SanDisk Stock Has Soared More Than 1,000% — Cathie Wood Just Issued a Stark Warning

Sandisk (SNDK) has been one of the most spectacular stock market stories of 2026. The flash memory maker has seen its shares explode higher as artificial intelligence data centers devour NAND storage.

But a warning from Cathie Wood has cast a shadow over the entire memory chip sector. The ARK Invest cofounder says Chinese competitors could turn today’s boom into tomorrow’s bust. “The trend is up, but the cycles are vicious,” Wood told investors in Hong Kong. Her words hit hard. Memory stocks tumbled. SanDisk fell sharply in sympathy.

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Now investors face a tough question. Is this just a temporary scare, or is Wood pointing to something deeper about the cyclical nature of memory chips? SanDisk is set to report its first-quarter 2027 earnings on October 29. That report will be a major test. Here’s what you need to know before then.

A Wild Ride for Sandisk Shareholders

Sandisk stock has been on an absolute roller coaster. Over the past year, shares have gained a stunning 1,000%. The company went public as a standalone entity in February 2025 at just 38.5 per share. It now trades above 1400. That is a life-changing return for early investors.

The catalysts have been powerful: AI data centers need massive amounts of NAND flash memory, Sandisk is one of the few major suppliers, pricing has soared, gross margins hit 84.6% in the latest quarter, and the company has locked in multiyear supply agreements with eight major clients.

The Cathie Wood Warning Explained

Cathie Wood isn’t getting any of the memory companies. That says a lot. The ARK Investment Management co-founder is a believer in disruptive innovation. Instead, she is steering clear of the traditional memory chip makers. Her explanation is easy. China is building up memory capacity.

State-backed Chinese manufacturer ChangXin Memory Technologies is increasing DRAM production. This will lead to an overwhelming supply of such a product in the market in the future. The volatility would grow somewhat if they had a couple more players coming in to add to this mix, really any of them outside China,” Wood said.

It’s a big deal for Sandisk. The memory industry has experienced booms and busts from the beginning. If the price goes up, all will increase in size. Next, provide a catch-up. Prices crash. Companies lose money. It was back in 2023 when Sandisk didn’t generate profits. Wood is cautioning that China will set the stage for an even more vicious cycle.

A threat is real but not imminent for Sandisk. The Chinese manufacturers didn’t seem to have advanced NAND technology. Sandisk, SK Hynix (SKHY), Samsung (SSNLF) and Micron (MU) are still the dominant chip suppliers for the highest-value chipsets in the AI memory space. Now, Wood’s claim has to do with the future. When China catches up, all the pricing power that creates Sandisk’s astounding margins could be lost.

SpaceX Q4 Numbers Were Stunning

Sandisk reported its fiscal fourth-quarter results on August 5, which came above analysts’ expectations. Revenue came in at $8.97 billion. That was up 372% year over year. It also beat Wall Street estimates of $8.48 billion. The company’s Datacenter segment now represents 38% of the portfolio.

Net income landed at$ 6.90 billion, working out to adjusted earnings per share of $39. That crushed the consensus estimate of $34.90, and the year-ago figure of just $0.29.

Adjusted free cash flow was massive, reaching $5.035 billion for the quarter, representing a 56% margin. The company ended the quarter with $4.762 billion in cash and cash equivalents. It also generated $7.126 billion in cash from operations.

CEO David Goeckeler was upbeat on the earnings call. “We believe the best way to return cash to investors is via share buybacks,” he said. The company repurchased $4.5 billion worth of shares during the quarter and has $15.5 billion remaining on its buyback authorization.

Looking ahead, management guided fiscal Q1 2027 revenue to between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion. That would be another massive year-over-year increase. Adjusted EPS is expected to be between $44 and $46. Gross margin should stay around 83% to 85%.

For the full fiscal year 2027, analysts project revenue of $49.14 billion, up 142% from fiscal 2026. EPS estimates for the full year sit at $208.9. That is more than triple the prior year.

Wall Street Remains Bullish but the Cycle Matters

Analysts remain overwhelmingly bullish on SNDK Stock. According to data from Barchart, Sandisk holds a consensus rating of “Strong Buy.” The average 12-month price target is $2,161. That implies a huge upside of roughly 54% from recent prices.

Mizuho recently upgraded its estimate to $2,050 from $1,875. The company attributed the strong demand to the memory space being driven by ‘agentic AI.’ Bernstein continues to have a price target of $3,000. That means a minimum of 100% upside. Prices for NAND are expected to decline, but not until well into the second quarter of this year, says analyst Mark Newman. Rosenblatt went into play with a $2,400 target. Susquehanna restated a $2,745 number.

“We believe SNDK shares will rerate to at least 3x book value given a very strong memory cycle,” said Bank of America analyst Wamsi Mohan earlier this year. Citi maintained a Buy rating with a $2,100 target in early October.

The bull case is all about one thing. This time is not like other times. Traditional boom/bust cycles might be tempered by longer-term contracts and by a boost in data center demand. Multiyear agreements provide for over half of fiscal 2027 supply that has been secured by management. If customers do not follow through, these deals offer financial guarantees of 16.5 billion.

Cathie Wood would reply that’s what they say at the start of every cycle. Even the bravest of prophets suffer setbacks in our vicious cycles.

On the date of publication, Nauman Khan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com