Social Security Cut: Who Could Lose What in 2032?
Social Security could cut retirement benefits by 22 percent in six years, according to the latest projections, as its primary trust fund—the Old-Age and Survivors Insurance (OASI)—is expected to be depleted in the fourth quarter of 2032, unless Congress takes action.
At that point, there will only be enough money to pay 78 percent of total scheduled benefits, the Social Security Administration (SSA) said. And that will happen while the number of participants in Social Security is expected to continue growing faster than the overall population in the coming decade, as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects, estimating that the number of people age 65 or older in the U.S. will rise by 15 percent from 2027 to 2036. It helps to understand the challenges faced by the Social Security program to know that it is now almost three times what it was 50 years ago.
The CBO has even more dire projections than SSA, as it expects the retirement trust fund to be depleted by mid-2032 instead of the fourth quarter of the same year, and for retirement benefits to face cuts as deep as 26 percent. By the end of the century, cuts will rise to 40 percent, according to the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget. Social Security trustees project a 38 percent cut by 2100 if Congress does not take legislative action.
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The benefit cuts expected for 2032 would hit recipients who have been retired for decades as well as those retiring in coming years, who will receive much smaller checks to pay for housing, food, and medical bills. For Americans already struggling with the rising cost of living and concerned about the direction taken by the U.S. economy, lower retirement benefits paint a darker picture for the future.
Forty-three percent of Americans rely on Social Security for the majority of their retirement income, according to AARP—the equivalent of more than 25 million families.
How A 22 Percent Cut Could Affect Beneficiaries’ Monthly Budgets
As of September 2026, 55.08 million retired workers in the U.S.—about 77 percent of all beneficiaries—received an average Social Security benefit of $2,088 per month, approximately $25,065 per year, official data shows. A 22 percent cut in 2032 would cost new retirees $459 per month, or $5,508 annually.
Cost-of-living adjustments will be unable to offset this loss. The 2027 COLA adjustment, announced on October 14, will be 3.6 percent, an increase that pales compared to the 22 percent cut to benefits expected by late 2032. It is unlikely that any COLA could make up for a 22 percent one-time cut.
Spouses of retired workers got an average benefit of $986.68 per month as of September 2026, while children of retired workers received an average of $962.37 per month. With a 22 percent cut, they would receive $217 and $212 less per month.
According to estimates by the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, average monthly benefit cuts would surpass $500 in 29 states, with the largest cuts impacting retirees in Connecticut ($556), New Jersey ($554), New Hampshire ($553), Delaware ($549), Maryland ($541), Washington ($531), Minnesota ($530), Massachusetts ($527), Michigan ($523), and Utah ($523).
At the national level, the loss will be of $500, the committee estimates.
Some states will be impacted more than others, as they have a larger senior population. These include Maine (22.9 percent), West Virginia (22.4 percent), Vermont (22.0 percent), Delaware, (21.1 percent), Montana (21.0 percent), New Hampshire (21.0 percent), South Carolina (20.6 percent), Wisconsin (20.2 percent), Michigan (19.8 percent), and Pennsylvania (19.8 percent). At the national level, according to the committee, 17.7 percent of the population will be affected by cuts.
What Can Social Security Recipients Do
Older Americans retiring in 2032 would have to save an additional $137,280 to offset the gap that benefit cuts are expected to create, according to PensionBee’s 2026 Social Security Shortfall Index. That is more than the median U.S. retirement account balance of $87,000. Younger generations, who are facing deeper cuts, might need to save even more.
A large, bipartisan majority of Americans believe that Congress should intervene to rescue Social Security, raising taxes to strengthen the program’s 75 million beneficiaries rely on, according to a 2024 AARP-funded survey from the National Academy of Social Insurance (NASI).
Eighty-five percent of 2,243 people surveyed between October and November 2024 said benefit levels should be maintained or increased even if it means higher taxes for some or all Americans, with support spreading across party lines.
What Policymakers Can Do to Avoid Cuts
Both Republicans and Democratic lawmakers agree that reform is needed to avoid future cuts, though there has been no common vision for the solution to the existing problem.
However, things may change now that Democrats have won control of both the House and the Senate with the biggest congressional landslide in 50 years. Among the proposals is one pushed forward by Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren and Republican Senator Bernie Moreno in a New York Times op-ed that was published in June, suggesting raising Social Security taxes on the wealthiest Americans.
The Warren–Moreno Social Security Plan would eliminate the existing cap, requiring wealthy taxpayers to pay Social Security tax on earnings above the current annual limit of $184,500. While the proposal has been discussed, a formal bill has not yet been introduced.
Republicans have expressed support for gradually raising the Social Security retirement age and reducing benefits for higher earners.
Senator Bernie Sanders, a Vermont independent who caucuses with Democrats in the upper chamber, said on Saturday that, as the next chair of the Social Security Subcommittee, “a top priority will be to expand Social Security benefits by at least $2,400 a year & extend Social Security’s solvency for generations.”
He wrote on X that he will do so “by scrapping the cap & demanding that the wealthy pay their fair share of taxes.”
The idea received criticism from Senator Bill Cassidy, a Louisiana Republican, who said on Sunday the plan “puts a 12.4% tax on people who are a long way from being millionaires or billionaires.”
The senator added on X: “Think of two ICU nurses married to each other. This is in addition to the estimated 14% tax required to pay for Medicare for All. Why not copy what Republicans and Democrats voted for 20 years ago in another government retirement system, use the power of the US economy to benefit Social Security.”
Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Ben Kelly and Anthony Murray.