OpenAI revenue figures rattled tech stocks, but analysts see AI demand holding firm

OpenAI (Unlisted:OPAI) expects to hit or even top $70 billion in annualized revenue by the end of 2026, Bloomberg reported, citing unnamed sources, pushing back on a Financial Times report that the company would fall about $20 billion short of that figure.

The FT report put OpenAI under scrutiny Thursday. Tech stocks sold off sharply, with the Nasdaq down more than 1% and chipmakers falling more than 3%.

Kathleen Brooks, research director at XTB attributed the decline to the revenue figures and said they raised questions about the sustainability of the AI capital spending boom just ahead of earnings season.

Bloomberg’s sources said the lower number was merely “a projection.”

Wedbush, citing the FT and Reuters, said OpenAI is currently tracking to $50 billion in annualized revenue, compared with the $70 billion that had been floated. Reuters suggested the higher figure may have come from applying Anthropic‘s methodology to OpenAI’s revenue streams. OpenAI’s approach nets out expenses paid to cloud partners on sales that pass through those partners.

Wedbush noted that both numbers are well above the $20 billion run rate OpenAI reportedly had entering the year. The firm said it does not believe the recent recovery in AI supply chain stocks rested on an explicit OpenAI revenue growth number, and pointed to robust demand as the better signal of the industry’s health.

Brooks said AI trade skepticism has never lasted long, noting that recent months have brought waves of inflows alongside waves of outflows.

Doubts over OpenAI’s revenue faded Friday as US equities opened higher. Brooks added that signs of cooling AI growth and a fall in Treasury yields could trigger a rotation back into cyclical sectors, giving non-tech names a chance to catch up.

Separately, OpenAI issued a statement Friday defending the firing of three safety researchers. The researchers had suggested they were let go for raising safety concerns.