.
This was a drop of approximately 994 yen, breaking below the psychological threshold of 70,000 yen.
However, the important thing here is not to simply conclude that “falling below 70,000 yen means the uptrend is over.”
Several factors have combined to cause this decline.
Main factors:
① Decline in U.S. stocks
② Profit-taking in AI/semiconductor stocks
③ Caution over high prices following a rapid rise
④ Concerns over rising global long-term interest rates
⑤ Wait-and-see approach ahead of the earnings season
In other words, it can be seen as a sudden, widespread adjustment of positions following a sharp rally.
🤖 Profit-taking in AI/semiconductor stocks
AI and semiconductor-related stocks have been the main drivers pushing the Nikkei Average up over the past few days.
However, today, profit-taking hit those core stocks.
Main movements:
* SoftBank Group
* Tokyo Electron
* Fujikura
* TDK
* Advantest
* Disco
* Kioxia
* Lasertec
These were among the stocks that weakened.
In particular, the Nikkei Average itself moves significantly based on the price movements of stocks with high index weighting.
Therefore,
AI/semiconductor stocks are sold
↓
Downward pressure on the Nikkei Average intensifies
This became the structure of the market.
📉 However, the fundamentals of AI/semiconductors have not deteriorated
This is a point to be careful about.
In the afternoon session, news was reported that Taiwan’s TSMC achieved record-high revenue for the third quarter.
Even so, the reaction of Japanese stocks was limited.
It is more natural to think that rather than “demand for semiconductors disappearing,” there is an increasing number of investors who want to lock in profits on semiconductor stocks that have already risen significantly.
In fact, there were moments when Advantest was bought back in the morning session.
In other words, the important perspective is not that “AI/semiconductors are finished,” but that “a short-term adjustment is occurring because the rise in AI/semiconductor stocks was too rapid.”
💰 Caution over rising interest rates also acts as a weight
There was another important factor in today’s market.
That is the expectation of higher interest rates.
Caution over rising long-term interest rates globally intensified, capping the upside of the stock market.
In particular, when caution over rising interest rates strengthens, it tends to become a headwind for:
* High P/E stocks
* Stocks with high growth expectations
* AI-related stocks
On the other hand, for banking stocks, “rising interest rates” does not always mean “certain rise.”
Today, banking stocks like Mitsubishi UFJ and Mizuho were also sold.
In other words, it is considered that today, risk aversion across the entire stock market was stronger than buying of banking stocks due to rising interest rates.
📊 TOPIX also fell significantly
Today’s characteristic was not limited to the Nikkei Average.
TOPIX also fell significantly to:
4,091.46 points
-1.51% from the previous day
Furthermore, 1,182 stocks fell on the Prime Market.
This is not a market where “only some large-cap stocks in the Nikkei Average fell.”
It indicates that selling spread across the entire market.
🏭 Sectors with notable declines
Today, 26 out of 33 sectors fell, while 7 sectors rose.
Particularly weak were:
* Non-ferrous metals
* Glass and ceramics
* Banks
* Machinery
* Metal products
* Electric appliances
* Securities
* Construction
Non-ferrous metal stocks like Furukawa Electric and Fujikura also fell significantly.
Stocks that were strong until yesterday were in a situation where they were more susceptible to the impact of profit-taking.
🚢 On the other hand, shipping and services were firm
Although it was a market close to a broad decline, not all stocks were sold.
Among the sectors that rose,
🚢 Shipping
(NYK Line, Kawasaki Kisen, etc.)
💻 Services
(Recruit, En-Japan, etc.) were relatively solid.
Also,
* Recruit Holdings
* Trend Micro
* Tsuruha Holdings
were also firm.
From this, it is possible that funds that were concentrated in AI/semiconductors are moving to some other themes.
🛡️ Buying in cybersecurity-related stocks
Today, we also saw relatively strong movements in cybersecurity-related stocks such as
* TechMatrix
* Digital Arts
* JBCC HD
. Recently, capital has been flowing not only into AI and semiconductors but also into individual themes like cybersecurity.
In phases where AI-related stocks are adjusting, it is important to watch ‘which theme capital will flow into next.’
📅 Earnings season is approaching
What will be important for Japanese stocks from here on is corporate earnings.
With earnings announcements from notable companies like 7&i Holdings and Fast Retailing approaching, investors’ wait-and-see stance has strengthened.
The market trend until now has been:
AI/Semiconductors
↓
Nikkei Average rises
↓
Recovers 70,000 yen
This flow had become very strong.
From here, we are moving into a phase of confirming ‘to what extent corporate profits are actually growing.’
🔎 Points to watch from tomorrow onwards
① Can it recover the 70,000 yen level again?
Today it closed at 69,042 yen.
It fell below the psychological milestone of 70,000 yen.
From tomorrow, it is important to see if it can stop falling around the 69,000 to 70,000 yen range.
② Can AI/semiconductor stocks rebound?
Will stocks that have led the Nikkei Average so far, such as
* Advantest
* Tokyo Electron
* SoftBank Group
* Fujikura
* TDK
* Kioxia
, be bought again?
This is crucial for gauging the direction of the Nikkei Average.
③ Will TOPIX become strong again?
We also want to check if the TOPIX can hold its ground in the 4,000-point range, not just the Nikkei Average.
If buying returns to a wide range of stocks beyond just AI and semiconductors, the market sentiment will likely improve again.
④ Will interest rates continue to rise?
In this decline, the combination of ‘rising stock prices + rising interest rates’ is being viewed with caution.
If long-term interest rates rise further, there is a possibility that valuation adjustments in the stock market will intensify.
📝 Summary of today’s market in one sentence
‘A day where profit-taking and caution over rising interest rates overlapped with the rapid rally after recovering 70,000 yen.’
The Nikkei Average fell by about 1,000 yen and dropped below 70,000 yen.
However, it is likely too early to conclude that ‘falling below 70,000 yen means the uptrend is over.’
Rather, what I want to focus on is where the AI and semiconductor stocks that have surged will stop falling.
And whether capital will shift to stocks other than AI and semiconductors.
These are the two points.
🔮 Checkpoints from tomorrow
🟢 Bullish factors
* Stops falling around 69,000 yen
* AI/semiconductor stocks rebound
* TOPIX recovers to around 4,100 points
* Earnings results exceed market expectations
🟡 Neutral
* Consolidation around 69,000–70,000 yen
* AI/semiconductors adjust
* Capital disperses to shipping, services, security, etc.
🔴 Cautionary factors
* Clearly falls below 69,000 yen
* Decline in AI/semiconductor stocks continues
* Long-term interest rates rise further
* Earnings trigger increased caution over corporate performance
Because it is just after a rapid surge, this is a phase where we want to first confirm where the selling stops, rather than ‘buying immediately because it dropped.’
Especially now, we want to check the TOPIX, AI/semiconductors, interest rates, and earnings as a set, rather than just looking at the Nikkei Average’s price movement.