Social Security Recipients Say Tariffs Will Outpace COLA Increase—Poll

A growing number of Social Security recipients fear that rising tariffs will push prices higher than their annual cost‑of‑living adjustment can cover, according to a new nationwide survey.

The poll, conducted by the Nationwide Retirement Institute, found that 66 percent of current Social Security recipients believe tariffs will drive inflation beyond what the program’s yearly COLA can offset. 

Among Americans who expect to receive benefits in the future, the concern was even higher, at 69 percent.

Why It Matters

Social Security benefits remain a primary source of income for millions of retirees, many of whom lack significant savings beyond their monthly checks. When inflation increases, including through tariffs, COLA increases may not be enough to preserve purchasing power.

What To Know

Social Security’s COLA is designed to help benefits keep pace with inflation, but recipients say it increasingly falls short, especially when prices rise quickly or unevenly.

The survey found that 61 percent of current Social Security recipients said they could not financially survive missing even half of a monthly payment.

Meanwhile, 52 percent said they have cut back on discretionary spending, such as travel or dining out, and 31 percent said they have reduced spending on essentials, including groceries and medications.

Tariff‑related price increases also tend to show up quickly in areas that matter most to retirees, including housing, food and health care. Those costs often rise faster than the broader inflation measures used to calculate COLAs.

“Seniors are already feeling squeezed, and tariffs are just another layer added onto rising everyday costs,” Kevin Thompson, the CEO of 9i Capital Group and the host of the 9innings podcast, told Newsweek. “The reality is retirees spend most of their income on necessities like food, healthcare, utilities, and insurance, which are usually the first things impacted when prices rise.”

The COLA formula also relies on the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI‑W), which is backward‑looking and may not fully capture sudden price spikes caused by trade policy changes.

“This year has been yet another reminder of how fragile pricing can be when so many varying economic factors come into play, factors that may not be readily seen when the initial COLA decision is made,” Alex Beene, a financial literacy instructor for the University of Tennessee at Martin, told Newsweek. “For seniors, the reality is they may have to yet again plan more diligently to manage their limited income in the year ahead if the estimated boost doesn’t match actual inflation.”

Nationwide found that fear about the future of Social Security is widespread across generations, with many Americans skeptical that benefits will be sufficient or even available by the time they retire.

Among all respondents, more than four in five Americans expressed concern about the long‑term viability of Social Security, while many younger respondents doubted they would ever receive full benefits. 

What Happens Next

For now, the poll shows that Social Security recipients are bracing for tariffs to push costs even higher, with many worried their benefits won’t keep up.

“Just because the Social Security check goes up on paper does not mean purchasing power improves. Medicare premiums are outpacing COLAs as well as prescription drug prices and groceries.  The sword has become double-edged,” Thompson said.

“More retirees will be forced to pull from retirement accounts faster, lean on debt, or cut spending altogether just to maintain their current lifestyle.”