Social Security Checks Are on Track for a $73 Raise in 2027 and Medicare’s Premium Hike Could Take a Big Bite Out of It

Quick Read

• Social Security’s 2027 COLA is estimated to fall between 3.4% and 3.6%, which would translate to roughly a $73 monthly raise for the average recipient receiving $2,086.

• Medicare Part B premium increases could shrink that $73 raise to around $55, as Part B costs rose nearly $18 in 2026 alone.

• Official 2027 COLA and Part B premium figures arrive in fall, so seniors should wait before adjusting financial plans.

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Social Security’s cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) announcement is the most important day of the year for many retirees. For those who get most or all of their retirement income from Social Security, any raise that arrives is crucial.

Current estimates are calling for a fairly substantial COLA in 2027. But it’s important not to get too hung up on that number for one big reason.

Medicare Part B hikes could erode next year’s raise

It’s important to understand that until the Social Security Administration makes the 2027 COLA official, any number you see now is merely an estimate. However, it’s an estimate based on inflation readings, so it’s hardly a guess in the dark.

Following July’s Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), independent Social Security analyst Mary Johnson updated her 2027 COLA projection to 3.4%. The Senior Citizens League has a similar, albeit slightly higher estimate at 3.6%.

If we take the average between the two projections above, it means Social Security benefits could increase 3.5% in 2027. And when we apply that raise to the average monthly benefit of $2,086 today, it’s a roughly $73 boost.

That would be a nice lift for the typical Social Security recipient. But unfortunately, many seniors could lose out on a chunk of their upcoming COLA due to rising Medicare Part B costs.

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Seniors who are signed up for both Social Security and Medicare have to pay for Part B, which covers outpatient services, out of their monthly benefits. If the cost of Part B rises substantially, seniors will have less of a net COLA to enjoy.

In 2026, the cost of Medicare Part B rose almost $18 compared to 2025. If there’s a similar increase next year, it could leave the average Social Security recipient with a boost of $55 instead of $73 based on the projections above.

That’s still a nice increase. But a $55 boost doesn’t have quite the same ring as a $73 raise.

More information needs to come in on next year’s COLA

Before you start making financial plans for the new year, recognize that there’s little sense in doing so until you have two key pieces of information — an official COLA and the standard Part B premium. Both of these details should become available in the fall, and the COLA is likely to get announced first based on what’s happened in previous years.

Of course, if the CPI-W shifts a lot in August and September, next year’s COLA could come in higher or lower than 3.4% to 3.6%, which changes the math significantly. The more generous next year’s COLA is, the more likely seniors are to be left with a decent amount of money after a Part B hike is applied.

It’s also worth noting that next year’s Part B increase may not be as substantial as it was in 2026. But even a small hike could hurt seniors who are hoping for a large COLA in the new year to help them keep up with the rising costs they’ve been grappling with all year.

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